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	<title>Comments on: Zeroing in On Ely</title>
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	<description>Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy</description>
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		<title>By: Dan Budreika</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-8048</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan Budreika</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Dec 2009 19:03:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-8048</guid>
		<description>Interesting observations.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting observations.</p>
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		<title>By: OxfordBoss</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-7948</link>
		<dc:creator>OxfordBoss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Dec 2009 01:00:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-7948</guid>
		<description>I went to college with Ely and saw him pitch about a dozen times from his freshman and junior seasons. He&#039;s definitely a max effort guy, and the note about deception is correct. I saw him anywhere between 86-93 MPH over the three years, but more importantly, many times Ely blew 87 MPH fastballs by hitters. It&#039;s the deception he creates. I think Ely&#039;s curveball is better than described in this post, perhaps it was a bad night for him, but he occasionally did throw a major league quality curveball, so it&#039;s there.

I didn&#039;t think Ely would be as durable as he has demonstrated, and thought his future was in the bullpen as a late innings guy. Ely is a VERY entertaining pitcher to watch. He&#039;s a fierce competitor and demonstrates it on the mound, but at the same time keeps his composure. Miami (Ohio) U has produced a few early round draft picks in recent years (Keith Weiser, Matt Long, Connor Graham), but Ely is the best. Clearly, he&#039;s not a top flight pitching prospect, though. His delivery might lead to injury down the road, his curve can be inconsistent, his velocity could be better, but for a salary dump trade, the Dodgers did alright.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I went to college with Ely and saw him pitch about a dozen times from his freshman and junior seasons. He&#8217;s definitely a max effort guy, and the note about deception is correct. I saw him anywhere between 86-93 MPH over the three years, but more importantly, many times Ely blew 87 MPH fastballs by hitters. It&#8217;s the deception he creates. I think Ely&#8217;s curveball is better than described in this post, perhaps it was a bad night for him, but he occasionally did throw a major league quality curveball, so it&#8217;s there.</p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t think Ely would be as durable as he has demonstrated, and thought his future was in the bullpen as a late innings guy. Ely is a VERY entertaining pitcher to watch. He&#8217;s a fierce competitor and demonstrates it on the mound, but at the same time keeps his composure. Miami (Ohio) U has produced a few early round draft picks in recent years (Keith Weiser, Matt Long, Connor Graham), but Ely is the best. Clearly, he&#8217;s not a top flight pitching prospect, though. His delivery might lead to injury down the road, his curve can be inconsistent, his velocity could be better, but for a salary dump trade, the Dodgers did alright.</p>
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		<title>By: andres</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-7848</link>
		<dc:creator>andres</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Dec 2009 17:16:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-7848</guid>
		<description>No, they&#039;re really not that interesting.  He has the ability to be bullpen fodder, but walks too many guys.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, they&#8217;re really not that interesting.  He has the ability to be bullpen fodder, but walks too many guys.</p>
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		<title>By: Dan Budreika</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-7831</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan Budreika</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Dec 2009 22:45:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-7831</guid>
		<description>Interesting stuff, circlechange11. Zavada is indeed a two pitch guy but his left-handedness does certainly help him and as you noted he is a fly ball pitcher.

A third pitch would be huge for John Ely I absolutely agree with you that running through a big league line up with two pitches would be a huge challenge and after time hitters could catch on more easily. But as I said in the article...Dodger stadium is only going to help him. 

I&#039;ve read scouting reports that say Ely has flashed a good curve ball at times. But it&#039;s an inconsistent pitch. At least we know there is some ability there to drop a curveball...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting stuff, circlechange11. Zavada is indeed a two pitch guy but his left-handedness does certainly help him and as you noted he is a fly ball pitcher.</p>
<p>A third pitch would be huge for John Ely I absolutely agree with you that running through a big league line up with two pitches would be a huge challenge and after time hitters could catch on more easily. But as I said in the article&#8230;Dodger stadium is only going to help him. </p>
<p>I&#8217;ve read scouting reports that say Ely has flashed a good curve ball at times. But it&#8217;s an inconsistent pitch. At least we know there is some ability there to drop a curveball&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Dan Budreika</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-7830</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan Budreika</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Dec 2009 22:39:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-7830</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t have any additional info on Link. Keith&#039;s comments are interesting.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t have any additional info on Link. Keith&#8217;s comments are interesting.</p>
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		<title>By: Dan Budreika</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-7829</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan Budreika</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Dec 2009 22:38:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-7829</guid>
		<description>I wouldn&#039;t quite label an average fastball with life, a plus-plus change up, and plus command as &quot;common&quot; in the minor leagues.

Perhaps Foulke did throw harder during his White Sox years but dating back to 2002 his average fastball was 87.6 mph. And while his velo tapered off towards the end of his career he was still throwing 87-89 mph during his banner years in Oakland and Boston.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wouldn&#8217;t quite label an average fastball with life, a plus-plus change up, and plus command as &#8220;common&#8221; in the minor leagues.</p>
<p>Perhaps Foulke did throw harder during his White Sox years but dating back to 2002 his average fastball was 87.6 mph. And while his velo tapered off towards the end of his career he was still throwing 87-89 mph during his banner years in Oakland and Boston.</p>
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		<title>By: circlechange11</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-7828</link>
		<dc:creator>circlechange11</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Dec 2009 22:26:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-7828</guid>
		<description>When I read this article, as a pitching coach with a fondness for the change-up, I immediately thought of another dominant MiLB pitcher that made his debut this year as basically a FB-CH pitcher ... our local guy, Clay Zavada.

Here&#039;s Zavada&#039;s MiLB domination stats ...

Note: In 07 he was out of baseball, fulfilling a promise made to his recently deceased father, to graduate from college (His personal story is a tear-jerker, if oneis interested in reading about it).

&#039;08 (A) -- 35.1 IP - 6H (Yes, 6 hits) - 1 HR - 5 BB - 54 K - 0.31 WHIP
&#039;09 (AA) -- 17.1 IP - 10 H - 2 HR - 7 BB - 18 K - 0.98 WHIP

I was a little frustrated with Baseball Prospectus&#039;s comments which (to me) almost seemed to write him off as a bad joke including &quot;video game numbers&quot; and a &quot;bugs bunny change-up&quot;, but then insinuating he would not be any good in MLB.

&#039;09 (MLB) -- 51 IP - 45 H - 5 HR - 24 BB - 54 K - 1.35 WHIP

As a &quot;2-pitch guy&quot;, he was able to keep a decently high K/9 rate, but his WHIP jumped up quite a bit, as did his HR/IP rate, primarily due to being a &quot;Fly Ball &amp; K pitcher&quot;. Ely should do perhaps a little better with the high GB%.

I know Zavada was mostly effective versus RHBs as a LHP, primarily because the CH is more effective against opposite handed batters. I know he introduced a CV as a 3rd pitch with marginal success, but is also working on a cutter to use against LHBs as to feature somethng that runs &quot;into the hands of RHBs&quot;.

So, Ely could be effective as a RP, but he does likely ned to develop a pitch that moves &quot;away from the sweet spot&quot;, such as a cutter that runs into the hands of LHBs, and get his FB to run into RHBs.

I don;t see too many guys that are able to run through a lineup 3 times with just using 2 pitches.

If memory serves me, Eric Gagne was a very successful 2-pitch minor league starter, with 2 pitches that were &quot;very highly rated&quot;.

At the MLB level I think you need a 3rd pitch, specifically something that moves horizontally, if not more than to &quot;show something&quot;. Ely&#039;s K/9 is pretty good, but his MiLB WHIP is 1.29, and that likely goes up in MLB, which could be problematic.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When I read this article, as a pitching coach with a fondness for the change-up, I immediately thought of another dominant MiLB pitcher that made his debut this year as basically a FB-CH pitcher &#8230; our local guy, Clay Zavada.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s Zavada&#8217;s MiLB domination stats &#8230;</p>
<p>Note: In 07 he was out of baseball, fulfilling a promise made to his recently deceased father, to graduate from college (His personal story is a tear-jerker, if oneis interested in reading about it).</p>
<p>&#8217;08 (A) &#8212; 35.1 IP &#8211; 6H (Yes, 6 hits) &#8211; 1 HR &#8211; 5 BB &#8211; 54 K &#8211; 0.31 WHIP<br />
&#8217;09 (AA) &#8212; 17.1 IP &#8211; 10 H &#8211; 2 HR &#8211; 7 BB &#8211; 18 K &#8211; 0.98 WHIP</p>
<p>I was a little frustrated with Baseball Prospectus&#8217;s comments which (to me) almost seemed to write him off as a bad joke including &#8220;video game numbers&#8221; and a &#8220;bugs bunny change-up&#8221;, but then insinuating he would not be any good in MLB.</p>
<p>&#8217;09 (MLB) &#8212; 51 IP &#8211; 45 H &#8211; 5 HR &#8211; 24 BB &#8211; 54 K &#8211; 1.35 WHIP</p>
<p>As a &#8220;2-pitch guy&#8221;, he was able to keep a decently high K/9 rate, but his WHIP jumped up quite a bit, as did his HR/IP rate, primarily due to being a &#8220;Fly Ball &amp; K pitcher&#8221;. Ely should do perhaps a little better with the high GB%.</p>
<p>I know Zavada was mostly effective versus RHBs as a LHP, primarily because the CH is more effective against opposite handed batters. I know he introduced a CV as a 3rd pitch with marginal success, but is also working on a cutter to use against LHBs as to feature somethng that runs &#8220;into the hands of RHBs&#8221;.</p>
<p>So, Ely could be effective as a RP, but he does likely ned to develop a pitch that moves &#8220;away from the sweet spot&#8221;, such as a cutter that runs into the hands of LHBs, and get his FB to run into RHBs.</p>
<p>I don;t see too many guys that are able to run through a lineup 3 times with just using 2 pitches.</p>
<p>If memory serves me, Eric Gagne was a very successful 2-pitch minor league starter, with 2 pitches that were &#8220;very highly rated&#8221;.</p>
<p>At the MLB level I think you need a 3rd pitch, specifically something that moves horizontally, if not more than to &#8220;show something&#8221;. Ely&#8217;s K/9 is pretty good, but his MiLB WHIP is 1.29, and that likely goes up in MLB, which could be problematic.</p>
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		<title>By: hk</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-7825</link>
		<dc:creator>hk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Dec 2009 21:13:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-7825</guid>
		<description>Any thoughts on the other pitcher, Jon Link, that went to the Dodgers?  I haven&#039;t found much written about Link since Keith Law wrote the following about him in March:

• White Sox right-hander Jon Link, acquired from San Diego in 2007 for utility man Rob Mackowiak (by the way, the idea of giving up anything of value for Mackowiak confuses me profoundly), showed a 91-92 mph fastball with a plus slider that had a hard break I can only describe as &quot;fast.&quot; If nothing else, Link can miss bats in the big leagues with that pitch.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Any thoughts on the other pitcher, Jon Link, that went to the Dodgers?  I haven&#8217;t found much written about Link since Keith Law wrote the following about him in March:</p>
<p>• White Sox right-hander Jon Link, acquired from San Diego in 2007 for utility man Rob Mackowiak (by the way, the idea of giving up anything of value for Mackowiak confuses me profoundly), showed a 91-92 mph fastball with a plus slider that had a hard break I can only describe as &#8220;fast.&#8221; If nothing else, Link can miss bats in the big leagues with that pitch.</p>
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		<title>By: sigh</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zeroing-in-on-ely/#comment-7824</link>
		<dc:creator>sigh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Dec 2009 20:39:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=6005#comment-7824</guid>
		<description>yeah...no. ely is what every other middling AA prospect is. common. and foulke in his prime threw 91-93.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>yeah&#8230;no. ely is what every other middling AA prospect is. common. and foulke in his prime threw 91-93.</p>
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