Wither Chipper?
Since he got an everyday gig back in 1995, Chipper Jones has been an institution for the Atlanta Braves.
For a decade and a half, Larry Wayne Jones has scorched pitchers from both sides of the batter’s box. Chipper holds a career .404 wOBA, one point below the career marks of Hank Aaron , Duke Snider and Big Poison, Paul Waner.
Despite nagging aches and pains, Chipper has aged remarkably well. From 2006-2008, he compiled a .435 wOBA, remaining an on-base fiend capable of punishing pitches into the gaps and over the fence. In late March of 2009, the Braves came to terms with Jones on a three-year contract extension. The pact, covering the 2010-2012 seasons, will pay Chipper a total of $42M during his age 38-40 seasons.
On the heels of that extension, Jones turned in an offensive season quite mild by his lofty standards. He got off to a rousing start, but was a non-entity in August and September while battling groin, back and oblique injuries.
Overall, Chipper turned in a .354 wOBA, tied with his rookie campaign for his lowest full-season mark in the majors. Jones was patient as ever, drawing a walk in 17 percent of his PA and swinging at pitches out of the strike zone just 15.4 percent (25% MLB average).
His power, however, suffered:
Chipper crushed to the tune of .267 ISO in 2007 and a still-impressive .210 figure in 2008, but he dipped to a .166 ISO in 2009. That’s a bit above the .155 league average and .157 average for third basemen.
As you might have guessed from Chipper’s batting average dropping one hundred points from ‘08 to ‘09, his BABIP came down from its near-.390 mark in 2008:
Jones’s BABIP was .291 in 2009. Based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs, Chipper’s Expected BABIP was .330. Even assuming all hits were singles, that would take Chipper’s triple-slash line from .264/.388/.430 to .303/.427/.469. That comes out to a wOBA around .401.
Of course, one could play devil’s advocate here, too. Jones is going on 38 years old, and while he has managed to stay on the field, he’s just about always nursing some ailment.
Perhaps you feel that Chipper’s bat speed is waning. His run value against fastballs, nearly +2.5 runs/100 from 2006-2008, dipped to +0.16 in 2009. Because these run values are based on actual outcomes, Jones’s values are dinged somewhat from the aforementioned low BABIP. But there’s still decline there.
According to Hit Tracker Online, Chipper’s dingers didn’t have quite the same force as in years past. His average speed off the bat was down a bit, and the Standard Distance of his homers dropped a fair amount ( Standard Distance is the estimated distance a HR would travel after accounting for wind, temperature and altitude).
Chipper’s speed off the bat (SOB) and standard distance (SD), by year:
2007: 104.5 MPH SOB, 404.8 SD
2008: 104.1 MPH SOB, 407.4 SD
2009: 103 MPH SOB, 395.2 SD
It’s extremely difficult to project a player like Jones, given his health issues and his age. The numbers are a mixed bag. On one hand, Chipper appeared to be hit-unlucky in ‘09. But one the other hand, there are signs that he didn’t have the same punch as in years past.
For 2010, Sean Smith’s CHONE system pegs Jones for a .280/.377/.472 line. That comes to a wOBA near .373, and strikes me as a reasonable compromise between Jones’s actual .354 wOBA in 2009 and the .400-type mark that his XBABIP suggested.
Jones certainly comes with risk, but odds are he’s not done at the dish. Perhaps his days as an offensive force are coming to a close, but he still has enough lumber to remain a quality fantasy option at the hot corner.
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As a Braves fan who watched 130 games or so this season, I think I can explain Chipper’s season thus far.
He started off well, hitting about as well as he did last year and his luck factor was fine (not too bad luck, not too good).
Then he went into a stretch where every ball he hit was caught and he himself was quoted as saying something to the extent of “I’m feeling fine, hitting the ball fine, and everything’s going well. When I’m actually struggling, you’ll notice that my strikeouts go up, and I haven’t been striking out lately.”
And then his injuries just started to pile up and he DID start striking out and started to actually struggle. Towards the end he was quoted as saying that he’s so banged up that “drawing a walk is a victory for me right now. I’m doing what I can.”
So really, if he stats appear to be a mixed bag, that’s because his season was a mixed bag too. Last year when he got hurt, he sat. This year, with the Braves in contention the whole way, he played through all his injuries and they accumulated, resulting in the performance that we see now.
He is aging, David Justice was quoted in Moneyball after a routine flyball, “That used to be out,” and the players didn’t question him.
He had some tough luck, but he is not hitting the ball as hard or as far, he could have a steep decline pending injury.
Moneyball was written like ten years ago…what the hell are you talking about?
Yeah, I guess aging sluggers don’t age anymore – only 10 years ago. History never repeats itself in baseball huh.
His oblique injury sapped his power, and I agree with Temo that they played him more than his body could take. He’s a 125-to-130-game guy now. Once he heals over the winter and they start giving him regular days off, they’ll get the best out of him. I think it’s a good sign that he continued to take his walks all year.
I’m curious, because history tells us BB rates increase with age even when everything else is falling apart . . . but perhaps it just appears that BB rates increase with age when, in fact, the players who enjoy longer career are those with better BB rates.
There has to be a study on that topic published somewhere.
I am in a deep keeper league waiting on Pedro Alvarez to come up next year….Chipper would probably be his perfect compliment.