Jermaine Dye and the Cell

Jermaine Dye had a career year in 2006 and turned in a top 10 fantasy season for hitters. Predictably he fell off that pace in 2007, a fall aided by a 63-point drop in BABIP and a recurring quadriceps injury. He rebounded in 2008 to be a top 40 fantasy hitter. The mock draft crowd is not convinced that Dye will maintain all of the recovery he made last year, as they have given him an ADP of 86.

The biggest concern surrounding Dye seems to be his AVG. He has a lifetime .276 mark in the category, and all five of the projection systems show him within a few points either way of that mark. Yet Dye has beaten his career average in two of the past three seasons, by 16 and 39 points.

The year in the last three that Dye did not beat his lifetime average he had a .271 BABIP. He has a career .302 mark in the category. Last year Dye had a .305 BABIP and finished with a .292 average.

Another factor in Dye’s poor 2007 season is that he did not take advantage of his home park. After posting a .307/.393/.595 line at U.S. Cellular Field in 2006, Dye hit only .258/.317/.384 at home in 2007. Last year he posted a .336/.388/.608 line in one of the best hitter’s parks in the game.

Earlier, there were reports that the White Sox were looking to move Dye but nothing has come from that so far. If Dye gets to hit 81 games in Chicago, he has a very good chance to exceed his ADP. He is not someone you want to move too far up from his current ranking, which has him as an early eighth-round pick, but Dye is someone who offers upside at his current draft position.




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