Keeper Question: Jaime Garcia

If the Cardinals have any hope for Adam Wainwright to return next year to the form that made him a top-of-the-line pitcher, they need only to look at another pitcher already in their rotation. Jaime Garcia missed most of the 2009 season after undergoing the procedure following the 2008 season. In his first full season back, Garcia not only pitched quite well, he did so in the majors, having broken camp with the Cards in something of a surprise move.

In a weaker field, he might have been able to earn Rookie of the Year honors, but 2010’s class was stocked — Buster Posey was the winner over Jason Heyward, Garcia, Gaby Sanchez, and Starlin Castro — so stealing the prize was somewhat out of the realm of possibility.

Not much changed in Garcia’s overall numbers from 2010 to 2011 except a small bump up in ERA:

2010: 13-8, 1.31 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.70 ERA
2011: 13-7, 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.56 ERA

How he reached those numbers did change a little. He dropped his BB/9 from 3.5 to 2.3, but gave up more hits — 8.3 per 9 in 2010 and 9.6 in 2011 — due in no small part to a rise in BABIP from .292 to .318. There’s nothing worrying in his small BABIP rise, his LD% stayed almost identical; he allowed a few more fly balls, but nothing that would portend a change in pitching style or effectiveness in 2012. Unless he suddenly finds the worlds luckiest rabbit’s foot or accidentally spills salt all over a broken mirror, I expect a WHIP in the 1.25-1.35 range and about 7 K/9, the wins and ERA will be what they will be.

If I were evaluating a the Cardinals staff simply on its merits, I’d look at Garcia as a strong third starter behind Chris Carpenter and Wainwright — provided my belief that he’ll be back at near full capacity is correct — though if he were to be traded to a lesser pitching staff, he could be a solid secondary option.

So why don’t I like him in fantasy?

The answer is that I do, despite what you might read in the comments. Garcia is the type of pitcher who turns good rotations into great rotations, but not if he’s your best or second best pitcher. I just don’t see him as being integral enough to anyone’s pitching staff to be worth keeping. In NL-only, if you’re cobbling together a staff of middle tier options, relying on low ERA and WHIP with few high strikeout options, I can see where having someone at least in the 7-7.5 K/9 range would seem important, and in that case I can abide keeping Garcia.

Especially In mixed however, there are just other options out there that can match Garcia’s ERA and WHIP, while posting better strikeout numbers at a lower ADP or auction cost. Scott Baker is just one I expect to post strong numbers next year, but who was drafted lower than Garcia this year and will likely be drafted lower again next year. Ian Kennedy and James Shields were both taken after Garcia in 2011 and produced far better.

Garcia offers little downside, which certainly separates him from players like Cory Luebke or Ricky Nolasco, who have shown good numbers in the past, but who have serious questions regarding their ability to do so again in 2012. His good groundball numbers are appealing, especially if the Cardinals are successful in re-signing Rafael Furcal — if they’re left with Ryan Theriot again, even a good groundball rate won’t help Garcia prevent hits very well.

The takeaway here should be that Garcia is a better pitcher in real life than he is in most versions of fantasy, and pitchers like that frequently get drafted above their value. That doesn’t mean I don’t like him, doesn’t mean I wouldn’t draft him if he slipped into the range I think his value merits, it just means I see better value out there and — here’s the theme again — with the depth of pitching right now, overpaying is not an option. I realize this probably won’t assuage his most ardent backers, but it’s a more robust explanation of my opinion than you’ll see tomorrow in the next set of NL SP rankings.

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Dan enjoys black tea, imperial IPAs, and any competition that can be loosely judged a sport. Follow him on Twitter.

11 Responses to “Keeper Question: Jaime Garcia”

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  1. batpig says:

    thank you for taking the time to address this… I am not an “ardent backer” at all, I didn’t even own Garcia in any league the last two years, but I think your logic falls apart in a couple of places.

    It seems the crux of your entire argument based on a perception that he will be overvalued next year? I thought these articles were just ranking players, and not factoring in “cost to keep”? Each league has their own cost structure so that seems a tough line to lay. And the comment about ADP or auction cost is irrelevant to a KEEPER decision.

    Second, more importantly, on this statement: “Garcia is the type of pitcher who turns good rotations into great rotations, but not if he’s your best or second best pitcher. I just don’t see him as being integral enough to anyone’s pitching staff to be worth keeping.”

    …. how does that not apply equally to TED LILLY (!!), Vance Worley, etc.? I mean, jeeez, you were at Tier FIVE. I think, by definition, once you are at the fifth tier you are not talking about any “integral” pieces. That seems a pretty specious and arbitrary knock against Garcia vs. many of the other guys you ranked.

    compare Garcia to some of the other pitchers you had listed (2011 numbers):

    Garcia (age 24) – 13 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.31 K/9
    Worley (23) – 11 W, 3.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.13 K/9
    Marcum (29) – 13 W, 3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.09 K/9
    Lilly (35!!!) – 12 W, 3.96 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.38 K/9
    Zimmerman (25) – 8 W, 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.92 K/9
    D Hudson (24) – 16 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.85 K/9

    Really, the only knock against Garcia is his WHIP, but he has a better K-rate than many of the other pitchers (including Hudson and Zimm who were tiered above him) and his SwStr% was 10% in 2010 and 10.5% in 2011. Compare that to, say, Worley who had only a 5.5% SwStr (!!).

    Basically, with his improving control and good SwStr% there is good reason to believe Garcia’s strikeouts will rise and his WHIP will come down a bit as the .318 BABIP in 2011 comes down to earth.

    I still don’t see how in a KEEPER discussion it is defensible to put him behind guys like Ted Lilly or Vance Worley, two of the most egregious choices.

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    • Dan Wade says:

      If you don’t think value is part of a keeper decision, either you play in a league or leagues that have interesting keeper rules in terms of no penalties for keeping — totally possible — or you’re making really bad keeper decisions.

      As I mentioned below, Lilly’s ranking was more an endorsement of him than it was a knock against Garcia, but I do believe he’s a better pitcher than Garcia is, apparently you don’t. That’s fine.

      Nothing over Garcia’s last two seasons makes me think his strikeouts are going to jump up soon. Swinging strikes are great, but they’re only part of the equation. His best full season K-rate is 8.5, split between Double- and Triple-A, prior to his TJ surgery. He’s about a 7 K/9 guy, anything you see beyond that is wishcasting.

      Age works in his favor, but only if he’s showing signs of change/growth. In Garcia, I see a good 3-4 starter, but I don’t see him changing much from here.

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      • Blue says:

        You’ve got absolutely no evidence–none–that backs up the statement Lilly is a better pitcher than Garcia. It’s even more egrigious when you consider that Lilly is almost certainly valued at a higher level than Garcia for keeper purposes.

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  2. batpig says:

    …. and since we are talking about logic, can you please address Mat Latos’ placement low in Tier 4?

    it seems there is a great logical inconsistency here as many of the arguments that you posit against Garcia would support Latos being much higher. He has a great K-rate, he is young, and you yourself commented that he would likely be UNDERvalued next year… if you are going to ding Garcia for being overvalued, how on earth does a 23-year-old stud like Latos with a career 3.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.65 K/9 rank behind Garza, Zimmerman, either Hudson, etc.?

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    • Dan Wade says:

      Ranking within tiers was difficult across the board, but especially in that tier, where a lot of the finer work is projection on young arms. Latos’ first half of 2011 was bad enough to give me pause, since there’s no way to know if it was a momentary glitch or something more serious.

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  3. Blue says:

    What you aren’t taking into account is Garcia’s miniscule home run rate.

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    • Dan Wade says:

      If it wasn’t so small, he’d be almost unplayable. As it is, he’s a midlevel starter with a 3.2ish ERA +/- 0.5 runs based on BABIP.

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      • Blue says:

        Wins and ERA. One would think that Fangraphs authors would be beyond that.

        Look, just admit you made a mistake. You forgot Garcia, had a brain fart, whatever, it happens.

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  4. cs3 says:

    Appreciate the time you took to respond to the Garcia omision, but your reasoning does not make sense.

    There is simply no way to defend Lilly over Garcia for example.

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    • Dan Wade says:

      It’s more an endorsement of Lilly, who I think will be an asset again next year, than an indictment of Garcia. But just for fun:

      Lilly’s second half: 2.94 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
      Garcia’s second half: 4.07 ERA, 1.422 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

      Small sample, I know, but which one would you rather have in the fantasy playoffs? With weird half-season splits, Lilly needs to show more consistency within seasons, but he’s still a better pitcher than Garcia is.

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  5. Alex says:

    What’s all this talk about ted lilly being better than jaime garcia? Ted Lilly’s groundball rate is disgustingly low, his babip is too low, and he gives up waaayyyy too many homeruns.

    On the other hand, Garcia had a tim hudson-esque ground ball rate, a walk per nine below 2.5, an unlucky babip, an extremely unlucky strand rate, and didnt give up many homeruns.

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