Comments on: Twinkies in the Outfield

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Fri, 29 May 2009 18:01:16 +0000

Yeah, sometimes I forget when I click on articles over here that they are written from a fantasy perspective.

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Fri, 29 May 2009 01:30:40 +0000

I should have been more clear: Young is only more valuable than Gomez from a fantasy perspective (something I figured would be more clear given that this is the fantasy blog on the site, but something I should have emphasized). No matter how many bags you steal, a .250 batting average is such a negative in most formats (roto especially), that a guy that should give you .290 and 15/15 has to be more valuable.

Because of defense, there are few non-fantasy arguments for playing Young over Gomez right now, other than perhaps that their overall development might best be served by Gomez going down to AAA to play every day and Young playing every day on the Twins. I remain pessimistic about both, though. They both hit the ball into the ground and strike out a lot, neither walks much or hits the ball with much authority.

The point about Span’s defense is well-noted. I’ll look into the reliability of UZR more, though I had thought that 300 innings was a decent sample size. It does seem obvious that the team itself doesn’t like his D much, or maybe they are blinded by Gomez’ D – in contrast, Span looks much worse. But if it’s just his arm, maybe the team would best be served by having a Damon-like CF…

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:57:55 +0000

Exactly. Using the WAR on this site, Gomez was a league average player and Young was below replacement level. You can regress the fielding numbers some, but there’s still at least a 15 run advantage to Gomez. Also, as you said Gomez is actually showing signs of improvement! Young has not shown any signs of getting better in any way. There is absolutely no argument that justifies Young playing every day over Gomez. Both are young and could improve, but Young would need to turn into Manny Ramirez to be a productive player, while Gomez would just need to start walking a bit more and hit a few homeruns.

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:53:28 +0000

Agreed. He was also really good according to UZR in right field. There’s no way he’s a terrible center fielder and an elite Right fielder. The position adjustment should just be a handful of runs.

By: DK

DK — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:16:41 +0000

You and I both know, Nick, it’s because Delmon’s so “young” and has so much “potential”!

By: Nick N.

Nick N. — Thu, 28 May 2009 15:33:00 +0000

How is Young “more valuable” than Gomez, exactly? You pull that conclusion out of nowhere at the end of your article, in spite of the fact that no evidence supports such a ridiculous claim.

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Thu, 28 May 2009 04:47:41 +0000

Span isn’t a -30 defender in center. He has had less than 300 innings in center, and UZR ratings are worthless in such a small sample size. For a better estimate of his true fielding ability, you should look at CHONE’s preseason defensive projections. He projected Span to be +6 in centerfielder using his total zone ratings from the majors and the minors.

By: Alex

Alex — Thu, 28 May 2009 02:26:52 +0000

I see what you’re saying. The good thing for the Twins is that after being guaranteed a contract with the Twins in 2010, the team has an option for 2011.

So, next season could be his last in Minnesota if he slows down in his production or if the team has other options. If he does what he’s doing right now, I’d take his production and leadership in ’11.

By: Alex

Alex — Thu, 28 May 2009 02:24:24 +0000

I agree that Span’s problem is his arm more than anything else. He has great speed and has tracked down some balls that for a lot of teams would fall in.

Young is frustrating, and while I think he’ll hit for a decent average (high .280s or so), most of his hits are singles.

By: jtr

jtr — Thu, 28 May 2009 01:32:18 +0000

I don’t mean to say Cuddyer isn’t an asset, but I don’t think he’ll sustain this sort of performance past age 31 and I’d rather not see an aging mediocre hitter sitting on the Twins bench in 3 years because he isn’t worth enough to deal.