Comments on: Where did the Bossman’s Power go?

By: Neil

Neil — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 00:51:48 +0000

.265 is not very high. I just selected it because it’s what I consider the danger mark when selecting a guy for fantasy…anything under .265 and they are really hurting the team AVG.

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 23:33:49 +0000

Nice post Neil. One thing I would say, though, is that Loney’s career average is still pretty good and his K rate is still very low overall. The strongest correlation I’ve found when working on these fundamental components is a negative one between K% and batting average.

Then again, .265 is not very high. Bossman could strikeout around 28% of the time and still reach that benchmark, IMHO.

That’s not what we expected of him, though, is it?

By: Neil

Neil — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:24:36 +0000

Great piece. He’s a frustrating fantasy player not only because of the power swings, but because of the AVG. Anyone who steals 40+ bases is valuable, even if they hit less than 10 HR, but the AVG has to be .265 or better. I’m curious to see where he will be drafted next season. As someone who had him for 6 weeks (.180, no power, 5 RBI) and then dealt him for Grandy, I won’t be touching him unless he falls to round 8 or lower.

How about a complimentary article titled “Where Did the Mayor’s Power Go?” With the “Mayor” being James Loney. Loney’s SLG year over year:

.559
.538
.434
.385

Meanwhile, his LD% has improved:

12%
21.5%
22.1%
22.5%

As well as his K% and contact rates:

9.8% (84% contact)
14% (87%)
14.3% (87%)
11.4% (89%)

In 2009, he has an 11% K%, 22.5% LD% and 89% contact rate, yet is only hitting .273 – less than Mark Reynolds and Ryan Howard. Goes to show you that there’s a lot more to AVG than contact rates, line drive rates and K%.

By: The Fonz

The Fonz — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 01:58:10 +0000

He showed some power in the minors, but not necessarily HR power. Maybe this is a guy who’s had success with a swing, but hasn’t adjusted as major league pitching figured him out. I’m willing to bet there’s been developed some defensive shifts for him as well. Plus, perhaps he had a bit of luck in that 2007 HR total. Bottom line, as history has shown, post-season success is a poor indicator of future success (especially for hitters), as a 16-game sample (in Upton’s case) contains insufficient data.