Will Success Spoil Dan Haren?
Some thought the A’s were selling high when they traded Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks following the 2007 season. He was coming off a season in which he set career bests in wins (15), ERA (3.07) and strikeouts (192). However, Haren had a FIP 63 points higher than his actual ERA and in the second half of 2007 he fell from a 2.30 ERA to a 4.15 mark. Additionally, many felt Haren was the beneficiary of both his home park and the A’s strong defense.
But Haren went out and pitched even better in 2008. He set career bests in wins (16), strikeouts (206) and WHIP (1.130) while his ERA (3.33) was the second-best mark of his career. Many now consider Haren one of the best starters in the game and he ranks in the top 10 in most lists of starting pitchers. His latest ADP is 55 according to Mock Draft Central.
Despite Chase Field being a good hitter’s park, Haren pitched just as good last year at home as on the road. He is young, durable and has a fine assortment of pitches. Last year Haren threw more cutters, giving batters another weapon to fear.
The projection systems agree with popular opinion, as they show Haren in the top 10 among starting pitchers in all four fantasy categories. Haren looks to be one of the safest pitchers around, as there are neither injury concerns nor any unprecedented inning totals warnings surrounding him. Also adding to his attractiveness as a fantasy player is the expected comfort from a new contract and additional familiarity with his surroundings in the National League.
If anything, fantasy owners may be undervaluing Haren relative to his starting pitcher peers in current mock drafts.
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In the last three years he has died down in the 2nd half. I don’t need that when I am trying to lock up a championship. Pass — this fact takes him out of the ace argument. I rather have Beckett, who can be taken where Haren is drafted, since this is an on again year for him.
Look at his graphs for the past three years. In each case, his BABIP has soared at the end of the year, while his K rate and BB rate have stayed fairly strong. His HR rates have surged in each case, but it hasn’t been due to any increase in his FB%, so it’s not likely that it’s due to any breaking down of his basic skillset.
This isn’t to say that there’s no chance that Haren’s performance will take a hit at the end of the 2009 season, but it’s important to recognize the effects of bad luck and bad fielding on his record.
The second half fades have really been disappointing but if Manny does stay out of the NL West, that division really becomes a pitcher’s dream. No Dunn, no Holliday, and no Manny makes that division much more palatable. A reduced Rockies lineup, a wretched Padres team, and an iffy Giants lineup will be welcome matchups.
Haren fading down the stretch has been played up a lot, which is nice because it keeps his value lower. Sorry to those in h2h leagues, but I want this guy’s overall production.
In 2007, he finished with three consecutive quality starts at the end of the season and last season he was solid in September and that CG shutout came at a really nice time for me, so I think some of it has been overplayed. I know that some of the numbers are disappointing, but there are also a lot of positive numbers that just suggest some bad luck. Look at Haren’s K-rate last season in the second half with 94 K’s in 90.1 innings with only 18 walks in the second half. That is still pretty elite. It’s hard to figure out why the other numbers are going up when he is flashing those kinds of numbers. A 5:1 K: BB ratio is pretty exceptional though and doesn’t suggest any loss of “stuff” in the second half.
Yeah I’m in mostly Roto leagues too and I would take those numbers any day. Plus, if you think he is going to fade you can always “sell high” on him. You might look bad (and your team might suffer) if he doesn’t end up fading though.
I’ve been big on Dan Haren for two years now and even though the price tag has “gone up”, he’s still worth the cost. He’s one of the most durable, consistent and dominant pitchers in baseball. I peg him as a perpetual top five SP.
He’s got disturbingly good control