Comments on: Week Three Trade Possibilities

By: ball four

ball four — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 01:20:51 +0000

“If someone thinks the hot start or the Mariners defense is going to transform Washburn into a top 30-40 pitcher and is willing to pay equivalent value, that is a trade I would make.” . . . It’s easy to give good advice when you play with the context like that. I’ve played in a lot of leagues with various levels of opposition; I’m positive no one is putting that sort of price tag on Washburn (what’s next, you’ll tell us to move Aaron Hill for Chase Utley? Good work if you can get it).

Here’s my question to you – where *should* Washburn rank today, on a rest-of-season rank sheet? That’s the more important issue to get on top of, methinks.

By: Josh

Josh — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 19:57:48 +0000

Even if you adjust Washburn’s FIP to his career average HR/FB rate and then adjust the new FIP for his depressed BABIP, Washburn is still looking good. Each 18.56 difference in BABIP increases ERA by 1.31% (see: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-dips1).

So Washburn SHOULD have a FIP of 3.59, which is still really good. So yeah, make sure you get more for him than what Washburn at 3.59 ERA would be worth.

By: bucco

bucco — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 18:01:50 +0000

this is not so much a buy/sell question as a believe it/doubt it one. i already have utley but picked up aaron hill a couple weeks ago anyway. i dont want to hold two 2B all year, so when would be the best time to trade one or the other, and can i trust hill enough to deal utley? i generally feel utley is a top 8 talent, and i usuallly dont like to trade those types of players, but i would clearly get back much more for him than hill.

By: Jason

Jason — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:57:34 +0000

Haha, that’s bad, but it’s not the worst deal ever or even the worst trade I’ve seen that involves Bonifacio.

About two weeks ago the following trade went down in our league:
Bonifacio+Valverde+Verlander
for
Hudson+Putz+…wait for it…Jo-…your jaw should be dropping…han. As in Santana. As in, 12 hours after the trade was made, Johan Santana rang up 13Ks in seven innings and no one was that impressed because we’ve seen it from him so many times before.

(Coda: two days later the same owner tried to dump Matt Holliday on me. Because he’s a close friend I declined and advised him to call the suicide hotline. He’s in counseling now and doing much better.)

Except for the tasteless suicide humor all of the above is true, hand to God.

By: Scott G

Scott G — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:22:37 +0000

I think the RBI projection for Pena is low considering the lineup. I was able to move Bonofacio and Gallaraga for Meche and Span. I think I got the better end on both.

By: Sean

Sean — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:03:07 +0000

Don’t you think listing Young as a “dump” is a little reactionary? His lone away start came at the hitters’ paradise of paradises, Citizen’s Bank. Being a fly ball pitcher in such a venue would reasonably subject him to poor starts like that. With his velocity back up to normal levels and given a clean bill of health, it seems that after his last start, Young may be an “acquire” candidate, not vice versa.

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 03:17:51 +0000

That seems like a reasonable trade offer. A lot depends on the makeup of your team, especially what your 2B options are with Cano gone.

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 02:13:29 +0000

Josh,

You can get first and second half BABIP splits at baseball-reference. Here’s the link for Berkman in 2008

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=berkmla01&year=2008&t=b

While you’re there, check out his 2007 splits. He had a so-so first half and a real good second half.

Thanks for reading and the kind words.

By: Josh Wexler

Josh Wexler — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 00:55:26 +0000

Brian,

Firstly, this column is one of the ten most useful things on the interweb as far as I’m concerned. Great freakin job.

Secondly, I’m currently shopping Berkman for the following reasons: A)I think the biceps tendonitis is a great concern. He’s had a cortisone shot, but he said it was still bothering him afterwards. B)I don’t think a whole post allstar break of .821OPS for Berkman can be dismissed as “streakiness.” It strikes me as more likely an indication of decline. I’d change my mind if there are underlying indicators such as still-elite peripherals but a very low BABIP. I don’t know how to access those splits.

By: Brandon

Brandon — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 22:03:21 +0000

Not really a buy low, but Doumit’s my catcher and since he went on the DL, I picked up Ianetta from FA. His owner had released him for John Baker because he was hitting under .100.