Joe Mauer Hour: If You Read Slowly

On the surface, Joe Mauer’s 2013 season looks like business as usual. In fact, compare the lines:

.324/.404/.476 in 2013
—————————————-
.323/.405/.468 career mark

But it would be foolhardy to think it’ll be business as usual with Mauer going forward, and there are a few reasons why.

The biggest elephant in the room is the concussion Mauer sustained in mid-August against the Mets. Mauer remained out for the rest of the season, and questions still linger about how much, if at all, he can catch moving forward.

And since we’re addressing/assessing catcher value here, well, that’s sort of a big elephant.

If Mauer moves to first base, he becomes sort of a rich man’s version of John Olerud. And certainly YOU aren’t a man rich enough to pay him his catcher price at first base, right? But in all seriousness, it isn’t entirely clear what type of production he’d have at first base. In terms of real-life production, he could probably be a +3.0-win or better first sacker, but with limited power and not many teammates to drive in, is there a ton of value there?

It’s hard to say.

Another potential issue with Mauer was that he struck out at a much higher frequency in 2013 than he had at any other point in his career. It wasn’t close, either, as Mauer whiffed in 17.5% of his plate appearances this season (previous career high: 13.7%). In fact, that marks the fourth-straight campaign in which the otherwise pesky Mauer saw an increase in his strikeout rate.

The largely-believed reason for Mauer’s spike in strikeout rates has been that he’s altered his approach to be more aggressive deep in counts to attempt to have higher-yield plate appearances (OPS, strikeout percentage).

Check out the results (2013 | Career):
0-2 counts: .458, 43.8% | .559, 29.9%
After 0-2: .672, 37.9% | .593, 26.7%
After 1-2: .719, 33.8% | .627, 23.9%
After 2-2: .923, 22.4% | .721, 20.8%
Full Count: .983, 17.1% | .958, 13.7%

So unless I’m totally wrong here, Mauer has forsaken his otherwise conservative approach for an increased yield, and outside of 0-2 counts, it’s working.

So to that end, it seems as though Mauer — long lauded for being a disciple to his own approach — has artificially inflated his strikeout rate a bit, though it’s still unclear to what extent, and perhaps a bit worrisome that’s it’s still (ostensibly) moving in the wrong direction.

Keep an eye on Mauer news this offseason. Hey, I might even break some of it as part of my other job on twitter @Brandon_Warne.

Sorry for the shameless plug, but if Mauer sticks at catcher, there could be a little buy-low potential. Don’t go overboard however, because he may be tethered to first base, not only because of his health woes, but also because the Twins don’t have any in-house options to play first, and have Josmil Pinto coming up in the pipeline to displace Mauer.




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In addition to Rotographs, Warne is a former Minnesota Twins beat writer for 1500 ESPN Twin Cities, and current sportswriter for Sports Data LLC in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com


13 Responses to “Joe Mauer Hour: If You Read Slowly”

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  1. Mario Mendoza says:

    Wait, what? I didn’t know about this change in approach. I think it deserves more analysis.

    First: is it true? What is the swing% on those splits?

    Second: Why did you show only pitcher’s counts? Is he not also more aggressive with deep hitter’s counts? Or is he just throwing caution to the wind when he falls behind, in hopes of making something happen?

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  2. Gardy says:

    Mauer is and always has been a puss. I cannot believe the Twins gave such a soft player 100+ million as he looks for any excuse to sit. When he quits catching because of “cuts and scrapes” the Twins will be settled with a 20 million dollar James Loney playing first base.

    This Mauer deal makes the Chan Ho Park contract look smart!

    The Twins are a MESS!

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  3. masonzippo says:

    Mauer career wRC 134, WAR 44; Loney career wRC 105 (.285/.340./.421). Maybe a better comparison is Adrian Gonzalez – career wRC 132, 31.6 WAR (.294/.367./.501)?

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  4. Joe Cool says:

    Mauer will probably hit better if he doesn’t have to play catcher.

    His K rate declined as the season progressed so I think it was just a short term anomaly.

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  5. Tim says:

    I know very little about fantasy mechanics, but it seems remarkably unlikely to me that Mauer will not qualify at catcher in 2014. It’s probably more likely that he doesn’t play at all.

    The Twins only have two remotely decent catchers, and it’s very much not their MO to pick up a potential starter in free agency to push Mauer out of the job. I expect they will give him a good chance there rather than going with a full season of Pinto and Herrmann. (Even the Twins have now recognized that Ryan Doumit isn’t really a catcher.)

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    • steve says:

      Agreed, he should be eligible at catcher in almost all leagues regardless. And if he does move to first he should rack up the plate appearances and counting stats, maybe even making him undervalued.

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  6. Andyboy says:

    I definitely believe that Mauer is already on the decline just because of all of the injuries. With that said I’ve always thought he was overrated if you look at his stats he’s really only had 1 true great season his MVP year. He always seemed to hit for average which is a plus as a catcher but behind the plate nothing special and has never consistently hit for power or at least drive in runs. Like I said he’s really only had 1 standout season.

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  7. Tim says:

    And what was he on in his one great standout year???

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