Week Seven Trade Possibilities
Hopefully you were able to pick up Brett Cecil and J.J. Hardy last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.
Acquire
Ramon Hernandez – Throughout his career, Hernandez has delivered solid HR totals for a catcher. In his last three seasons, he averaged nearly 16 HR per season. So far this year, Hernandez has only one homer. The Great American Ball Park is the sixth-best park for HR this year, according to the single-season park factors at ESPN. Hernandez is not hitting as many fly balls as he has recently, but the falloff has not been dramatic (only 1.5% below last year) and he should deliver more power going forward.
Matt Harrison – After giving up 15 ER in his first 14.2 IP, Harrison has allowed just six ER in his last 30 innings. It would be nice if he struck out a few more batters, but his BABIP is .301, he gets groundballs (1.40 GB/FB) and he has a 0.81 HR/9. The big lefty averages nearly 91 with his fastball, throws four pitches and his FIP is almost identical to his ERA.
Billy Butler – In his first 18 games of the season, Butler had a .193 AVG with zero HR and three RBIs. Since then he has a .348-3-15-15-0 fantasy line, also in 18 games. Butler arrived in the majors with a reputation of being a good hitter with limited defensive value. He has found a home at first base and the bat may be finally coming around. Butler probably won’t hit enough HR to be a starting first baseman but should have a good average and double-digit HRs.
Brian Tallet – A reliever at the beginning of the year, Tallet moved into the rotation on April 24th and has pitched very well as a starter in four of his five outings. The lone bad start was a meltdown, in which he allowed 10 ER in four innings, and that is keeping his overall numbers high. Tallet is owned in less than two percent of ESPN leagues and is a nice pickup for the back of your rotation.
Matt Holliday – Overrated at the beginning of the year with an ADP of 12, Holliday compounded things by getting off to a terrible start. But the average is starting to pick up and he has hit three HR in May after posting zero in April. Clearly, he is not going to be the fantasy stud that he was in Colorado, but ZiPS projects him to hit .284 with 19 HR and 77 RBIs the rest of the season.
Trade
Russell Branyan – A near lock to post career highs in every single fantasy category, Branyan is unlikely to keep up his current rate of production. No one ever doubted his power but his .368 BABIP and .333 ISO are unsustainable over a full season. A platoon or bench player throughout his career, Branyan has done it for six-plus weeks now as a full-time player and there should be a market for his bat, especially from an owner light on HR.
Jered Weaver – In his last six games, Weaver has five Quality Starts. But he’s been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Overall, he has a .228 BABIP and an 84.1 percent strand rate. Weaver has had an ERA within 0.50 of his FIP the past two seasons but this year his FIP is 4.10 compared to a 2.59 ERA.
Pedro Feliz – He has never been a good hitter for average because his BABIP has never topped .300 in any season in which he played more than 10 games. This year it sits at .343 which has led to a .308 AVG. Feliz used to be a consistent power source. He hit between 20-22 HR in four straight seasons but saw his power output drop to 14 last year. His FB% is in decline and he will need to reverse that trend (and hope for a regression in his HR/FB rate) just to match 2008’s output.
Wandy Rodriguez – One of the top fantasy pitchers so far in 2009, Rodriguez has flown somewhat under the radar due to the fantastic starts by Zack Greinke and Johan Santana. Most of Rodriguez’ numbers do not scream out regression but they are all better than career norms, which has a nice overall effect. The one exception is that he has not allowed a single HR this season in 52 IP, despite playing half his games in Minute Maid Park, which is the third-best park for HR this year.
Fred Lewis – Last year Lewis proved he could handle a full-time role and he opened the year in the coveted third-spot in the Giants’ lineup. Since then he has hit for a solid average but not produced much in other categories. Lewis has also bounced around in the lineup, batting every slot in the order except cleanup. That makes it hard to predict his R, RBI and SB going forward. ZiPS does not see him improving on last year’s numbers and even sees him falling off in AVG. Trade him now while his .294 AVG still looks good.
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I don’t know about trading away Wandy. He could very well finish with an era around 3.30 with 175 k’s and 14-15 wins. Thats pretty good. Sure his ERA is bound to go up, but he does K and has good control
What would you move Wandy for?
ZIPS (ROS) projects sub 4 FIP with 2.3 K/BB.
Given that Wandy went very late in drafts, I’m not sure what kind of an SP you’d get back for him.
Would you take Baker or Slowey straight up?
Baker, yes. Slowey not so much.
Yes, Slowey is bound to have good starts during the season when bats are off for a day simply because he doesn’t get himself into trouble by walking. His 0.5BB/9IP is incredible. But, if you’re trading a guy like Wandy, you want the K and Baker can give you that. Also, Baker has shown signs that he is regaining form. His past two starts, he has pitched great until exactly the 7th inning. That leads me to belive he is still having trouble getting deep into games because of his stamina, possibly. He took a no-hitter against Seattle into the 7th and took a shutout into the 7th against Verlander and the Tifer only to allow 6ER with two outs in the 7.
I believe Fred Lewis also has turf toe. He should be able to play through it, but it’s especially painful when pivoting or executing quick-burst movements, like getting a jump on a fly ball, stealing a base or diving back to the bag, exploding and pivoting during the swing . . . in other words, pretty much everything baseball requires.
Not sure about the Tallet reccomendation either. He’s just 35 innings shy of his career high in any professional season.
I see that he’s had 5 out of 6 good starts. But a .227 BABIP against and a 1.48 K/BB, I dont think he makes it through June in the rotation.
Hi Mike – thanks for reading and commenting!
Tallet may be closing in on his MLB career high for innings but his professional high is 160 IP. I might be a tad concerned if he was a young guy, but he’s 31 years old.
He had a good outing yesterday in Boston – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
I don’t see trading Wandy either. I don’t think he would bring enough in return. In fact, I almost think he is still a buy low guy. Point out to a Wandy-owning manager that he hasn’t given up a HR and that his ERA will surely rise, then hope to get him for 12th to 15th round value. Try and convince the guy that he is selling high.
Have to like a guy that has shown steady and consistent improvement in his K/9, BB/9, O-Swing%, and F-Strike% over the last 5 years. His ERA won’t stay at 1.90, but he could outperform his xFIP of 3.78.
Only real Wandy concern to me is that he tends to get dinged up.
HI MMBig – thanks for reading and commenting!
It is up in the air what Wandy’s trade value is. My guess is that it’s higher than 12th-15th round equivalent, though. I agree if you can get him for that price, it would be a good move. RotoTimes has him as the eighth-best pitcher and 32nd best overall fantasy player so far in a 12-team mixed league.
What should I ask for Weaver, i’m not sure of his price, any recommendations?
I flipped Weaver and J.J. Putz for Ricky Nolasco in a keeper league that values holds. Nolasco’s on his way up, and I was able to cheaply replace Putz with Kevin Gregg (although Gregg will be gone when Frank Francisco comes off the DL). Nolasco and change (if you want it) is a decent asking price, but you might have to give up a little more than Weaver.
I’m gonna have to disagree on the acquire Billy Butler. I’m a guy who really likes Butler, and believe he will be a very good fantasy player in the near future, but not this year. His GB being over 50 percent just isn’t gonna cut it for a guy with no speed, and a sub 30 FB rate is bothersome too, granted the LD rate isn’t too shabby.
I’m not sure Brian is asserting that any of these guys are team-changers (and likely this isn’t what some of these posts contend), but rather he looks to examine trends and evaluate appropriately using past performance for players that can contribute to teams in various leagues in the near future. Anyone can argue that you should acquire a Reyes or other star; it’s nice to read about players likely available on the wire or otherwise wasting away on an inactive owners bench.
Wandy’s been amazing this season, and really started to break though last year too, he was just really unlucky in 08. He has amazing stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finishing in the top-5 for NL CY Young voting.
That said, I really want to trade Weaver and Millwood. Who should I ask for in return? I lead the league in K’s, WHIP, ERA, but I’m in the middle for wins and I’m near the bottom for saves.
JON. LESTER.
This is the guy who’ll be sick the rest of the way. Saves…who knows.
Holliday actually had a homer on April 30, so he had 4 at the time of the article, 1 in April.
He hit another last night.
Big Oil – excellent comment. This site does a great job of touching on players at all levels. It’s very helpful in targeting skilled players who have been unlucky in early season small samples.
Brian – Thanks for the article. I look forward to this piece every week and it always spurs me to dig in to the players you mention.
I was offered Wandy for Nolasco. Should I do it? Appreciate the article.
I would pull the trigger on Wandy for Nolasco.
Nolasco has been the unluckiest SP in baseball this year. His FIP is 3.45 below his ERA. BABIP against of .387 & LOB % of 52.7% are absurd. He has a very strong K/BB of 2.92. He plays in a more favorable home park than Wandy and is likely to receive more run support going forward.
BTW, I own both of them, so I am tracking all their numbers constantly.