Is Magglio Done?

Magglio Ordonez has been one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 10 years. When healthy you can generally pencil him in for a .300 average with 20+ HR and over 100 RBIs. After his monstrous 2007, he came back to earth last year posting his lowest HR and 2B totals in a full year since his first full season in 1998. Is age starting to catch up with the 35 year old OF?

None of his peripheral numbers seem to suggest any aging effects taking their toll. His swinging strike percentage remained around his career average. His batted-ball data was in line with his career averages as well. The only thing that really suffered was his HR/FB%. This might indicate some slowing of his bat, but one year of a downward trend is not something I would bank on. If his peripherals seem to imply that Magglio had another of his dependable, above-average seasons, what should we expect going forward?

I would expect more of the same. I highly doubt we will see Magglio revert to his 2007 ways, but if he’s healthy (which might be a feat for a 35 YO OF) he should post around a .300/.375/.490 line with 20+ homers and runs/RBIs to match. The one issue I have in drafting Ordonez is that people may still see him as the batting title winning Ordonez of 2007. In 5×5 leagues, I would likely slot him in around Andre Ethier, Raul Ibanez, or Brad Hawpe. I tend to be wary of older players, particularly in this post-steroid era. Magglio, though, has been a model of consistency, which bodes well for him going forward.

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3 Responses to “Is Magglio Done?”

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  1. Nick says:

    You forgot to mention that his 2007 season was powered by a .385 BABIP. Of course he was going to regress a lot. Interestingly this years regressed BABIP was also extremely high at .338. If you look at his three seasons after the injury the only year in which his BABIP was at a normal level was in 2006. That year he had a .317 BABIP and his slash line was .298/.350/.477. That season is probably an accurate prediction of what he will do in the future, not the last two heavily BABIP reliant years.

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    • Ryan Glass says:

      I think Mags is a case of a high BABIP-player. His career BABIP is .320, and his BABIP this year wasn’t that far off. I would look for some regression but nothing too crazy.

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      • Nick says:

        HIs BABIP was about .20 points higher than his career. That is significant enough that if it regresses to his career norm, his numbers would take a hit. Not ridiculously, but right around his 06 numbers, which wouldn’t make him a very good player, especially for an outfielder with his defensive woes.

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