Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix developed a new model for BABIP that you might find interesting. You can read about it here:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/

You mention Stewart’s 244 BABIP (232 now, actually) and ridiculously low Coors Field Avg as reasons why we’ll see marked improvement over the second half.

One thing I noticed though is his LD %. It’s 12.5% this year vs. 25% last year – TWICE as high. It’s a factor in his lower BABIP for sure, as a higher LD rate correlates with a more sustainably higher BABIP.

His FB rate – which induces a lower BABIP – is 50%, really high even for power hitters.

I mention all this because with no AVG numbers available for Hit Ball Rates on players’ stat pages, it’s tough to see exactly where Stewart falls as far as those rates go.

MORE importantly, it would be very helpful if you guys developed a metric called “expected BABIP”… that is, considering a player’s Hit Ball Rates, what would we expect his BABIP to be? A guy like Robbie Cano, cause of his LD rate could be expected to have a higher and more sustainable BABIP than 09 Stewart, where as Stewart could be expected to have a lower BABIP (though not as low as it is now).

The standard # for judging BABIP against is 300. But we consistently see the best hitters post BABIPS much higher than that. So what are the appropriate baseline BABIPS for players with different types of Hit Ball Rates.

Perhaps dividing Hit Ball Rates into categories like these could help, placing players into the categories in which they most closely belong and then determining the expected BABIP for hit ball rates of those configurations: High LD, MED GB, LOW FB. Med LD, High GB, Low FB, etc etc etc…

Thoughts?

It’s impossible to say what SS would have similar value as Bedard TO YOU without knowing who’s on your team, where you rank in each category, and where your competition is in each category. If your rotation is Santana, Lincecum, Haren, and Sabathia, then Bedard will have less value TO YOU than he would to someone with a lousy rotation. My guess is your rotation’s not nearly that good.

Unless Hits and Runs are tightly bunched in your league and you can make up a lot of ground there, a guy like Theriot’s not gonna be the answer. Look for the SS’s who will gain you more offensive points than you’d lose on the pitching side without Bedard. Hopefully, you can find one on a contending team with a lousy rotation that could make up ground if it had Bedard – that owner will value Bedard very highly.