Comments on: Kicking Rocks: Cutting Bait

By: Dexter Bobo

Dexter Bobo — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 19:51:36 +0000

His teammates hate him and purposefully play bad defense behind him. Obviously.

By: Just Jim

Just Jim — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 22:48:46 +0000

I’m holding on to Choo, but I’m in a keeper league. I say if you’re not in a keeper league then drop Choo. He might be back for a playoff run, but since he suffered a broken thumb, he’ll more than likely have trouble with his grip once he returns. He’ll also need a few weeks to get his timing back. It’s a shame he got hurt cause he was starting to come around the weeks before his injury.

By: lexomatic

lexomatic — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 21:25:23 +0000

re: Abscess
I’d say look at GB rates.
Most of the other Brewers starters are FB pitchers (or have been) and Greinke I think is the best at getting GB out of all of them. Curse of the Yuni-corn

By: Howard Bender

Howard Bender — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 19:00:45 +0000

Don’t make me start saying mean things about Greinke now…..

By: Feeding the Abscess

Feeding the Abscess — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 18:52:34 +0000

Shaun Marcum has a BABIP of .258 and is outperforming his FIP. Gallardo is closest in BABIP, with a .317 mark, and sports a 3.92/3.67 ERA/FIP. Randy Wolf has a .277 BABIP, with ERA/FIP marks of 3.20/4.07.

If other Brewers pitchers are approximating or beating their FIP, why is Greinke an exception?

By: Feeding the Abscess

Feeding the Abscess — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 18:46:32 +0000

Ha! Publicize that enough and you’ll get free lunch when you visit Atlanta, I am sure.

By: Howard Bender

Howard Bender — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 18:43:44 +0000

I admit nothing. In fact, I just traded him for Yuniesky Betancourt and an autographed Sid Bream baseball card.

By: Feeding the Abscess

Feeding the Abscess — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 18:40:32 +0000

To pile on, Fausto Carmona has a BABIP that is 61 points better than Greinke’s, and a LOB% that is three points better. Carmona’s WHIP/ERA?

1.42/5.89

Greinke beats him in both categories.

Carmona, FIP/xFIP: 4.80/3.97

Greinke, FIP, xFIP: 2.72/2.12

By: Feeding the Abscess

Feeding the Abscess — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 18:34:03 +0000

C’mon, man, he’s last in MLB in LOB% for pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings, and he’s fourth worst in MLB for BABIP (.349). Those rates are Charlie Morton in 2010 bad, both in rankings and their rates. Meanwhile, Greinke’s WHIP this year is 1.25, and his ERA is 5.63. Morton, 2010? 1.73 WHIP, 7.57 ERA. Liriano had a 1.26 WHIP and 3.62 ERA last year with a .331 BABIP and 73% strand rate. Edwin Jackson’s BABIP is .347 and his WHIP is 1.48, his strand rate is 72%, and his ERA is 4.13. Also in Greinke’s favor, no pitcher in the last five years has come close to pitching at least 100 innings in a season while maintaining a BABIP of .349 AND a LOB% of 55. All that have come even within ten points of his strand rate with a similarly bad BABIP have had WHIPs typically in the 1.7 range with ERAs well over 6.

You can’t trade Greinke for anyone that will match his upside at this time. You’ve built a narrative and are sticking to it, admit it.

By: Howard Bender

Howard Bender — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 17:08:43 +0000

Greinke does look like a great buy-low candidate right now, but at what point do you stop using bad luck and crappy defense as an excuse? The Brewers aren’t making any dramatic changes to improve their defense, are they? Sure, his strikeout totals are great — a move to the NL will do that for plenty of solid AL pitchers, but I’m not hanging my hat on “his bad luck will change”. I’d rather deal him to someone who has high hopes and is willing to pay for them.