Will J.J. Putz Regain Elite Closer Status?
In 2006 and 2007 J.J. Putz was one of the top closers in baseball. In those two years he notched 76 saves and struck out 186 batters in 150 innings while posting WHIPs under 1.000 each season. But injuries dogged him in 2008 as he suffered through a strained oblique and a hyperextended right elbow.
The velocity was there for Putz last year, but his control abandoned him. He averaged 95 mph with his fastball, which was a tick higher than it was in 2007, but his BB/9 jumped from 1.63 to 5.44 in 2008. The final month of the season offered hope for Putz, as he posted 13 strikeouts and two walks in eight innings.
Putz gave up a few more line drives last year (20.2 percent versus 17.0 percent in ’07) but his other numbers were right in line with what he did in his outstanding 2007 season. His arm is healthy, his velocity is there (PitchFX had him at 98.5 in his final game of the season) and there is no discernible difference in his skill set other than the walks.
Fantasy players should monitor his control over results in Spring Training. Assuming he shows no Steve Blass tendencies, Putz has a chance to be one of the most undervalued players on Draft Day next season. There are trade rumors surrounding him this off-season, but that has more to do with the value of a top-flight closer on a 101-loss team than any issues regarding his health. Regardless of which team he ends up with, Putz should be one of the top three-to-five closers taken.
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I’d say putting in the top 3 to 5 is extreme, especially considering you have K-Rod (although I would avoid him completely because of the mileage on his arm), Nathan, and Papelbon. There’s no way he’s better than any of them, especially with Seattle.
Thanks for reading and commenting, Jim!
Here are the lines for Nathan, K-Rod and Papelbon for 2008 and Putz for 2007, his last injury-free season. I’m going to leave out saves, because it will make K-Rod instantly recognizable. The other three had 39, 40 and 41 – basically interchangeable. I’m leaving off the names and I’d like you to rank them as to which are the best.
ERA WHIP SO
A 2.34 0.95 77
B 2.24 1.29 77
C 1.99 0.90 74
D 1.38 0.70 82
Watching someone pitch is not the same as studying the underlying stats, but seeing him pitch last year it would be difficult to conclude he was the same person he was in 2007. He looked terrible.
But one stat that does bear confirmation was his struggle pitching anywhere other than the ninth inning. Whatever the reason for some closers who just can’t get it done in the eighth, Putz is the poster child for that disorder.
Has anyone heard anything about Putz this Spring that might be any indication as to what his value is in a fantasy league that doesn’t use holds?