Waiver Wire: Borbon and Tillman
Now that the fantasy baseball season has finally arrived, it’s time to start looking at some players that may have been overlooked in drafts. While the season is less than a week old, and there aren’t any performances we can fully trust, it’s risky to fully commit to these types of players. That said, Julio Borbon and Chris Tillman are two players that aren’t owned in many leagues that could provide significant value going forward.
Julio Borbon has his faults, but based on his playing time and ability to steal bases, he deserves to be owned in more than 5% of leagues (according to Yahoo). He’s a full-time starter in Texas, and he has the ability to steal a ton of bases if he keeps his job the entire season. On most teams, Borbon could probably act as the “designated steals guy,” or the guy on your bench that you begin starting when you are desperate for steals. While Borbon doesn’t have the strongest plate discipline, his slap hitting approach and speed on the bases make him a candidate to post a higher BABIP than normal, leading to a strong average.
This did not appear to be the case last season, however, as Borbon got off to a terrible start in 2010. In early May, Borbon was hitting below the Mendoza Line due to a depressed BABIP. His luck turned though, and Borbon hit 299/.334/.365 over his last 371 plate appearances. Due to his slow start last season, it appears fantasy owners are hesitant to take a chance on Borbon in 2011. Another reason owners may have soured on Borbon has to do with his low stolen base total from last season. While Borbon only managed to swipe 15 bags last season, he has a strong history of stealing bases throughout the minors (44 combined steals in 2009 and 53 in 2008). As long as Borbon doesn’t suffer the same BABIP induced struggles as last season, he could be a huge boost for owners in need of steals.
The fantasy world may not have known much about Chris Tillman heading into the season, but his performance from last night will make him one the most popular pickups this upcoming week (only 1% owned in Yahoo leagues). In Tillman’s first start of the season, he threw six innings of no-hit ball against the Tampa Bay Rays before being pulled due to his pitch count. Tillman has long been a top prospect of the Baltimore Orioles, and has completely dominated at every minor league level. In the majors, however, his strikeout rate plummeted to 5.31 and he allowed home runs like they were going out of style.
Was yesterday the turning point? Again, it’s too early to take the stats at face value, but this was a great way for Tillman to begin the season. Players like Tillman, who dominate the minor leagues and struggle in their initial taste of the majors, always deserve a second look in fantasy leagues. His struggles from the last two seasons make him more available to owners that still believe in his pure talent and scouting reports. No one has ever doubted Tillman’s ability, and he’s long been discussed as a top prospect, so he’s definitely the type of player worth taking a shot on this early in the season.
1
When is it time to drop David Murphy?
Most likely someone gets hurt and he gets playing time, but we could be waiting all season for that.
I cant imagine Tillman has any value. Even last night he only struck out 5 and walked 3. And when you combine that with how truly awful he has been last year(He struck out 31 and walked 31 in just over 52 innings with an ERA of 5.87. Also most scouts have jumped ship on him too. For example Goldstein on BP didn’t even have Tillman ranked in his top 10 talents under 25 for Baltimore, behind guys like LJ Hoes, Xavier Avery and Brad Bergesen and maybe even more mediocre talents. His peripherals will have to keep improving over multiple more starts before I would even consider him for one of my fantasy teams. Let others get excited by one game where he was most definitely greatly assisted by luck on hits pick him up and get heir peripherals torched.
Borbon can be interesting though and Ill do a better job watching how much he continues to play and how well he does.
does 5 strikeouts in 6 innings really deserve an “only”?
I was referring to only a 5-3 strikeout to walk ratio. My meaning probably got lost in my poor writing skills.
maybe take a shot on zach britton instead?
i think its way too early to give up write off tillman, sure he was awful last year but its not exactly impossible for him to improve/develop
I think Britton would be the better guy to take a shot on as long as hes up.
I definitely think its too early to give up on Tillman too, but I don’t think that 1 start where he was tough to hit, but had mediocre peripherals at all change the belief from statheads and scouts alike, coming into the season, that he is still very likely to be completely worthless to a fantasy or major league team.
Tillman is, without question, one of the most talented Orioles under the age of 25. Its absurd that anyone would suggest otherwise. His issue is with command and trusting his change up. Weiters forced him to trust it in the TB game and the deeper into the game he got, the better he looked.
Britton is an elite talent and should be picked up as long as he is in the rotation.
Arrieta is a guy with 4 plus pitches who, again, needs to work on his location. The thing about this team is that the pitchers don’t have to think out there, Matt puts the sign down and thats what they throw. They’ll have great pace and Mr. Weiters calls a smooth game.
I have a choice of Tillman or Guthrie. Go with Guthrie then right?
for sure. people weren’t even sure Tillman would make the Opening Day roster until Duchscherer went on the DL. if you asked me, as an O’s fan, to make an average projection for the 5 pitchers, Tillman would be the worst of the 5 (and also worse than Duchscherer if he is healthy). it would probably be, ignoring innings pitched, Guthrie = Matusz > Britton > Arrieta > Tillman.
I should add, though, that in terms of future potential, Tillman is up there with the rest of them. in fact, he was supposed to be the guy with the highest ceiling (along with Arrieta), while Matusz and Britton were more sure-fire prospects. just in terms of predicting this season, nobody has too much confidence Tillman can put it together over the course of 2011.
i have four pitches, my change is 12 plus miles slower.
i have great mound composure and i was projected to be the opening starter for 2013.