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Waiver Wire: September 2nd

Some players to keep your eye on during the last month of the season.

Freddy Sanchez | 2B | 17% Owned
Seeing that he was a fantasy darling only a few years ago, I’m surprised Sanchez isn’t owned more. He had a big August, mostly due to a huge BABIP. However, his line drive rate was impressive the past couple of months, so the days of Sanchez hitting over .300 may have returned. He still won’t steal any bases or provide you with much power, but he is a low-risk option late in the year. Pick him up if he need help in the “runs” category, or don’t want to risk losing points in the batting average column.

Felix Pie | OF | 4% Owned
With playing time has come return for the Orioles, as Pie is showing some of the promise that made him a highly thought of prospect in the Cubs organization. Given a full year of starting, Pie may be able to produce a .300/15/15 season, good enough for a backup outfielder in most leagues. He’s done a great job lowering his strikeout rate, but his walk rate has suffered. While not a great option in OBP leagues, he’s worth your time in standard leagues.

Chris Narveson | SP | 2% Owned
Narveson has done a great job of not issuing free passes recently, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. He’s nothing special, but he’ll give you a chance to rack up a couple wins during the last month on the season. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, you’re taking a risk, but he’s worth it.

Wade LeBlanc | SP | 11% Owned
The pitcher from Petco had a fantastic August, upping his whiff rate to over 10% and striking out close to a batter every inning. His ground ball rate stayed the same, so I’m loving LeBlanc right now. He doesn’t really have the arsenal for that high of a strikeout rate, but hovering around the 7.5 mark per nine isn’t out of the question.

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Morrow’s Keeper Conundrum

In an effort to limit his workload this season, the Blue Jays plan on shutting starter Brandon Morrow down after Friday’s outing against the Yankees. Morrow has established himself as a very good keeper candidate with his strong performances these last couple of months, but is he worth holding on to if he’s going to miss so much time? Here are some things to consider when it comes to keeping Morrow after this season.

1. September Shutdown
I briefly mentioned this above, but it’s a big deal. When a player is scheduled to ride the pine for the last month of the season, it can really complicate things for some owners. For owners who have teams who aren’t in contention, it’s no big deal, but competing owners? That’s a whole other story. For a team trying to win a league title, having all hands of deck is important and cannot be overstated. Some races get really close this time of year, and missing out on five starts could be the difference between first and second place.

2. Losing Eligibility
Thanks to the Mariners jerking him around for so long, Morrow had SP and RP eligibility this year. The Blue Jays have been kind enough to take away the valuable opportunity to slide Morrow into a relief role on your roster. While this isn’t a big deal in daily leagues, weekly owners willing to punt saves and rack up innings will have to make harder decisions next year. While it seems you can always find a starter who’s relief eligible, it’s rare to find one with Morrow’s skills.

3. Innings in 2011
The Blue Jays have said that they try to keep starters from increasing their workload by more than twenty innings. When all is said and done, Morrow will have pitched about 150 innings this year, meaning he’ll probably be around the 175-185 mark next year. Since he turns 26 next July, the Blue Jays may be willing to let him pitch freely next season, but I wouldn’t count on it.

In Conclusion…
Overall, Brandon Morrow and his owners should be asking for some relief appearances during September, but the Blue Jays aren’t going to oblige. A part of me hopes the Blue Jays decide to place him on the DL with a phantom injury, but with roster expansion they won’t be forced to. It’s hard to make a judgement one way or the other without knowing every owner’s situation, and I haven’t even made up my mind yet in one of my leagues. Weigh the facts, and make a decision. That’s all anyone can ever ask for.

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Sleeper Keepers

Now is the time of year to worry about who you plan on keeping next season. Since most league’s trading deadline has passed, you’re going to need to head over to the waiver wire to find available young pieces. Here are three guys who you should consider picking up and keeping in deeper or league-specific leagues.

Roger Bernadina | OF | Nationals
The Nationals called up Bernadina when their other right field options (notably Justin Maxwell) failed early on. In a little over 350 trips to the plate this year, he’s posted a triple slash of .271/.327/.433 with a .338 wOBA. It’s not a surprise that he’s stolen 13 bases, but his double digit home runs are a shock, seeing that he never hit for power in any of his minor league stints. Bernadina turned 26 in July, so the power may finally be developing. He’s never going to be a superstar, but a 15/25 season is a reasonable expectation if he gets steady playing time next year.

Gregor Blanco | OF | Royals
Blanco came over to Kansas City thanks to the Ankiel/Farnsworth deal, and has gotten steady playing time ever since. The lefty rarely hits fly balls, which allows him to maintain a high BABIP without a super LD%. He knows how to draw a walk, but a lack of power makes him only a league average hitter. He’s stolen 10 bases in under 200 plate appearances, and has only been caught once as a Royal. If Ned Yost gives him the same amount of playing time for a full season, Blanco could steal 25 bases without hurting your batting average, with the distinct possibility of swiping more than 30 bags.

John Lannan | SP | Nationals
While his overall numbers aren’t fantastic, Lannan has put up impressive numbers since being recalled in August. Lannan regained his control, while finding a way to raise his Whiff%, too. He’s maintained an impressive ground ball percentage through all of this, and I’m loving what he’s done in August. Be a bit more cautious with Lannan, but I think he’s figured something out on the mound, and could be a solid contributor next year.

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Working Blue

Some thoughts on a couple of Dodgers to help wrap up the day. Please note that I will not actually be working blue during this article, because I like this gig and would prefer not to lose it.

Dodgers Closers

It’s been a wild ride, but it appears that Jonathan Broxton is back in the closers role. Joe Torre removed Broxton from the ninth inning almost two weeks ago, and after three dominant innings, Torre’s confidence in him was restored. He gave up two runs on Sunday, but he’s still a dominant pitcher on a .500 team, so don’t worry about him.

In his stay, Hong-Chih Kuo picked up a save on August 14th. Two days later, he gave up three runs and was charged with the loss, leading Torre away from the flame throwing lefty. Torre may have considered turning to Octavio Dotel, but he blew the game in the tenth inning a couple of days later.

The boys in blue have three hard throwing relievers who know how to strike batters out, and Torre isn’t afraid to turn to turn to any of them in high leverage situations. Broxton is the closer for now, but Dotel (36% owned) and Kuo (32% owned) aren’t bad guys to have on your roster.

Jay Gibbons | 0% Owned

A former two-and-a-half win player, Gibbons has been given a chance by the Dodgers. He destroyed Triple-A pitching this year, hitting 19 homers in under 400 plate appearances. While he hasn’t gotten too many chances in the bigs, he’s hit two homers in 22 trips to the dish. He had a great line-drive rate in the minors, and while it doesn’t feel like it, he’s only 33 years old. He could still be a major league contributor at the dish, and the Dodgers did well to give him a shot. While he won’t play everyday, keep an eye on Gibbons and add him if something goes down in the Dodgers outfield.

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Third Base: August 24th

I wasn’t going to do one of these this week, but with A-Rod going down, here’s some thoughts on who you could pick up to replace him.

Wilson Betemit | Royals | 4% Owned

Dave talked about him yesterday, but he didn’t care enough to talk about his fantasy value. Betemit has always had the power, and just needed the playing time to be worth picking up. He’s playing every day now, so he’s worth your time. Due to his strikeout and low line drive rates, Betemit’s batting average won’t be pretty, so you have to hope his counting stats are good enough to make up for it. If you want to replace A-Rod’s power, pick him up.

Danny Valencia | Twins | 5% Owned

Valencia won’t give you much power, but he’ll keep your batting average at a respectable level. He’s a pretty low risk fill-in, so pick him up if that’s what you’re looking for.

Josh Bell | Orioles | 1% Owned

Bell is more of a high risk guy, who could really pay off if everything clicks. His bat was just OK in Triple-A this year, but after trading Tejada the Orioles wanted to see if he could handle the big show. He’s a switch-hitter with a great line drive stroke, but he strikes out too much to have a high batting average. He hasn’t shown a ton of power recently, and I don’t expect him to. He needs to work on his contact skills, but is a replacement option if you want to take a chance in a keeper league.

Don Kelly | Tigers | 1% Owned

Kelly has shown a ton of power recently, hitting 3 homers in his past 46 at-bats. The Tigers are giving the 30 year-old lefty some playing time, and he may be able to make the most of it. He’s eligible at first base, and in the outfield as well, so he can give your club some versatility. There isn’t much upside here, but he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if Betemit is taken.

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Late Season Steals

Steals aren’t as tricky of a roto category as some would make it seem. Just like saves, if you want to be competitive in steals, all you have to do is choose to do so. Of course, you’re likely giving up a chance of homers and RBI, but it can be worth it. Make sure to check your league’s standings and determine which categories are within reach to help you climb the ladder. If you need steals the rest of the way, you’re in luck, because two speedsters are readily available.

Coco Crisp | Athletics | 28% Owned

Since returning from the DL, Crisp has been flying around the basepaths. Coming into Sunday’s action, he had stolen five bags in his last five games. He has 21 steals in under 225 plate appearances, and has only been caught twice. His career high for steals was back in 2007, when he nabbed 28 bases in 34 tries. If I were a betting man, I’d throw some gummy bears on Crisp setting a new career high during his shortened 2010 campaign. While his line-drive rate has been a problem, his BABIP is right in line with what we’d expect. A .285 average and a bundle of steals the rest of the way? Sign me up.

Eric Young Jr. | Rockies | 3% Owned

One of the best burglers in the minors is finally getting another chance to prove his major league worth. From 2006-2009, Young never stole less than 45 bases in a year, even reaching as high as 87 steals in A-ball during ‘06. During all of those season, he never batted lower than .290, either. Like Crisp, Young’s BABIP is where close to where xBABIP expects it to be. But unlike Crisp, Young’s batting average won’t help your team. Young’s second base eligibility makes him a nice replacement option for Dustin Pedroia owners, and he should probably be picked up in every keeper league deeper than a standard league.

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Third Base: August 17th

Some notes on three third baseman to start your Tuesday.

Blake DeWitt | Cubs | 2% Owned

DeWitt was the main piece heading back to the Cubs in the Ted Lilly deal, and has made the Cubs very happy with his production thus far. His line drive approach and quickness will allow for his .335 BABIP to say relatively constant, keeping his batting average around .275. If he can cut back on the strikeouts by a couple percent, he will be an even better fantasy (and real life) option. He won’t hit for much power, or steal many bases, but he’s a good option if you are looking for batting average or you need help in an OBP league.

Alex Gordon | Royals | 19% Owned

Since being recalled from the minors, Gordon has hit four homers in 22 plate appearances, and even stole a base. His walk rate in that time has not been good, and his strikeout rate hasn’t been good, either. His BABIP has been low, compared to his line drive rate, so the batting average will come up a bit. His ability to fill both your third base and left field hole helps his value, and he’s still worth an add in deeper and AL-only keeper leagues.

Paul Janish | Reds | 0% Owned

Janish is starting to enter his peak seasons, so it’s now or never for the Cincinnati shortstop. Janish has always hit a strangely high amount of fly balls for a light hitting shortstop, but his BB and K-rates have been consistently good, and getting better. Like DeWitt, Janish is worth a shot in OBP leagues, though he should probably be slotted in at your shortstop position. If you’re in a keeper format, hopefully Janish shows enough on the field for the Reds to consider him for a starting role in 2011, but I wouldn’t count on it.

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First Base: August 17th

Some notes on three first baseman to start your Tuesday.

Carlos Delgado | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Recently signed by the Red Sox, Delgado has already had a setback while playing for Triple-A Pawtucket. He had some stiffness in his back during Sunday’s game, leaving the game after only three innings. The 38-year old has only had fifteen trips to the plate in the minors, so we can’t judge how his bat looks. He has also admitted to his surgically repaired hip being sore, so he is going to need some things to go right for him to make it to the big leagues before sometime in mid-September. For those of you who stashed him when he signed with the Red Sox, he’s not going to be worth the trouble.

Mitch Moreland | Rangers | 0% Owned

After Chris Davis struggled (once again) in the majors, the Rangers turned to their next young first baseman. Rated as the Rangers seventh best prospect by both Marc Hulet and John Sickels, Moreland excelled in Triple-A while playing first base and right field. Just like he’s shown in 43 major league plate appearances, he won’t give you a ton of power, but will reach base at a good clip and smack line drives all over the field. He’s worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, and is a good option in keeper leagues.

Ryan Raburn | Tigers | 4% Owned

Raburn put up huge power numbers last year, but has fallen back down to earth this year. He’s caught fire in August, hitting four homers in 14 games, but his decision to hit fly balls in an attempt to hit home runs will end up killing his batting average. His second base and outfield eligibility helps his value, and he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if you are looking for some power.

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Catchers: August 16th

With my batteries recharged after a “vacation,” here are some catcher notes to start your week.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Seeing Salty in a Red Sox uniform just feels right, doesn’t it? While he hasn’t shown a ton of promise since his big time Triple-A performance in 2008, the Red Sox are going to give him a chance to prove himself in minimal action the rest of the year. He’s still only 25, and he did hit 11 homers in 270 Triple-A plate appearances this year with the Rangers. He didn’t transition into the Red Sox system well, but his 23 trips to the plate don’t deter me. He has a career line drive rate of 21.2%, and a league average walk rate, but he needs to cut back on his strikeouts by around 10%. If Salty can show some progress in the bigs, the Red Sox may decide he’s ready for a bigger role next year if Victor Martinez walks in free agency. If you have a big bench in a keeper league, he might be worth stashing.

Ryan Doumit | Pirates | 40% Owned

When the Pirates acquired Chris Snyder, it seemed like Doumit would be moving to right field full time. Since returning from the DL, he has played in five games, manning right field only once. It appears that the Pirates were intent on giving Jeff Clement another chance to prove himself at first base, and that threw a wrench into Snyder’s playing time behind the dish, and Doumit’s playing time elsewhere. Now that the Pirates have tired of Clement, Doumit should move over to RF with Garrett Jones taking over at first base. A move away from the plate should improve Doumit’s offensive numbers, and he’ll still be catcher eligible next year. While he isn’t a great keeper, he’s still worth a spot on your roster for the rest of the season.

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Third Base: July 27th

Want to know about three random third baseman? You’re in luck!

Bill Hall | Red Sox | 2% Owned

Once a fantasy darling, Hall is now most valuable for his eligibility at multiple positions. Hall has brought his BB% up to his 2005 (35 HR year) levels, and is flashing good power. His batting average is still a big hit, but he’s hit 10 homers and stolen 4 bases in less than 225 plate appearances. Usually this is the part where I tell you to pick up the player in certain leagues, but I’m not going to do that. If you have Hall, don’t drop him, but try to deal him. Ellsbury is starting a rehab stint right now, and Pedroia will be back quickly, so Hall isn’t going to get much PT when those two return.

Jerry Hairston Jr. | Padres | 10% Owned

I love guys who can fill in at both the CI and MI positions, so Hairston is a favorite of mine. He’s currently has 2B/3B/SS/OF eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, and he’s one of the few guys with that sort of flexibility AND playing time. Hairston is having a season on par with his career numbers, but his combo of small power and speed contributions (7 HR, 7 SB) makes him a valuable asset. I picked him up yesterday, and you should think about doing the same if you are in anything deeper than a 12-team standard league.

Chris Johnson | Astros | 3% Owned

Johnson may be one of the many guys who are better fantasy players than they are real baseball players. In the 116 times he’s walked to the plate for Houston this year, Johnson has hit 3 homers and is hitting .315. His BABIP is very high (.390), but his high line drive rate will help him keep the batting average at a reasonable level. Here’s where it gets tricky: He walks less than Miguel Tejada, making him close to worthless in OBP leagues. He’s a good buy in NL-only leagues that have held onto AVG this year, and has some added value in keeper leagues.

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