Kicking Rocks: Cutting Bait
“Don’t take your love away from me
Don’t you leave my heart in misery
If you go then I’ll be blue
‘Cause breaking up his hard to do.”
It plays over and over in my head every time I look at a roster that includes the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla and Joe Mauer. Aggravataing? Yes. Both the song and the lack of production. But what’s really aggravating is that question that keeps popping into your head as well, “How long do I stick with this guy?“
The phrase is called “cutting bait” and it’s literally the hardest thing to do in fantasy baseball. After all, you drafted these guys pretty high and their expected levels of production were an integral part of your strategy. But here we are, less than two weeks away from the All Star Break and their production levels are still just the equivalent of stepping in a pile of dog crap. They’re nothing more than marquee names taking up valuable roster space as you spend countless hours revamping a roster that their lack of performance has subsequently ruined.
You can’t trade them because you’ll never get full value. Whether it’s a keeper league or a re-draft league, you’ve probably received some of the most underwhelming, borderline insulting, trade proposals and you just can’t bring yourself to agree to any of them. Not only do you believe that you’re getting the raw end by giving up the best player in the deal, but the fear of an immediate turnaround and watching said player produce like a monster for some other guy’s team actually makes you sick to your stomach.
You don’t want to just cut the guy either. You’ll get nothing in return but the likelihood of watching one of your competitors pick him up for the price of dropping Jack Wilson. That, of course, then leads to the aforementioned turnaround that prompts your acid reflux to kick in.
So what to do? Will these guys ever put it together this season or has it been a complete waste of a fairly high draft pick? How many times are you going to cite Mauer’s injuries and purport him as a great, second half, comeback player? How many times are you going to mention Uggla’s .189 BABIP and say that a turnaround is just a few hits away? It’s getting old, isn’t it? Frustrating too.
Hard to say, really, on what to do. Depends on who you’re talking about. For the most part, when it comes to players like this, you just have to sit and take it. Stick them on your bench, lose the roster spot and hope for the best. How do you give up Dunn’s power potential and possibly miss out on 20 HR after the All Star Break? How do you dismiss the overall talents of Hanley? You can’t and you don’t.
Now if we’re talking about guys with injuries that are preventing them from doing their job, then I say you take whatever you can get in a deal and move on. In a re-draft league, Mauer isn’t doing diddly for you in the second half. Maybe you’ll get a decent average out of him, but probably not much else. Same with Justin Morneau. You could probably get as much out of Derrek Lee as you could Morneau, and Lee is probably available on your waiver wire. Even a youngster like Pedro Alvarez. There’s no guarantee that he’ll ever develop the way some people thought and this nagging quad injury is probably just the tip of the iceberg. If it’s a keeper league, you’ll probably be able to net a little more in a deal for one of these guys. Probably not too much more at this point, but maybe a little more. Either way, take what you can get.
If we’re talking guys like Uggla, Casey McGehee, or even a Delmon Young — you know, borderline guys — then it’s definitely time to call it quits. Cut bait, trade them, whatever you have to do to rid then from your roster. You’ve probably already replaced them in your starting lineup and are just staring at them on your bench preventing you from making more efficient pick-ups for your team. Say goodnight, Gracie.
Pitchers? Same thing. With the abundance of starting pitching out there for trades or pick-up, I’m sure you can find yourself a reasonable 2-for-1 deal for Zack Greinke. If not that, then a straight up trade and a supplemental guy from your waiver wire, but why suffer any longer?
Nobody likes having to make those tough decisions, but at this point in time, it’s a must. Tolerate your under-performing superstars like Dunn, Hanley and Ryan Zimmerman and hope for the best. It’s all you can do. For the rest of the lot, be proactive. Get rid of them. Drop them, trade them, do what you have to do, but, in the immortal words of the James Gang, “just turn your pretty head and walk away.”
What about Choo, worth stashing him for the playoff run?
I’m stashing him. Hoping that he’ll take this whole “saving face” to another level come late August/early September.
I’m holding on to Choo, but I’m in a keeper league. I say if you’re not in a keeper league then drop Choo. He might be back for a playoff run, but since he suffered a broken thumb, he’ll more than likely have trouble with his grip once he returns. He’ll also need a few weeks to get his timing back. It’s a shame he got hurt cause he was starting to come around the weeks before his injury.
I had Hanley, Mauer and Dunn on my roster. Fortunately, I was able to offload Dunn (with Sabathia) for Teixeira. At the time it looked mighty risky. But Dunn hasn’t done anything to make me regret it.
To play the counter here, hold Greinke. His WHIP is 1.25 – equal to last season’s rate – is lower than his career average as well as the MLB average. Additionally, he is striking out nearly 30% of batters faced; in 2009, he struck out 26.5%. Strand rate in the mid 50s, HR/FB and LD rates that are way out of career norms… get him. At all costs.
“Why suffer any longer” with Greinke? Because he’s actually pitching very well this year. Look beneath the surface — I won’t recap all the points Chris Cwik makes in this FG post today, but Greinke’s problems have stemmed chiefly from a high BABIP against.
Of course, as a Hanley owner, I would welcome some similar consolation about his problems.
Howard, thanks for this. Where would you categorize Werth? Probably not tolerable but certainly tradeable at a (steep) discount?
Definitely tradeable, at the obvious discount. I’ve never been a fan of his.
Surprised to see Zack Greinke on that list. If he wasn’t on my roster, I’d be looking at him as a decent buy-low. His first few crappy starts were basically spring training. Since then, he’s dealt with bad luck and sub-par defense.
Greinke does look like a great buy-low candidate right now, but at what point do you stop using bad luck and crappy defense as an excuse? The Brewers aren’t making any dramatic changes to improve their defense, are they? Sure, his strikeout totals are great — a move to the NL will do that for plenty of solid AL pitchers, but I’m not hanging my hat on “his bad luck will change”. I’d rather deal him to someone who has high hopes and is willing to pay for them.
C’mon, man, he’s last in MLB in LOB% for pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings, and he’s fourth worst in MLB for BABIP (.349). Those rates are Charlie Morton in 2010 bad, both in rankings and their rates. Meanwhile, Greinke’s WHIP this year is 1.25, and his ERA is 5.63. Morton, 2010? 1.73 WHIP, 7.57 ERA. Liriano had a 1.26 WHIP and 3.62 ERA last year with a .331 BABIP and 73% strand rate. Edwin Jackson’s BABIP is .347 and his WHIP is 1.48, his strand rate is 72%, and his ERA is 4.13. Also in Greinke’s favor, no pitcher in the last five years has come close to pitching at least 100 innings in a season while maintaining a BABIP of .349 AND a LOB% of 55. All that have come even within ten points of his strand rate with a similarly bad BABIP have had WHIPs typically in the 1.7 range with ERAs well over 6.
You can’t trade Greinke for anyone that will match his upside at this time. You’ve built a narrative and are sticking to it, admit it.
I admit nothing. In fact, I just traded him for Yuniesky Betancourt and an autographed Sid Bream baseball card.
Ha! Publicize that enough and you’ll get free lunch when you visit Atlanta, I am sure.
To pile on, Fausto Carmona has a BABIP that is 61 points better than Greinke’s, and a LOB% that is three points better. Carmona’s WHIP/ERA?
1.42/5.89
Greinke beats him in both categories.
Carmona, FIP/xFIP: 4.80/3.97
Greinke, FIP, xFIP: 2.72/2.12
Shaun Marcum has a BABIP of .258 and is outperforming his FIP. Gallardo is closest in BABIP, with a .317 mark, and sports a 3.92/3.67 ERA/FIP. Randy Wolf has a .277 BABIP, with ERA/FIP marks of 3.20/4.07.
If other Brewers pitchers are approximating or beating their FIP, why is Greinke an exception?
Don’t make me start saying mean things about Greinke now…..
His teammates hate him and purposefully play bad defense behind him. Obviously.
re: Abscess
I’d say look at GB rates.
Most of the other Brewers starters are FB pitchers (or have been) and Greinke I think is the best at getting GB out of all of them. Curse of the Yuni-corn