Josh Beckett Is A Big Winner In L.A.

Josh Beckett has hardly lived up to expectations this season. While it had become apparent that he had drawn the ire of Boston fans, Beckett was beginning to have the same effect on his fantasy owners. With the trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Beckett’s fortunes should be on the rise. As our own Eno Sarris pointed out, there are many reasons to think Beckett will improve out West. With the playoffs quickly approaching, Beckett could become a useful fantasy asset again.

Beckett should immediately gain value just by switching leagues. We know that it’s beneficial for pitchers to face fewer designated hitters, but it’s good to know how big the disparity is between both leagues.

League BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
AL 8.00% 19.10% 0.157 0.293 0.256 0.321 0.413 0.319 99
NL 8.00% 20.10% 0.147 0.299 0.254 0.318 0.401 0.312 94

Across the board, NL hitters are inferior to AL hitters. Using wOBA as a guideline, the average hitter in the AL is as good as 2012 Jhonny Peralta. The average NL hitter is 2012 Marco Scutaro. That’s not as great of a disparity as one might expect, but it’s still a point in Beckett’s favor. Another nice thing about NL hitters is that they’ve hit for less power than AL hitters this season. Since Beckett has struggled with the home run — he has a 1.13 HR/9 — that could bode well for him.

At the same time, giving up home runs could have been a factor a Beckett’s ballpark. Fenway Park is notoriously known as a hitter’s park, while Dodgers Stadium plays friendlier to pitchers.

Park K (LHB/RHB) nB (LHB/RHB) 1B 2B/3B HR
Fenway Park 101, 93 102, 100 106, 103 125, 123 83, 107
Dodgers Stadium 101, 100 98, 102 102, 101 90, 86 108, 101

Overall, Fenway is a much better hitter’s park. Home runs, however, could still be a problem. While Fenway allowed home runs to right-handers at a decent clip, it suppressed power against lefties. That’s not going to be the case in L.A. Dodgers Stadium has above-average home run rates against both types of hitters, but the park is slightly more advantageous to lefties.

That could be an issue for Beckett. His numbers have been far worse against left-handed hitters this year. Lefties have hit .272/.332/.489 against Beckett, with 11 of his 16 home runs. Beckett attempts to offset those struggles with a slightly higher strikeout rate against lefties, but it’s not high enough to be effective. With lefties hitting him well all season, and especially for power, his home run problems might not go away just because he changed parks. There’s actually a chance they could get a little worse. Dodgers Stadium does suppress doubles and triples, however, so Beckett will see some gain there.

Moving to the Dodgers is ultimately a good move for Beckett. He’ll be in an easier league, and his new park is more favorable to pitchers. Home runs could remain a problem, though, making Beckett far from a sure-start in most leagues. Down the stretch, Beckett should face the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Rockies at home. While using him against the Cardinals would be risky, he could have value in the other two starts. If his road starts come in San Francisco and Washington, there’s some value in starting him there as well. Unfortunately, Beckett’s first start is in Colorado, so you may want to hold off on your excitement until next week.




Print This Post

Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.


4 Responses to “Josh Beckett Is A Big Winner In L.A.”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Bryan Grosnick says:

    Just out of curiosity, the stats say that wOBA, SLG, etc. is worse in the NL, but you mentioned that the hitters are worse. Are we absolutely sure that the stats are down in the NL because the hitters are worse, or is there the possibility that the pitchers in the AL, across the board, are better? Could it be the combination of the two factors?

    Also, does your table take into account pitchers hitting? I’d be interested to see what the difference If it does, of course Beckett may have an easier time in the NL, but it would be interesting to know how much of the difference is related to the actual talent disparity, rather than the league-wide rule difference.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. johnnycuff` says:

    good stuff, but i don’t think moving to the NL is going to fix his across the board velocity drop. his numbers should improve, but to me he’s just a spot starter.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Fred says:

    Remember the” Meadow and Tony Soprano go to Maine to visit colleges” episode that everybody thought was the best Sopranos episode ever?….Remember the two derelicts (man and woman drug addicts that looked like a couple) Fabian Petrulio hired to kill Tony?…I would start either one of those before Josh Beckett…I wouldn’t pitch Beckett in the Atlantic League…I would rather find Kevin Ritz and pitch him than Beckett…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. kodamatree says:

    Looks like Beckett didn’t get his fried chicken before the game.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>