Week 16 Trade Possibilities
Hopefully you were able to pick up Roy Oswalt and Tim Stauffer last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.
Obtain
Kevin Youkilis – His AVG has taken a big hit since coming off the DL, falling 89 points. But nobody seriously expected him to challenge for .400, either. He is riding a modest six-game hitting streak and more importantly, is showing good power. In his last 16 games, Youkilis has a .281-5-14-13-0 fantasy line. He seems like a good bet to match last year’s power numbers, which many people doubted Youkilis could do again in 2009.
Oliver Perez – I can hear the groans already. Perez is terrible, he has no control and he is just as likely to get shelled as he is to pitch a good game. But in his first two games since being back, Perez has delivered exactly what a fantasy owner should expect from him – a W, good strikeout numbers (8 in 11 IP) and a high but acceptable ERA (4.09). I would recommend not actually watching him pitch, but in his 14 or so remaining starts if Perez delivers 6 W, a 4.00 ERA and his current 7.71 K/9, I think that would be nice production for the back of a team’s rotation from a guy likely available on the waiver wire.
Garret Anderson – Stat heads hate him because he does not walk and posts poor OBP numbers. But fantasy players like his AVG and respectable numbers in other categories. In mid-June, Anderson was hitting just .254 but since then his bat has been heating up. Over his last 30 games, Anderson is batting .336 with 17 RBIs in 107 ABs. He is no longer an everyday player, but Anderson still has the ability to hit for a high AVG and not kill you in the power categories.
Mat Latos – This week’s Padres pitcher recovering from an injury is Latos. He was ranked as one of the top HS pitchers in the 2006 draft but fell due to signability concerns. The Padres took him on the 11th round and he ended up at Broward CC. After a good JuCo season, San Diego gave him a seven-figure signing bonus before the ’07 draft. Latos missed most of the 2008 season with a strained intercostals muscle. But he was very impressive this season in the minors, going 8-1 with 1.37 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 72.1 innings combined between Single-A and Double-A, with the majority of his work occurring in the Texas League. Latos has already made one start for the Padres, where he showed a fastball that averaged 94.9 mph. He is on a strict pitch count for right now, which may limit his W potential, but he is a talented pitcher who may be under the radar of many fantasy owners.
Miguel Montero – For most of the first three months of the season, Montero was a huge disappointment. But he has a .413/.439/.683 slash line over his last 16 games. After teasing fantasy owners with glimpses of talent the past two seasons at the major league level, Montero apparently is putting it together here in July.
Exchange
Todd Helton – After last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Helton has bounced back with an impressive .324 AVG. In his last 22 games, Helton is batting .346 but it is the “emptiest” .346 you are likely ever to see. He has just 1 HR, 10 RBIs and 8 R in that span and 0 SB. Helton’s .359 BABIP is not out of line with marks he has put up in his past but it would surprise virtually nobody if that mark fell some and at this point, AVG is the only category that Helton is a plus player anymore.
A.J. Burnett – The strikeouts are down while the walks and HR allowed are up from 2008. Yet his ERA is 26 points lower than a season ago. Burnett’s FIP checks in at 90 points higher than his ERA. A slightly lower than normal .283 BABIP helps but the big thing right now is a career-best 79.5 percent strand rate. Burnett is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last six games, but that includes 14 shutout innings against the Mets, a team he will not see again this season.
Alfonso Soriano – A .279 BABIP gives hope for a second-half rebound for Soriano, but as R.J. Anderson pointed out earlier in the month, pitchers have altered their approach to Soriano and his season-long slump shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs to Soriano and his numbers have declined across the board. Outside of RBIs, Updated ZiPS has him failing to reach the fantasy numbers he put up in 2007, when he played in 135 games. Soriano is on target for 155 games this year.
Brad Penny – The good news is that he pitches for a team that scores 5.16 runs per game and his FIP is 81 points lower than his ERA. The bad news is that his spot in the rotation is hardly guaranteed. He has been a decent option in deep mixed leagues or AL-only ones, but time appears to be running out. His first start after the All-Star break (5 IP, 6 ER) was not encouraging.
Jonny Gomes – A .304/.395/.549 slash line looks great for a player bound to see more playing time with the injury to Jay Bruce. But Gomes has a .397 BABIP and he is unlikely to maintain his 18.2 HR/FB ratio going forward. Also, the Cincinnati fan base turned on Adam Dunn for his propensity to strike out often. How will they treat a full-time Gomes who has a 32.4 percent K rate this season, which would look right in line with Dunn’s Reds career?
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Helton an “empty” .346? In the past month, Helton is OPS’ing over 1.000. There are only roughly a dozen everyday players in the NL doing that. As many of the other Rockies are also hot, I’d say his 10 RBI and 8 R in that span is more a result of bad luck than a true indicator. He’s #6 in the NL among 1B for RBI this year and #9 for R. His HR are not near his career stats, which is no surprise, but he is hitting a lot of doubles (tied for #4 in MLB). While he pales in comparison to Pujols at 1B, he is pretty darn good for a 1B/3B corner slot or UTIL slot in competitive leagues.
I really want to like this column. Unforunately, its just not very good. Week after week the author recommends a “buy high, sell low” strategy. That’s not going to win many championships. By definition, trade targets should be undervalued and sell candidates should be overvalued.
Guys who are in the middle of hot streaks are not trade targets. The fact that Garret Anderson is hitting 336 in his last 30 games is exactly why you should be trying to get rid of him, not trying to trade for him. He is worth more now than he has been at any point all season. The same can be said of Montero. And I doubt any owner is going to trade Youk at much of a discount at this point.
This is also true of hyped up minor leaguers. Mat Latos has been the lead story on most fantasy baseball related websites at least once over the past week. He is worth more now than at any other point this season. Yes he does get to pitch in PETCO. But there are serious concerns… He is skipping straight from AA (after he skipped over hi-A to get there). He’s also about 50 innings away from his limit.
The reverse is true for sell candidates. This column frequently recommends owners trade away players that are in long slumps. There is some merit in cutting your losses on players that are unlikely to recover, but this column goes way too far… For instance, Evan Longoria was in the sell category last week. This is the lowest his value has been in at least a year and he certainly will be worth more going forward.
Buy low, sell high, have faith in your ability to judge players’ skill.
Buy low and sell high is, unfortunately, usually more theoretical than practical. Was anyone going to take Millwood off your hands with a serious offer this season?
Everyone knows the candidates in these two groups to the point that you’ll often get more value by keeping a “sell high” candidate than you would in trade return. If you’re dealing with owners who aren’t paying attention, you may be able to swindle someone. Those of us in leagues with competent owners have to work a little harder to find value in trades.
This column attempts, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much, to point out useful players that haven’t been hyped (in either direction) to the point that including them in a fair deal is impossible. I didn’t find this week’s particularly helpful, but some weeks it’s spot on.
Too bad everyone with half a brain in a fantasy league and a desire to win, knows about the buy low/sell high strategy. It’s the most common and thanks to the internet, the best way to hose you in a trade poposal. Since everyone reads the same websites and the flunky err expert recommends to sell high on the guy you have been shopping around, you are left with your pants down. All the hard work trying to convince an owner to give up his flailing stud for your overachiever has vanished. The more information you have about players, the worse the fantasy experience becomes. No more hosing rookie owners and catching someone napping. So now we are forced to employ different strategies to stay ahead of the curve. There is nothing wrong with buying high, it holds the same risk as buying low. It just makes a fantasy columnist appear smarter by never taking a chance. Any meatball can recommend buy low/sell high candidates. Sell low is also a good strategy. I bet 95% of Rollins owners aren’t in the hunt in their leagues. Why? Because for 3 months they watched him sink their team. Now its too little too late for his owners. If you sold him low for 2 months ago and got a solid player, it would likely be safe to say you are at least competing.
This is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever read. If you “cut your losses” with Jimmy Rollins at any point other than opening day (you know, right after you paid $40 or a second round pick), you lost value. His level of play since his 5 for 40 start? .250/111/15/70/34. Pretty much standard Rollins. To say dumping him on opening day would even show a profit is assuming he doesn’t continue to play to his normal level, because if he does, he’s going to be a slam dunk for top 3 SS and a second round pick again next year. You’re better off playing craps than you are trying to pick the highs and the lows of a baseball player’s season.
I agree that this has been one of the weaker entries of this series, but overall, it hasn’t been so bad. At the very least it’s confirmed some ideas I’ve had. Some turned out bad, some good, but hey you can’t win em all amiright?
Also, the Longoria advice was good. He’s got the sparkling name and might actually be overrated from a fantasy perspective. The advice was not to sell him for anything, but to take “first round talent” in return if offered. If I could get a top 5 player for Longoria right now, I’d jump at that chance.
At no point in this season (or last, for that matter) has anyone in a competitive, standard redraft league been willing to give up a top 5 player for Longoria. In most leagues he was drafted, at the very highest, in the second round. I agree with you, I’m just saying almost anyone all year would’ve given him up for a top 5 player.
Definitely didn’t mean to come off as malicious. Buy low/sell high is not some strategy thought up by yahoo “experts” or something. Claiming that its not smart because everyone knows about it is preposterous. No, you wouldn’t be able to get a great offer for Millwood, but that’s because his value wasn’t actually that high. High average, low ERAs, lots of wins don’t equate to value. Value stems from what people are willing to pay for something. I may have oversimplified the process of determining trade targets, but I stand by my criticism. This column very frequently identifies people as trade targets after their value has already recovered from lower levels, making it difficult to acquire them at anything but full value. The inverse is true of many sell candidates.
Anyways, I very much appreciate the hard work that goes into the column and I read it every week. The column has really good advice sometimes but I just think it has potential to be much more.
I’m not sure I agree. I had dopes in my league offering me Millwood for Braun, back when Millwood’s ERA was 2.64 and I had an awful-looking staff full of 5.00-6.00+ ERA guys (Nolasco, Gaudin, Pavano, Danks) and appeared to be desperate for pitching.
But I really don’t think this guy trying to swindle me – I think he truly thought Millwood was really that valuable.
In other words, if it had been the other way around and I had owned Millwood, I might have been able to use his 2.64 ERA to get a very top-notch bat from this guy. And of course, as we all know, I’d be willing to give up the 2.64 ERA because Milwood’s true talent level is about 2 runs higher.
Again, maybe I play in a league of dopes, where this kind of strategy helps out a lot more. Overall, I find the column useful. It’s nothing groundbreaking, but it’s good confirmation.
I doubt the guy actually thought it….he’s not going to let on that he knows Millwood is worth less if he’s trying to sell him.
Or maybe you could look at these columns in another way – it could be smart to acquire Miguel Montero, if you had the extra roster space, and then before he cools off, quickly turn him around to a guy desperate for offense at the catcher spot.
Obtain Olive Perez ??
are you kidding me ??
the guy is a trainwreck
I don’t mean to disparage the work done in this column at all. I agree with Drew that it is useful, particularly if you are looking at it the right way. This is a difficult column to write because every league is different and even the smartest owners completely disagree on players. Its also difficult to write it weekly. That said, I think this could be much more than it is. Fangraphs is probably the best baseball analysis website of its kind and it has some of the best, most granular information available. Yet this column, for the most part, focuses on the same things as similar columns on Yahoo, ESPN, CBS– hot streaks, playing time, call-ups, matchups, etc. We should be focusing on players that are under- or over-valued because of trends that aren’t reflected in the surface stats.
We should be targetting pitchers that have been adding velocity or movement, generating more outside swings, more groundballs, etc. Or pitchers with abnormally high BABIPs and HR/FB. Aaron Harang would be a perfect example. After losing a tick off his fastball in 2008, he has added velocity every month this season and is now throwing as hard as ever. He is striking out a batter per inning since mid-June. The results haven’t quite been there yet due to a 347 BABIP (career avg 316) and a couple dud starts. His ERA (4.17) is well above his FIP (3.94). Given his improving performance and the distorting effect of a couple crappy starts on his season numbers, Harang should be able to outperform that FIP number over the rest of the season. He most certainly has lost some of his luster after a season and a half of mediocre performance and he should be available at a significant discount in many leagues. Other candidates would include Paul Maholm, Jorge De La Rosa, and Carl Pavano.
Similarly, we should be targetting hitters who are displaying improved plate discipline, contact ability, or power but haven’t yet generated the results because of lower BABIP or HR/FB. There are several candidates here. Carlos Quentin is hitting 232/327/449 on the season. His numbers are depressed by a 216 BABIP. His value is depressed by injury concerns and the unimpressive numbers (people don’t think about the 216 iso when they see just 8 HRs). Adrian Gonzalez is another great candidate. His numbers have come crashing down over the past couple months, and he’s now hitting 254/389/523 (which is still awesome, obviously). Many owners are looking at this as a natural correction largely because of his home park. But his 247 BABIP is miles away from his career 309 BABIP. With a 272 iso, every point gained in BABIP is worth a whole lot. Other candidates would be Ian Kinsler, A-Rod, and Fernando Martinez.
Obviously some of these guys are going to be very expensive players. But, depending on the league, many of these guys should be available at steep discounts to their expected production. Anyways, just a thought. Keep up the good work.
Great comments, Ben. Providing exactly what I would have been looking for from the column. Not to say that I don’t appreciate Brian’s column – he has highlighted a number of nuggets early in the wave.
One other aspect I have noticed on the sell high items I see from Brian is the sell high on pitchers/hitters based upon their FIP/BABIP full season stats and ZiPS forecasts, but not on more recent numbers and regressions – Matt Cain was a great example of a pitcher who was pushed as a sell candidate despite a FIP trending toward his ERA. I know we need larger data sets to generate the numbers, but it strikes me as important for writers to pay attention to changes within season (as Ben notes on Harang) as opposed to just validating their opinions through the ZIPS (which will be a trailing indicator for an number of players with changing fundamentals).
Isn’t Cain is a sell candidate because his strand rate is abnormally high, and the perception, to some, is that he has a Cy Young-caliber ERA, thus you could get a lot more for him now than you would if his strand rate regressed and his ERA shifted upward?
With this mindset, I dealt Cain in early June for a lot of important players, and while his strand rate has stayed really high, and his ERA has stayed really low, his FIP is still 3.83, and I don’t believe I made a bad choice in doing “dumping” him (not that I wouldn’t mind 80 innings of 3.83 ERA for the rest of the season, I just needed to fill certain offensive slots more than pitching spots).
Or am I missing something? I’m a bit new to stats, and especially new to fantasy baseball, so forgive me.
On May 22nd, after 51 innings pitched, Cain’s FIP was 4.85 with a .257 BABIP and 90% strand rate.
Now Cain has a 3.83 FIP with a .272 BABIP and an 87.4% strand rate after 124 IP, numbers that while very good, lead one to think that he still isn’t that great, and thus people perceive that he is expendable in favor of a good number of replacement pitchers.
The problem is that while Cain’s FIP still looks high, since the original article it has been much closer to his current ERA – if I weight by IP, then my guess is ~ 3.13. I also put BABIP at .282 (on par with historicals) and strand rate at 85.6% (still high).
My point to all of this was that too often we are provided the full season numbers – which, in this case would indicate that Cain is still dramatically overvalued, despite a more recent cut of numbers showing that the majority of Cain’s season has been spent producing at the caliber his bottom-line numbers indicate.
Just my take. I’m not sure if it’s available, but I would love to see within-season (monthly? pre/post all-star) FIP, BABIP, etc breakouts because I think a lot changes over the course of a season.
I can appreciate both points of view on Cain, but if I would definitely trade him if there were other owners in the league that valued him like a Cy Young candidate. He is a great pitcher, but I definitely think his true value is closer to his 3.83 FIP than it is to his ERA. Marc’s point is a great one though. Ironically, stat-heads tend to oversimplify sometimes… they look at a pitcher with a small sample size of innings and say FIP > ERA = overrated and FIP < ERA = underrated. Obviously this isn’t always the case. There are more things to consider when trying to project a pitcher’s future performance. For players with changing skillsets, FIP is a lagging indicator.
Plus FIP doesn’t factor for good or bad luck with HR/FB. As was pointed out in a post a few days ago, FIP would be much more useful if it adjusted for HR luck. (though the fact that it doesn’t might make it easier for you to sell high on someone with a low FIP but low HR/FB or buy low on someone with a high FIP but also a high HR/FB)
I have to agree with those that have already sounded the Ollie Perez “voice of reason.” Brian, the “groans” are justified. Even if Ollie can help you in K’s, he can single-handedly destroy your WHIP. Anyone that can have that much negative effect on a category is someone you should steer clear of. It’s not like he’s going to get many wins the way the Mets are playing either.
Brian- you seem to be a little misguided on Perez
Is that really likely? In his first 2 starts back, he’s pitched 11 innings, struck out 8 while walking 11 and allowing 2 homers. That’s a 7.11 FIP; he’s clearly the same crappy pitcher that he was at the start of the season.
Besides, the Mets are a sucky offensive team nowadays, and even if Perez somehow puts up a 4.00 ERA, there is no way he gets 7 wins.