Keeper Conundrums: Shortstop
All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some shortstops.
Derek Jeter
The Captain was drafted pretty high this year, and his production was lacking. He’s going to be 37 next June, so this isn’t the time to own Jeter if you haven’t already.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 10 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Cut. He’s still worthy of a roster spot, but not at his keeper price.
Jimmy Rollins
Rollins is another aging shortstop who has had a bad year, but he’s not as old as Jeter. Rollins will be 32 by the time the 2011 season rolls around, so he’s not at the bottom of the hill quite yet. For the first time in his career, Rollins did not step to the plate at least 625 times due to injury. However, he walked more than he struck out for the first time in his career, and was only thrown out once on the basepaths.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.335, 12 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Cut. His value will not equal his price.
Starlin Castro
While Castro was a solid performer in real life, his fantasy value was limited by his lack of counting stats. Castro did steal ten bags, but he did that in 18 tries. Plus, his average is going to be a product of his BABIP, which sat around .350 this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .300/.355, 5 HR, 12 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s got the ability to rack up counting stats at some point, and he won’t hurt you in the meantime.
Alcides Escobar
Escobar came into 2010 with huge expectations, and fulfilled none of them. But, for the most part, his lack of production wasn’t his fault. The Brewers didn’t give him many chances to run, and his BABIP was absurdly low.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 20 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you reached for him based on upside, you should cut him. But, his market value should be fair enough.
Cliff Pennington
Pennington is a typical Billy Beane player. He keeps the strikeouts to a minimum, plays solid defense, and walks at an average rate. While I thought he’d be a valuable player in real life, I never suspected fantasy success so soon.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.350, 7 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s been undervalued because of his average, which should change next season.
If you have a shortstop you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.
no alex gonzalez? no alexei ramirez? i think i’m done reading these lists.
Are you really on the fence about either of those?
depending on how a keeper league is contructed? uh… yeah. was anyone really on the fence about jeter or rollins?
Both are big names with past success. I can’t read minds, but I’m willing to bet that yes, people are on the fence with them.
I think the author is assuming these are leagues where you have to give up the draft pick that you used to get a player if you want to keep him. If you aren’t on the fence about Jeter and Rollins in that context, then you should be.
How about Elvis Andrus?
I had Andrus this past season in an auction league; I think I am going to let him go and try and get him for less.
It would be helpful if there were a list of definite keepers to start out each post, so we can see the ones you assume are definitely in one category or another.
If they are definite, they don’t need to be on the list.
If he is better than the names on this list, Tulo, Han Ram, you keep them. If they are worse cut.
I think Reyes is a candidate for comment though.
I considered him, but odds are you got him at decent price this year, so I thought it wouldn’t be worth it to have him on here. I’ll think about it, though.
How about Stephen Drew?
There’s some talk of Lowrie beating out Scutaro for the starting SS job in Boston next season. Project his 2010 numbers over a significant number of plate appearances and you actually get a pretty legitimate 2B/SS.
The only way Lowrie doesn’t beat out Scutaro is if hes hurt again.
Lowrie looks like hes going to put up an .850+ OPS and play better than average defense at SS. Thats not just legitimate, thats a star.
Reid Brignac. 20 team keeper league. He’s at $10, but I wonder if he has real fantasy value because he doen’t hit a ton of hr or steal a ton of bases. Keep him at that price?
What about Aybar? In a 20 team league and he would cost me a late round (20th or so) draft pick.
How about Ian Desmond or Johnny Peralta in a 20 team league. They both seem like interesting players.
What do you think of Reyes for $27? I’m really on the fence about that. I’m bullish on Reyes’s rates but not on his games played.
The league is $310 for 28 roster spots, I have a deep mix of keepers with Longoria ($41), Miggy($36), Wainwright ($29), Cruz ($26), Posey ($16), Liriano $12), Morrison ($8), Carlos Santana ($8). I’m also going to make a decision later on Infante ($8) and Stauffer ($8) depending on certain team specific factors.
Of course I’ll be pursuing trades for guys like Stanton and Bautista who cost $8.
Ian Desmond in a 16 team league. We have elaborate keeper rules and I would have to forsake drafting in round 11 to keep Desmond. I worry about a sophomore slump a la Tulowitzki…
How many keepers? 11th round is completely arbitrary…if you are keeping 1 player apiece, then obviously not, but if you are keeping 12 it seems that the pool would be so thin by then that it’s worth it.