Zach Duke and Ian Snell: Buried Treasure
The Pirates defense was terrible in 2008.
Nate McLouth had no range in center. Jason Bay and Xavier Nady weren’t much better in the corners. Freddy Sanchez was terrible at second base. The list goes on.
Why do you, the astute fantasy baseball player, care about the Pirates defense? Because it contributed to poor pitching performances. And if the defense improves – which it should – you may be able to find some sleepers on the Pirates pitching staff.
There is reason to believe that the Pirates defense will be better in 09 than it was in 08. First of all, Bay and Nady have since departed. At some point in 09, it’s likely that McLouth will be moved to a corner, and Andrew McCutchen – who is reported to be an above-average defender – will replace him in center field. Furthermore, Andy LaRoche is entrenched at third base, where he should be at least average. While Sanchez remains at second and shortstop is a question mark, the Pirates defense should be much better than it was last year, even if they’re not leading the league in DER.
This has ramifications for all Pirates pitchers, but two in particular:
Ian Snell had the second-highest BABIP of any starting pitcher in baseball, at .358. Even allowing for the fact that Snell may be more hittable than your average pitcher, a .358 BABIP is ridiculously high, and will likely regress to the mean next year. Even though Snell had a 5.42 ERA this season, he coupled that with a 4.57 FIP, suggesting a fair amount of bad luck. With some regression to the mean – and an improved defense behind him – Snell should see a lot more balls in play become outs next year. Snell may not be an ace, but he could be a decent fantasy pitcher, especially in deeper leagues.
Along similar lines, Zach Duke posted a .327 BABIP this year – ninth highest of all pitchers. Duke is also rather hittable, but it’s no coincidence that the two of the Pirates starting pitchers were in the top-10 in BABIP: their defense really was that bad. Even if Duke regresses, he’s still nothing more than a waiver-wire pickup or a late pick in an NL-only league; even so, Duke is likely to be undervalued, and should be watched in deep leagues.
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Duke is absolutely worthless….I am in a 20 team league with 30 man rosters and he was on the WW most of last year. He’s unlikely to give you WHIP, ERA, or W and if your league has an innings limit he will simply eat up valuable innings that a guy with a bad ERA and better than 4 K/9 could be used for.
Snell is more intriguing….at least to me….but maybe that’s because I’m a sucker for pitchers who can strike out a lot of guys, regardless of how damaging their other stats are.
Who do you think is the real Snell though? the 06 or 07 version?
I agree that Duke isn’t particularly valuable, but I do think he will be better in 09 and may have some value in a league like yours. Remember, if his BABIP regresses, his ERA and his WHIP will improve.
As for Snell, I believe he had some elbow issues this year. I’m optimistic that if he’s healthy (and this is a big if), the true Snell is more towards the 07 version. This year, he still struck out a fair share of batters, but his walks were way up. If his lack of control has anything to do with his injury, a return to full health should clear a lot of that up.
Snell is a head case, couple that with a dead arm and bad D. Well… you get what you got last year.
The Arm should come around as it did toward the end of last year. If Snell can rely on the inside heat. He will be very close to a stud. If not expect more of the same.
Duke got used up 3 years ago, he pitched well over the suggested amount of innings. He finally started to round back into form, at the end of last year. Expect a breakout.
The “real” Snell may be somewhere between the 2007 and 2008 versions.
In 2007, he pitched about an ERA of 3.00 for about half a season, and about 4.50 for the remainder. In 2008, he pitched about 6.00 for about half a season, and about 4.50 for the remainder. In the two years, he had two half seaons of 4.50, one half season as 3.00, and one half season around 6.00–and the last two average 4.50. So count on him for a 4.50 ERA, and a lot of volatility (he’s a volatile guy).