Keeper Conundrums: Outfield, Part Two

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Carlos Beltran
Coming back from offseason knee trouble, Beltran showed some promise that could leave owners hopeful heading into 2011. With an extra offseason of rest, could Beltran actually return to his old self? A move out of center field could help the former star, and who knows if the new Mets’ management will do the right thing.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 14 HR, 8 SB
Verdict: Cut. I’d rather have an outfielder without knee problems. Don’t buy into his name value.

Colby Rasmus
I was pretty high on Rasmus coming into the season, picking him up as a bench option in as many leagues as possible. If he wasn’t drafted, he was grabbed off the waiver wire early on thanks to a hot September. He slowed down, and Tony La Russa isn’t his biggest fan, but he still managed over 500 plate appearances for the second straight year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 25 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Keep. Don’t trick yourself into thinking he’s a .300/30/30 guy, though. He never will be.

Drew Stubbs
Stubbs is a classic example of what most owners view as a replacement level fantasy player. He’s always on the waiver wire, usually owned by a few different teams, because he’s such a tantalizing talent. His counting stats are great, and I think he’s going to be a 30/30 guy at some point in his career. His strikeout rate is just plain ugly, so he’ll have to put some work in if he wants to become more of a complete player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.340, 25 HR, 35 SB
Verdict: Keep. His power and speed combo is too good to ignore.

Jacoby Ellsbury
After being viewed as a heel by most Red Sox fans, Ellsbury could very well be in a different uniform when 2011 begins. After stealing 70 bases in 2009, Ellsbury followed it up with 7 steals this season. He still has a ton of speed, and could easily swipe 50+ bases again next season.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 40 SB
Verdict: Cut. If you wanted Ellsbury this year, you had to take him in the second or third round. I’m not willing to pay that price again.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

20 Responses to “Keeper Conundrums: Outfield, Part Two”

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  1. Nick says:

    Stubbs or Bruce? better long term?

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    • Mike L says:

      I think Bruce is the more stable option. I still have a hard time believing Stubbs’ power numbers are legit.

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  2. Phil Plantier says:

    LaPorta (has Yahoo OF eligibility), Snider, Sizemore?

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  3. Tom B says:

    I was expecting to see Justin Upton here at some point…

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  4. Maddon says:

    Desmond Jennings?

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  5. Nickle says:

    A cheap Desmond Jennings in a deep AL-only league?

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  6. Mike L says:

    So will Ellsbury be a top 50-pick next year? I don’t see any reason to expect his projections for 2011 to be any different from 2010, when he was a top-25 player. I’ve seen other sites barely list him as a top 100 player for 2011, which seems insane. His rib injury should be 100% healed by next year, and shouldn’t impact his SB totals.

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  7. Joser says:

    Nick Markakis and Travis Snider, are they worth owning for next year? Snider showed flashes of becoming what people thought, and he’s still only 22. Markakis on the other hand is constantly losing slugging and losing value. Either guy worth holding on to?

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    • hjhjkhjk says:

      Snider, before his wrist injury, was absolutely raking for a few weeks… In the last few weeks of the season where he finally played everyday he raked yet again.
      He is going to hit 30 homers if he plays every game next year.

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  8. Zach Sanders says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    I’m seeing Travis Snider, Jay Bruce, and Desmond Jennings and I’m going to run with those for next week.

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  9. steve says:

    How about Andre Ethier?

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  10. Michael says:

    Mike Stanton?

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  11. Owen says:

    Yeah. Mike Stanton.

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  12. Andrew says:

    Andres Torres (7 keeper league)

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  13. Double J says:

    Andres Torres in NL-only league. FWhat can we expect from him next year 15-20 again?

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  14. Ennead says:

    Standard roto 4X4. 10 keepers, 1 spot, 2 OFs at $2 each: Fernando Martinez or Cameron Maybin?

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  15. Ricky Imperiai says:

    what do you think about trading Rasmus and Daniel Hudson, total salary 1.50 for Andrew Mccutchen .50?

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  16. Alexa says:

    There was only one choice for the Insider’s Attacking Player of the Week, yes that’s right: James Beattie. Actually it's Fernando Torres.

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