Comments on: Week Nine Trade Possibilities

By: R M

R M — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:41:17 +0000

dude what are you talking about….Scherzer has the better ERA, and a 3.69 FIP to back it up, as well as a 9.2 K/9. Porcello has a 4.82 FIP and a 5 K/9, suggesting he is pitching over his head, and even at this level, Scherzer is more valuable because of the massive difference in strikeout rate. Jiminez has a 3.31 FIP and 7.5 K/9. Price has a 5.42 FIP. If it is a one year league you just did a great job at picking the 2 pitchers who are likely to be worst this year.

By: Willis

Willis — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 05:10:43 +0000

heck, i’m feeling bold. I’m uppin’ it and going with 32 HR, 28 SB, and .270.

By: Willis

Willis — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 05:08:49 +0000

Now that McLouth is going to the Braves he will have a little more protection in the lineup and I foresee him having a really big second half in Hotlanta. I doubt Nate was expecting this trade and he is gonna have a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. I am gonna go with a final season total in the vicinity of 30 HR, 22 SB, and an average around .265. Book it.

By: Willis

Willis — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 04:55:58 +0000

Forget what that other guy said; Porcello is the one you should not drop. Porcello has put up better numbers than all of them so far this season. Price is gonna be a stud too, so i wouldn’t let him go either. Scherzer has not been that good at all and I think he is extremely overrated; Floyd will likely outperform Scherzer for the rest of the season. Jimenez is a strong young talent but the fact that he pitches in Colorado always has to be a concern, although Floyd also pitches in a hitter friendly park. I would drop Scherzer; he won’t get many wins on such an offensively weak team andc doesn’t maintain a low enough ERA to be relevent. Price and Porcello are your definite keepers.

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 00:28:07 +0000

Hi Sean – thanks for reading and commenting.

It’s easy to take the over on the counting categories as McLouth is likely to exceed the playing time that ZiPS forecasts.

At the start of play on 6/3, RotoTimes had McLouth as the 68th-best fantasy hitter and 87th-best player overall.

Let’s see how he finishes in their rankings – if he moves up closer to his ADP of 59.

By: Josh

Josh — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:46:57 +0000

I disagree strongly with several of these.

First off, John Maine has terrible K and BB rates, even if you cherry pick his “good” starts. The only reason his FIP is somewhat respectable is because his unsustainably low HR/9. His GB% is at a career low 35%, and his HR/FB is half his career level, at 5%. These are some atrocious peripherals.

Next, your argument against McLouth is based on his SLG and his ZiPS projections. Well, of course his SLG will be down when his BA and BABIP are down. His ISO is in line with the past 2 years, down 10% from last year. And his ZiPS projection assume he only gets 3/4 PT, which is not true if he stays healthy. 22/20 is very good over 480 ABs.

By: R M

R M — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:21:56 +0000

ZiPS also projects him to finish at 480 at bats, and doesn’t seem to take into account his BABIP thus far. Formulized projections have their limitations, and I don’t think players shouldn’t be written off or overvalued because of one. His HR/FB% is a little on the high side next to his career numbers, but he is on track for 32 homeruns. Even with regression in the HR/FB% dept, he can still easily reach last year’s total. Plus, he is right on pace with his stolen bases. I guess we can just sit back and see who is right….and I will definitely let you know if I am : )

By: BobbyRoberto

BobbyRoberto — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 23:54:45 +0000

I picked up Davis for his next two starts (@SD, then vs SF), then plan to give him the heave-ho. Well, now that I look at it, his starts after that are @KC and @SEA, so he could possibly be worth having for another 4 starts. I should note that this league uses Quality Starts instead of Wins, so his 2-6 record isn’t a factor. I’ll just cross my fingers every time he pitches and see how it all works out.

By: Sean

Sean — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 21:31:31 +0000

His HR/FB% is up, but not crazily so for a 28 year old, and warmer weather is ahead.

ZIPS likes him finishing around 20-20, 80 R/RBI, and a .250 AVG. I’d take the over on all five of these. We’ll see who’s right.

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 20:33:01 +0000

Hi R M – thanks for reading and commenting.

I don’t think McLouth is going to maintain his current HR output and neither does ZiPS.