Updating the Outfielders (OF1)
It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.
The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.
There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span‘s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.
Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.
Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.
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Why is Ethier not in the top group?
Not quite a five-category guy. Might still have some platoon issues. Maybe he belongs, but he’d be the only guy that didnt’ give stolen bases.
Ethier’s platoon splits are much better this year, and his history outside 2009 suggests an ability to hit lefties at an acceptable level. The lack of steals does change things.
BTW, why is Werth ranked so low? A little light on the AVG?
Also, doesn’t Bobby Abreu still have a little upside (fantasy-wise) to keep him on one of these lists? His AVG is down a bit, but clearly affected by a BABIP nearly 50 points lower than his career average. That has upside to rise, given that he still can run. He also seems to have a bit more pop this year.
Hamilton’s wOBA values are incorrect.
thanks
Werth’s are too. He’s at .377 I believe, not .441.
all fixed, thanks
Nothing for Corey Hart? Really strange to see Bay/Granderson/even Markakis get a mention but nothing for Hart.
What about Jay Bruce? Youd rather have Quentin than Bruce?
yeah
yup. not long-term, but right now, yup.
I agree – how can Hart not be mentioned here?
It’s a good point. I’m a little spooked by the fact that he’s approaching his career-high in home runs at the break, and the fact that he’s heavily rumored to switch from a 15-20% HR-happy park to two parks that suppress home runs by about 10-15%. That’s a big swing for a guy who’s known mostly for his power.
Jayson Werth’s stats are off as well.
Just curious how you could possibly rank Ellsbury a category above Gardner, and how Crawford isn’t the #1 ranked outfielder.
I took numbers off the rankings because I found tiers more important than number by number questions. Gardner, I’m just waiting for more information – more time – so that it’s easier to judge his true BABIP level. Given that batting average and steals are his best categories, I want to be sure that both will be elite before he joins Ellsbury. Ellsbury has put in a full season, which Gardner has not done.
Is Guerrero considered an OF for this list or just DH? Would he make the list if he was an OF?
Guerrero is absolutely an OF and should have been on this list. He’d probably go in the ‘There’s nothing wrong with’ tier.
What a joke. No Chris B. Young here?
where’s mags?
Maggs is more of a high ranked OF2 / OF3 than a low ranked OF1 in my book
Victorino?
No love for William Jefferson Clinton? Can’t keep a guy off the list just because you disagree with his politics.
What about V. wells? Too many guys with question marks here when you have a guy like Wells who has produced all year long.
What about your mom??? She has put out all year long! How could you leave her off this list??? Her contact% is awesome. Not to mention her LD%. Plus, she hasn’t been doubled up since ’99!!!
It’s just one person’s opinion, boys… lets not go nuts ’cause he left your man-crush off the list.
Gotta love stupid posts like these.
No one is “going nuts” due to any mancrushes. Just wondering why certain players that haven’t shown anything all year (Bay/Ellsbury I’m looking at you) are ranked higher than those who have (Hart/Wells).
Yes, I actually enjoy the comments here because they often raise good points. The main problem might be ‘production versus projection.’ I hear you that Hart and Wells have been great so far, but will the be better than Ellsbury and Bay going forward? Clearly, my opinion is not really. But the argument for Wells is pretty potent. Maybe he has only struggled in seasons that he was hurt, as his defenders are quick to point out.
I think that’s her VD%. Absolutely off-the-charts.
But yes, your main point is spot-on. You can civilly disagree without “What a freakin’ joke, all because you’ve got Willy Tavares ranked #213 when he should CLEARLY be no lower than #209!!1!one!
The MLB HR leader is Jose Bautista, albeit with a Quentin-ish batting average. I guess you’re not buying it?
I’m just not buying his ability to put up even an okay batting average.
No love for B.J. Upton? I would think he’d be ranked right next to Granderson who is also struggling with AVG/OBP. I’m thinking of dealing for Upton with the hope that he can only get better for the rest of the season.
need to unload an OF or two to for pitching. Just looking at the counting stats, how would these guys list in value: Willingham, Boesch, Delmon Young
Not a believer in Carlos Gonzalez at all. His BABIP is about 30 points too high, and his walk rate is abysmal. The power is legit and the numbers will probably be nice at the end of the season, but he has the makings of an extremely streaky hitter. That’s bad for H2H leagues, and I think there’s a real danger the bottom just completely falls out from underneath him.
what about david eckstein?
Jason Bay and Nick Markakis?
In other words this isn’t really an update at all but a reiteration of preseason rankings. Those two are waiver wire fodder.
They are not on any of my mixed league waiver wires, and I’ve got them ranked about 22/23 on outfielders, so poor OF2 in a mixed league, okay OF3 in a ten-teamer. This is a going-forward list, I feel comfortable with those numbers going forward. They both have been looking a little better recently, and given that these rankings are for batting average leagues, they should at least perform in that category while not hurting in R/RBI. I wouldn’t make too much noise about two guys that aren’t even officially OF1s by this list, though. See the title of their tier.
Same re:Swisher, going off of his career batting average (.251) and BABIP (.283). Given his current BABIP (.340), I see some regression coming.
No love for Swisher?