Jeepers Keepers! It’s Almost Scoresheet Time!

As some readers may know, I’m involved in a Scoresheet league heavy on current and former Baseball Prospectus types. The draft starts relatively quickly — within the next few days, I think — and I’m starting to think about my keepers for 2013.

If you’re unfamiliar, here’s how it works with keepers:

Any ‘big league’ player kept costs you a pick at the front of the draft. Any ‘minor league’ player costs you a pick on the back end.

Anyway, here’s my roster, with notes after each player:

C- Salvador Perez (definite keeper)
C- Kelly Shoppach (not keeping)
1B- Carlos Pena (not keeping)
1B- Chris Parmelee (not keeping)
2B- Jose Altuve (leaning toward yes)
2B- Steve Lombardozzi (not keeping)
3B- Danny Valencia (haha, no)
3B- Josh Bell (not keeping)
3B- Casey McGehee (not keeping)
3B- Anthony Rendon (keeping)
3B- Josh Vitters (probably only if still a minor leaguer)
SS- Alexei Ramirez (really torn on this one)
SS- Jamey Carroll (not keeping)
SS- Xander Bogaerts (no brainer)
SS- Brian Dozier (not keeping)
SS- Daniel Descalso (not keeping)
SS- Wilmer Flores (no reason not to, right?)
OF- Coco Crisp (not keeping)
OF- Joe Benson (as a minor leaguer, yes)
OF- Trayvon Robinson (not keeping)
OF- Michael Choice (sure, why not)
OF- Yoenis Cespedes (of course)
OF- Jon Jay (hard to say)
OF- Jason Heyward (absolutely)
OF- Max Kepler (yes)

I’d say that’s a decent start for keepers, as I’ll be set at catcher (Perez), 2B (Altuve), and in the OF (Heyward-Cespedes). I’d probably lean toward yes really strongly on Ramirez and Jay, but I’d love to hear what some of the readers have to say. I like the upside of my minor league keepers, as I still believe Benson can get healthy and figure it out, and Bogaerts has a heap of potential.

Let’s look at the pitching staff:

SP- Carl Pavano (not keeping)
SP- Felipe Paulino (leaning towards no due to health)
SP- Nestor Molina (I think so)
SP- Yordano Ventura (no reason not to)
SP- Yu Darvish (obviously)
SP- Deck McGuire (yes)
SP- Chris Sale (obviously)
SP- Alex Wimmers (yup)
SP- Jordan Lyles (don’t think so)
SP- Drew Pomeranz (don’t think so)
SP- Jenrry Mejia (yes)
SP- Matt Purke (yes, but not overwhelmingly)
SP- Jose Berrios (yes, very excited about him)
SP- Luke Bard (yes, just because I can)

I don’t have quite enough to build a rotation on, but Darvish-Sale is a nice 1-2 punch. I only even took a shot on Pavano last year because of his recent durability, and that completely blew up in my face. As a result, I used a ton of AAA pitcher, who went a ghoulish 7-38, and basically kept me from being better than the 76-86 record I sputtered to. I’ll definitely need to add three starters at the very least.

As for the pen, I’d only really keep a bullpen guy if I was near my allotted keepers maximum — which I think is 10 — but anyway, here’s how my pen looked:

RP- Oliver Perez (not keeping)
RP- Jesse Crain (not keeping)
RP- Jordan Walden (not keeping)
RP- Mark Lowe (not keeping)
RP- Jake McGee (doubtful)
RP- Jared Burton (doubtful)
RP- Ernesto Frieri (most likely, but not sure)
RP- Kerry Wood (RIP)

Thoughts on if I would keep anyone there? This is a pen I built almost solely through the late parts of last year’s draft, so I think I might just drop everyone, except maybe Frieri and/or McGee, and revamp yet again.

So if there’s truly a 10 keeper max — of MLB players — we’re looking at:
C Perez
2B Altuve
SS Ramirez
OF Cespedes
OF Heyward
SP Sale
SP Darvish

I think seven might be an ideal number so I can get in the draft early and start looking at a third baseman and probably another solid starter. Any thoughts, comments, or ridicule to pass my way?

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In addition to Rotographs, Warne is a former Minnesota Twins beat writer for 1500 ESPN Twin Cities, and current sportswriter for Sports Data LLC in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com

27 Responses to “Jeepers Keepers! It’s Almost Scoresheet Time!”

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  1. SKob says:

    I don’t even think I like Jay more than Crisp, so if one is an easy no the other should be also. Alexei is probably a good keep. Every short stop worth anything will probably be kept, so why not protect him, but then again, if it’s likely others will be keeping the better short stops, he might be there a few rounds into your draft still, allowing you to get something better early on. Worst case, you take a shot on Stephen Drew or something! Kind of a tough call, but I don’t think it’ll really hurt you to drop him and it may open you up to a better player.

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  2. rotowizard says:

    Jenrry Mejia is currently the best ML pitcher in my current OOTP league. So there’s that. I’d probably lean towards keeping the Cuban Missile as you don’t really have any other SS options and I doubt the pick you’d get for him would be better. Or roll the dice and get (stuck with?) Clint Barmes, although if Chase D’Arnaud gets 300+ ABs this season he could swipe 20+ SB. Or he could hit .190. Or both.

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  3. Jeff Luhnow says:

    With all due respect, your keeper roster is awful.

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  4. If you’re keeping any RPs at all, McGee’s a no-brainer. If you can snag him later in the draft, do that.

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  5. coreyjro says:

    With no details about the league it’s difficult to say who I’d keep. If it’s standard scoring I think Crisp is a better keeper than Jay. If it’s only 10 teams I’d throw every single major leaguer back.

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  6. d_i says:

    Two things. 1. how many teams in the league? I’m guessing 20. 2. I have more confidence in me becoming a good major league pitcher than Alex Wimmers. Seriously. I don’t care if the league is 2,000 guys deep – the 2,000th guy will be better.

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  7. Paul says:

    As a fellow Twins fan, I’d love to hear more about Jose Berrios. Having Danny Valencia on your roster makes you a little less credible but I’d still like your thoughts. I remember that 3 day period 2 years ago when Valencia was the long term answer for the Twins at 3rd base. LOL!!!!

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  8. Jon Jay says:

    You’re keeping too many minors guys. Wimmers is strictly scrap heap, while Benson and McGuire seem like longshots. Every minors keeper costs you a late pick to build your bullpen. I agree, keep Crisp over myself (depending on how the fielding ratings turn out) and McGee will be very useful if it’s a 20 team.

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    • Yeah, maybe I’ll just keep one or two minors guys…but guys like Matt Purke are tough for me. I know he was awful last season but I can’t sell my future too far down the line either.

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      • Jon Jay says:

        You’ve got 6 to 8 good minors keepers, in my opinion. I’ve seen people carry a dozen or more and be succesful when
        their MLB core is solid enough. If it’s an active league with a lot of trading the minors keepers are good chips to use to fill your holes at the MLB level later on. If you can bear to part with them, that is.

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    • Jimmy D says:

      Deck Mcguire was horrible last season. I don’t have much hope for him, so I’m dropping him from my AL team

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  9. jonkk says:

    Everyone: Scoresheet is a simulation game, playing your roster against other teams rosters, based on players’ performances from the prior week. The software plays an actual game, going through the batting order you’ve set up and utlizing the rotation and bullpen order you’ve set (vs. LH and RH). Defense matters a bit.

    Most Scoresheet leagues have 13 major league keepers and the number of minor league keepers varies (from 3 to kind of unlimited). The MLB keepers represent rounds 1-13, the regular draft is 14-35, and there are five 2-rd. supplemental drafts during the season. Minor league keepers typically replace your last round draft picks (3 prospects would eliminate rds. 33-35).

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    • Jay Stevens says:

      Thanks for pointing out the usual rules for Scoresheet — something I wanted to do, too, because, even though I’m a SS manager and won my league the past two years, I don’t feel at all able to comment on Warne’s roster because of his league’s unique rules.

      Ten keepers? You get front-end draft picks for coming under the 10-player limit? I’m not sure how many teams there are in the league, but I’m guess at least 24, given the fact that this roster won 76 games last year.

      In short, the value of players and picks are completely alien to me.

      That said, it seems to me in this league, a good strategy may be to keep only star players in order to get the top draft picks. So keep Darvish, Sale, Cespedes, Heyward, and maybe Perez.

      But that’s assuming everyday players appear at the top of drafts. If that’s the case, having higher draft picks should, in theory, nab you the best everyday players available in the draft.

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  10. Miles says:

    I don’t like the keep of Deck McGuire.

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  11. KJ says:

    I am really on the fence about keeping Pomeranz too. So much potential but not really worth it if the Rockies keep up their 4-man rotation.

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  12. JRM says:

    Preamble: This is a soft-10 regular, unlimited rookie keeper setup with 24 teams. Value is roughly MLB value, except there aren’t park adjustments. (You can platoon.)

    Alexei will get a good defensive rating, but is 31 and was terrible last year. I’d much rather cobble together some options later. You’ll surely be able to reacquire him in R7.

    Altuve’s a fine tenth keep, but he’s a dubious sixth keep. With your team, I’d probably keep him anyway and hope. Some of your other guys (like McGee) might be a decent 10th keeper, but can’t be kept on your team.

    Prospecting in a soft-10 requires you to either keep guys who are likely to get some PT this year, or who have a chance to be stars. Everyone else gets cut; you’re keeping too many.

    Good luck.

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  13. ceelanks says:

    Something to think about in Scoresheet: what’s the redraft ability available at a certain position in r.14, r.17, and r.20? Take F.Paulino, if you don’t think someone takes him before r.20, then why think about keeping him?
    I’ve studied SPs and found that the top 15 SPs are worth their weight in gold (averaging 5-6 WARs) but the next 15 SPs are only averaging 3-4 WAR and then it’s a steady drop-off of 0.5 WAR per 20 SPs. In a 12-team league there will be about 60 SPs kept, so you want to target the SPs who are rated at 2.5 WAR but will have 4.0 WAR seasons. In summary, keep those who have the largest current WAR to redraft WAR different. This should help clarify your Altuve strategy.

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  14. Andreas says:

    I continue to be baffled by the lack of respect given to Jon Jay. Crisp over Jay? In a keeper league? Jay has been better each of the past 2 seasons, Crisp is 33 and Jay is 27. Doesn’t make any sense.

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  15. aj says:

    wow that would be a last place team for a 150 team mixed league

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  16. joe bananas says:

    i’m not sure sale will stay healthy enough to pay dividends in a keeper league. i’m actively trying to spin him, profar and brett anderson into a good position player (or players). we only get to keep players for 3 years, so it’s a tricky balance of win now/win later.

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  17. Jimmy D says:

    What’s with all the minor league Twins players?!

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