Comments on: “Verducci Effect” Candidates for 2009

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 04:52:38 +0000

I think Greg Smith will also be subject to the Greg Smith effect in 2009 (he will suck).

By: sen-baldacci

sen-baldacci — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 04:07:41 +0000

The inverted W thing is interesting. There’s obviously a lot more to it than just a snap shot arm position during delivery, and the author of that stuff has a lot of bias and lack of knowledge of the guys he judges. I’d like to know if some of these players who have ‘poor mechanics’ actually change and become less of a liability. I couldn’t find anything updated on the progression of some of these ‘doomed to fail or join the bullpen’ types. Liriano still doomed?

Getting back on topic I find it funny that much of this Verducci list is comprised of some of my main targets this offseason in fantasy. It makes me glad no one accepted my more than reasonable offers for these under proven, over used pitchers

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 02:49:35 +0000

Ricky Nolasco and Jonathan Sanchez should also be on the list.

By: joser

joser — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:02:38 +0000

While undoubtedly there are physiological reasons to pick an age around 25 as a cut-off (though every player is different) there’s a simpler reason: most starting pitchers have spent a full season or two at AAA, if not the majors, by that age. That means there’s no way they can pitch 30 more innings in the following season, since they’re already at full workload There are exceptions, of course, due to injury or late-blooming mechanics or graduation from the bullpen, but they don’t constitute a very large population.

By: Dustin

Dustin — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 20:37:26 +0000

Verducci effect MYTH*

By: Dustin

Dustin — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 20:28:21 +0000

Take this with a grain of salt.

The majority of the injured pitchers also suffer from a mechanical flaw. The “inverted W”. Look it up. It will change your perspective on who is an actual risk and who will overcome the Verducci effect.

By: RollingWave

RollingWave — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 08:11:18 +0000

I’d guess it’s the cancer thingy.

By: backtothesky

backtothesky — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 06:29:21 +0000

In reference to the hardball times article, David provides a good arguement for why his “group 1″ stats are skewed. On top of that, however, “group 2″ is assuredly skewed due to its inclusion of, to be frank, bad pitchers. Its fairly commonplace for a pitcher to come into the majors in August/September and throw fairly well against hitters that have never seen their stuff before, then the next year fizzle out simply because they aren’t worthy of being in the big leagues. That will obviously mean that they won’t have 30+ innings more in their second year, and their stats are going to be worse. Without knowing the author’s actual database for hsi study of 1000 or so pitchers, I have to imagine that scenarios like that play out much more than young stud pitchers coming in and making an instant impact, which you would have to in order to warrant such an increase in innings from year one to year two.

And belladona, Lester was a workhorse as an amateur and at the start of his career, but then had to take time off because he was diagnosed with cancer and had to undergo treatment. After he was declared cancer-free, he obvioulsy had to be eased back into baseball, as many thought he wouldn’t even be able to pitch at all. That is why he is ” a unique case.”

By: belladona

belladona — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 01:08:58 +0000

「Lester is admittedly a unique case, and it’s hard to say whether or not he faces the same injury risk as some of these other guys or not. 」
Can you explain why Lester is special case?

By: Justin

Justin — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:31:04 +0000

It is articles like these ( somewhat proven statistics/outcomes) that are the most helpful in fantasy. Keep up the good work.