Jimenez, Adams, Uehara: Trade Ramifications

The following is a quick look at how the fantasy value changed for a few players involved in trades that were made this weekend.

Ubaldo Jimenez (to Indians) – Ubaldo’s fantasy value doesn’t look to change much by going from the Rockies to the Indians. The most obvious change is that he should allow less runs by moving from a hitter friendly park in Denver to a league neutral park in Cleveland. On the other hand, the Indian’s defense (-16.6 UZR) is worse than the Rockies (-0.8 UZR) which will lead to higher ERA and WHIP as more batted balls become hits. Also, he will be facing a little tougher competition in the AL, so his ERA and WHIP could go higher.

His win rate should be close to the same because both offenses supporting him are similar (Rockies 93 wRC+, Indians 95 wRC+) taking into account the different run environments. I don’t really see any reason for his K and BB to change much.

His ERA may decrease, even without the change in stadiums. Currently, he has an ERA of 4.46 which is almost a point higher than his FIP(3.54), xFIP (3.56) and SIERA (3.94). With a little regression, his ERA could head lower.

Mike Adams (to Rangers) – Adam’s fantasy value could have ended up completely different considering the many different trade deadline scenarios. After the dust settled, he ended up in Texas, with the following changes to his fantasy value:

1. He has a better chance to accumulate saves compared to when the weekend started. It might have been ideal for him to see Heath Bell get traded and then take over as the closer in San Diego. Instead, he has been designated as the set up man to Neftali Feliz. Feliz has had a shaky season in the pen and Adams may eventually take over his closer role.
2. His rate stats (ERA and WHIP) should increase a bit. He is going from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in San Diego to a hitter’s park in Texas.

Koji Uehara (to Rangers) – On Saturday when Uehara was traded, he looked to be in the role that Mike Adams is currently in, Feliz’s setup man. Uehara should be a decent source of K’s and rate stats, but it looks like his path to accumulating saves is blocked by a couple of pitchers.

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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

2 Responses to “Jimenez, Adams, Uehara: Trade Ramifications”

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  1. Tom T says:

    “Fewer runs!” Sorry… it’s a pet peeve. Otherwise nice article!

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  2. jim says:

    dont forget that while yes, they are going to an extreme hitters park, they also dont have to face the rangers… the AL west isn’t exactly full of great hitters outside texas

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