Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Five.
Brett Cecil – After getting the Rays and the Red Sox in his first two starts this year, Cecil gets a break from AL East opponents this week with road starts in Cleveland and Chicago, two teams with a combined 18-25 record. Cecil has allowed 2 HR in 12.2 IP but the Indians are 13th in the American League in HR. He will face a harder time on that score against the White Sox, but outside of HR, the Chicago offense has been terrible this year. Southpaws have limited the White Sox to a .216/.219/.381 line this season. Cecil is on the waiver wire in most leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two-start week.
Kevin Correia – After losing his first start of the year, Correia has run off four straight wins. But that has had as much to do with the level of offensive support he has received as it has had to do with his pitching. In his last two starts, Correia has 10.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB and 11 H allowed and 2 W. With matchups this week against Ubaldo Jimenez and Roy Oswalt, do not expect the Padres offense to supply him with a ton of runs. Put Correia on the bench this week.
Gavin Floyd – It has been a rough start to 2010 for Floyd, who finally broke into the win column in his last outing. The key was that he did not allow a single walk in 7 IP. Even after that outing, Floyd has a 4.10 BB/9. In the three previous years, Floyd’s highest BB/9 was 3.05. And even with the elevated walk rate, Floyd’s xFIP is 2.42 runs lower than his ERA. With home starts against two sub-.500 teams in the Royals and Blue Jays, Floyd is set up for a good week if he can continue to throw strikes.
Jaime Garcia – As Dave Cameron alluded to yesterday, Garcia has a pretty nice GB rate. Maybe the Cardinals can start removing Skip Schumaker and perhaps even David Freese when he takes the mound. But aside from that, right now Garcia is really outperforming his peripherals. His xFIP is 2.65 runs higher than his ERA. Garcia has yet to allow a run at home this season, but this week he has two road starts, including one against the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Give Garcia a week off if you have a safe alternative.
Max Scherzer – In three of his first four starts this season, Scherzer threw a Quality Start. In his other outing he missed because he only went five innings. In his last start, he got lit up by the Twins. But Scherzer gets a rematch versus Minnesota this week. My opinion is that whenever a pitcher faces a team in back-to-back outings, he usually has the opposite result in the second start. In his other game this week, he faces the weak-hitting Indians, a nice tonic for a pitcher who has allowed a HR in his last four starts. Ignore Scherzer’s poor outing his last time out and keep him active this week.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Five are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Sabathia, Jimenez, Kershaw, Oswalt, Dempster, Shields, Lester, Hamels, Baker, E. Santana, Peavy, Pavano, Harden, Matusz, Braden, Garcia, L. Hernandez, Leake, Kennedy, Sanders, Talbot, A. Sanchez, Blanton, O. Perez, Vargas, Maholm, Kawkami, Guthrie, Meche, Wellemeyer, Narveson, Paulino, Mulvey.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Three pitchers and how they fared.
Bailey – Recommended to sit. 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.677 WHIP
Morrow – Recommended to sit. W, 16 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.077 WHIP
Myers – Recommended to start. W, 8 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.539 WHIP
Pelfrey – Recommended to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP
Slowey – Recommended to start – W, 11 Ks, 3.375 ERA, 1.200 WHIP