Keeper League ‘Would You Rather?’ – Asdrubal Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez?
With so many articles discussing players and fantasy strategies to help advance you in the standings this year, it’s time to throw a bone to those in keeper leagues that are out of contention in 2011 and are already thinking about what to do in 2012. Remember the game “Would You Rather…?” I’m sure most of you do, but if you don’t, it’s simple. You’re given two choices — sometimes both really good and sometimes both absolutely horrific. Either way, you are obligated to pick one over the other. Well, this is going to be an ongoing keeper league series now in which you’re given two options of which player you’d rather keep for the following season. Since we’re in Erik Hahmann’s regular shortstop article time slot, we’ll begin there…
Would you rather keep Asdrubal Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez?
A year or two ago, this was the easiest no-brainer of them all. Ramirez was a clear-cut top three overall draft choice with fantastic power and outstanding speed. He was hitting over .300 each season and was the ultimate 5-tool player in one of the thinnest positions in the game. Cabrera was just getting his feet wet and still developing as a player. There was talk of a potential power/speed combo in scouting reports, but with little to show for it on the big league level. Until this season…
Let’s start with the basic counting stats, the ones that actually make up the offensive categories in fantasy:
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 76 | 20 | 74 | 16 | .288 | .348 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 55 | 10 | 45 | 20 | .243 | .333 |
After a quick glance, it’s very easy to see that Cabrera is having the better season this year. And if you look comparatively to years past, you’ll also see that he has vastly improved his level of production while Ramirez seems to be in a steady decline. Yes, Ramirez has spent a lot of time on the shelf due to injury this season, but even if you adjust his numbers to the total plate appearances that Cabrera has had this year, Ramirez’ production overall, still falls short.
Now let’s look at some of the peripherals:
| BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | WAR | |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 6.8% | 16.9% | .192 | .318 | .363 | 4.1 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 11.4% | 17.1% | .136 | .275 | .318 | 1.3 |
Again, Cabrera showing more dominance here in every category except walk rate. But everything else, from power to on-base skills, Cabrera has a distinct edge. And the value comparison to their respective team’s success is monumental.
Clearly, in 2011, Cabrera has been the more valuable player and a much better value in fantasy based on where these guys were drafted at the start of the season. Now the question remains as to which one you would rather own heading into next year. Will Cabrera continue his growth and improve upon his 2011 totals? Is this really the decline of Hanley Ramirez?
There are a number of factors that come into your decision making, but the most important are the answers to the aforementioned questions and what it will cost you in keeping one over the other. Personally, I’m choosing Ramirez over Cabrera without batting an eye, regardless of the cost. You can chalk up the bad season to a number of factors, primarily the injuries and the disgruntled attitude. Ramirez isn’t staying with the Marlins for long and they will be happy to have someone pick up the remaining $46.5M he’s owed over the next three years. Once he finds himself on a different team, we will likely see totals reminiscent of his 2008 season. Cabrera, on the other hand, has probably reached his ceiling, even at the ripe old age of 25. If he does improve, he’s still not touching the levels of what Ramirez can do.
Not even close. I’d rather have Ramirez than any other SS with the exception of Tulo (Yes, I don’t want to deal with the injury-prone Reyes). Cabrera is in the next tier with Castro, Andrus and Rollins.
Value is obviously a huge issue here. In a league I’m in, Hanley’s salary is $50 while I’m holding Asdrubal at $1. I am certainly happy that I have Cabrera rather than Ramirez given the risk, and at those prices would certainly be letting Hanley walk rather than Cabrera if I happened to have both. Given that these valuations are likely similar to those faced by others, I’d have to suspect that the vast majority of people would prefer to keep Asdrubal.
The risk of keeping Hanley at the salary it would have taken to acquire him in the first place is simply too high. Spend that money elsewhere and enjoy the bargain that is Cabrera. He doesn’t have to keep playing at this level to provide surplus value, whereas with Hanley, anything other than a return to his MVP-caliber performance would likely mean you’re overpaying for him.
However, all contracts being equal, I’d likely hold onto Ramirez over Cabrera.
If this is going to become a regular feature, you should put a poll at the end of every article.
“…and they will be happy to have someone pick up the remaining $46.5M he’s owed over the next three years.”
What?? I don’t mean to be contradictory, but this is not even close to true. As a Giants fan, I’d love if you were correct, but I can’t imagine this being remotely true.
Yeah, I can’t remember the last time I saw something on Fangraphs that was so obviously, objectively wrong. As a Yankee fan, I’d take on Ramirez’ $46.5 million, and offer Eduardo Nunez and any four prospects the Marlines wanted (Montero and Banuelos and pick ‘em).
Ramirez. But not at $50, where I have him.
I’d take Ramirez if cost isn’t an issue.
Question for the masses: $260 cap, 12 team league starting C 1B 2B SS 3B OF OF OF Util
would you keep Jose Reyes at $31 or Jhonny Peralta at $6?
When I read, Cabrera showing more dominance here in every category except walk rate, I asked myself: How does one dominate BABIP? Isn’t that almost wholly, definitionally luck?
For pitchers, it largely is (although “wholly, definitionally” is a bit much). Not so much for hitters. Check, say, Derek Jeter for proof. Or Willie Keeler if you’re me and a huge fan of the 1894 Baltimore Orioles.