Kendrys Morales: What to Expect in 2013
Kendrys Morales completed his first full season since fracturing his tibia in late May 2010. His injuries were not an issue in 2012, but his playing time was limited because he shared time at 1B and DH with Mark Trumbo and Albert Pujols. Morales current talent level is a bit uncertain and his playing time is even more up in the air.
The 29-year-old switch hitter hit decent in 2012 and was the 23rd highest ranked 1B last season. Here is how his AVG, HR, and SB numbers compare over his last 3 seasons.
| Year | PA | AVG | HR | SB |
| 2009 | 622 | 0.306 | 34 | 3 |
| 2010 | 211 | 0.290 | 11 | 0 |
| 2012 | 522 | 0.273 | 22 | 0 |
He has no speed and I would never expect a SB from him.
The HR numbers are all over the place, but so are the plate appearances. I took the HR and prorated them each year to 600 PAs.
Year: HRs
2009: 33
2010: 31
2011: 25
He was able to maintain a somewhat consistent, though declining, HR production.
His FB power has been the consistent part of the equation:
| Year | HR/FB | HR&FB Distance |
| 2009 | 18% | 295 ft |
| 2010 | 22% | 288 ft |
| 2012 | 21% | 287 ft |
The biggest change has been a decline in FB% from 41% to 28% from 2009 to 2012 and his GB% going from 42% to 51% over the same time frame.
Without a change in his FB%, he will max out at around 25 HRs if he gets a full season of PAs.
His AVG did drop 25 points from a 0.300 AVG in 2009-2010 to 0.275 last season. I would love to take the easy road and say that he was unlucky with his BABIP, but it remained about the same.
The cause for the drop in AVG was a 7.5% point jump in K% (14.7% to 22.2%). His entire plate discipline values worsened. Here are his swing and contact values for 2012 compared to his career averages:
| Plate Disipline | 2012 | Career |
| O-Swing% | 36% | 34% |
| Z-Swing% | 70% | 67% |
| O-Contact% | 62% | 64% |
| Z-Contact% | 86% | 88% |
| SwStr% | 12% | 10% |
In every category, he degraded. He swings at more pitches and makes contact less of the time. If his AVG is to get back to the .300 level, he will need to get the K% below 20%.
The biggest issue for Morales going forward for 2013 is playing time. The Angels have Pujols who will be playing everyday at 1B or DH if healthy. Morales is only a 1B or DH so he will have the other spot. The problem is that the Angels will want Mark Trumbo also in the lineup. The experiment of playing him at 3B failed, so he ended up at 1B, DH and one of the corner OF positions. Trumbo may be in the OF with Trout and Wells, or he could be competing at 1B and DH with Morales.
Besides Trumbo taking away time, Morales could lose starts at DH if another player on the Angels needs to DH because of an injury. Tracking Morales’s playing time will be key to his value.
If given 600 PAs in 2013, Morales should hit around 0.275 with 25 HRs. These value are down from his pre-injury numbers because of an increasing K% and declining FB%. The biggest key for Morales’ value in 2013 is the amount of playing time he accumulates in 2013.
Might he be trade bait for pitching?
This article is terrible, barely scratching the surface. The guy was coming off a debilitating injury and had been away from the game for nearly 2 years and you act like its best to just break down the numbers, pro-rated, linearly. Maybe try looking at some splits once in a while, his power production surged the last two months. You haven’t even asked the right questions needed to find the answer.
Also perhaps his strikeout and plate discipline rates were worse because he was trying to make the most of whatever appearances he got. If he’s not worried about a starting position, I think the aforementioned rates get closer to where they were pre-injury, though of course that’s all speculation, but I think it’s more accurate to say that than he’s simply a worse player now, even though as you stated, he had a butt load of time off, needed serious re-adjustment time anyway, PLUS he didn’t have guaranteed playing time. Give the guy a break!
Splits became little more muddled and
Just looking at halves of the season, he went from:
.289/.327/.431 8 HRs to .256/.313/.504 14 HRs, less AVG, more HRs
Looking at his monthly data, he had a terrible Apr and May, but his HR/FB values were fairly constant:
A:6%
M: 18%
J: 27%
J: 20%
A: 26%
S: 27%
In the first half of the season, his FB&HR batted ball distance was 273 ft and it jump to 301 in the 2nd half.
The problem is that his AVG took a dive because of the HR. Is he a 0.300 hitter with 15 HRs or a 0.250 with 30 HRs or somewhere in between. I am guessing he will be inbetween.
i;m totally being a hypocrite with this but.. is there a reason you put two “Tumbo’s” at the end of the article?
I would expect discipline to decline after having missed so much time due to injury, he probably hadn’t seen major league caliber pitching during his rehab, so that’s easily explained away, it could also prove to be a decent explanation for why his FB% dipped so low in 2012. I think getting him more playing time is the best prescription for him.
Seems like the LAA situation will keep his PA suppressed again in ’13. Of the three 1B/DH candidates, he’s the best trade candidate, but will LAA be able to get sufficient value given his risk profile? I wonder what level of return DiPoto thinks he could get? Maybe the Orioles and Angels can work a deal depending on the Reynolds’ contract option.
Personally I wouldn’t mind if the Indians traded Choo and Perez for Bourjos and Morales, I think that would be a relatively fair deal if the Angels tossed in a AAA pitcher with middling upside as well.
I HEARD ALOT OF TALK ABOUT MORALES…HE IS A MONSTER OF A HITTER. HE JUST HAD TOO MUCH TIME OFF AND NEEDED TO GET BACK ON TRACK. TRADING HIM WOULD BE A BAD MOVE. ANGELS NEED PLAYERS LIKE HIM!!
Kendrys was a monster of a hitter pre-injury. It was a serious injury and he was not able to return in the time frame anticipated. Ankles can be tricky and impact athletic performance for years to come. Once Kendrys returned to action last year, the chemistry on the Angels’ team was on tilt with too many players and not enough positions. The whole team struggled to adjust in early 2012, including Morales. He also came back overweight and a bit out of shape. He is expected to lose weight prior to showing up for training camp this year. Lots of context in which to place his 2012 performance. With the Hunter trade opening RF for Trumbo, the stars should re-align, and I expect Kendrys to return to full time DH and better form in 2013.