Liriano and Peavy: Waiver Wire
Francisco Liriano (ESPN: 13 percent owned, Yahoo!: 37 percent owned)
I get the sense that if I were to go on a 2500 word rant about Liriano’s inconsistency and how frustrating it is to own a pitcher who can either make or break a rotation I’d probably find a fair amount of support in the comments. For sanity’s sake, I’ll save that for another time, but that doesn’t change the fact that Liriano’s last 8 weeks are the kind of puzzle that makes me want to swear off fantasy sports.
Spring Training stats aren’t indicative of the season to come — this we all know — but after a spring that showed promise, Liriano has completed inverted those numbers. Over 25 spring innings, Liriano walked just five hitters while striking out 33; he allowed not a single home run. He has made three starts so far this year, lasting a total of 11.1 innings, and has walked nine, struck out just eight, and allowed a pair of home runs. Even allowing for the increased level of competition, a 0.89 K/BB ratio is very, very bad. Control is obviously the biggest issue with Liriano right now, but it’s not trivial that his velocity looks like it’s sitting closer to the level he had in 2011, when he was worth 1 WAR, than it was in 2010 when he was worth 6 WAR.
If there’s any hope for Liriano, it’s that his velocity does appear to be trending up, albeit slowly. If he can get his fastball in the strike zone in the 93-94 range, it makes his slider and changeup that much better and gives him a chance to find something resembling usable form again. Staring long enough at his heat maps so far could give the impression that he’ not missing by that much and that a small adjustment would get him back in the strike zone, but I’m not buying in. Liriano is available in 87 percent of ESPN leagues and 63 percent of Yahoo! leagues and I expect that number to go up before it goes down. Leagues with a freakishly deep bench can stash Liriano and hope, but I’m skeptical he’s even worth that.
Jake Peavy (ESPN: 32 percent owned, Yahoo!: 50 percent owned)
Staying in the AL Central, but on the complete opposite end of the spectrum from Liriano is Peavy. Through three starts, Peavy has struck out almost 30 percent of the hitters he has faced while walking less than 3 percent. His velocity is up over last year and is now at the highest level since he came to the White Sox in 2009. The biggest change for Peavy is his health. After detaching his lat in 2010, Peavy was shaky in 2011, for reasons I can certainly understand. A lat detachment is not only a major injury; it is also a relatively rare one. Unlike something like a torn labrum or torn UCL, Peavy wasn’t able to point to a set of players who have successfully returned from a detached lat, something that may have made him a little more nervous about going all out shortly after his return.
I had the chance to see him in person Wednesday night against the Orioles and was suitably impressed. Peavy mixed his pitches well, generated 12 whiffs, and allowed very little hard contact. Endy Chavez’s double in the second inning was the hardest hit he allowed all night and at no point did it look like it was going to leave the yard. The hardest thing about Peavy’s outing was determining whether the numerous balls on the edge of the infield should be scored as pop-ups or shallow flyballs.
I’m always nervous about recommending White Sox’s pitchers for the same reason I give their marginal hitters the benefit of the doubt: They play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors. Peavy has only given up one home run so far, but with his flyball tendencies, it isn’t hard to see that rate rising rather rapidly during the warmer summer months. Even with that potential looming in the future, Peavy is worth rostering in all but the shallowest leagues. He seems to have his good offspeed pitches back and those will help him generate more than enough strikeouts to compensate for a small rise in his ERA.
Peavy allowing LDs and FBs at an all time high and GBs at an all time low. Concerning to me, concerning to you?
Definitely worth keeping an eye on, for sure. That BABIP might come up a few points, and the HR/FB rate is definitely going to climb.
If he remains an extreme flyball pitcher his BABIP will stay low.
As long as Peavy is healthy – and not facing the Rangers – is he a must-start guy regardless of league size? I can only think of perhaps 20 other guys I’d rather have on a per-game basis. Obviously he’s lower in most people’s overall SP rankings because the health has been so spotty, but on a per-game basis only I think he’s earned the right with these fantastic peripherals.
I’m treating Peavy as a guy i start on the road except against NYY, BOS, and TEX. I won’t start him at home except against SEA, maybe OAK, and some of the weaker NL interleague teams.
I worry about the HR rate of the Cell (regress Peavy HR/FB to the Cell’s typical numbers and he doesn’t look so good). His velocity is good, and he has been striking guys out, but the homers and fewer grounders make me a little more leery of everyday starting him.
In the follies of my youth when I first started playing roto and didn’t know too much about FIP, xFIP, Heat Maps, and BABIP, I would have continued to hang on to a guy like Liriano and hoped for a turn around… While he single handedly blew up my ratios or just ate up a roster spot – even if it was on the bench. I did it too many times and one glaring example was Bartolo Colon in 2004 when he sported a 6.38 first half ERA and a 3.63 second half. Like Colon in ’04- I’m SURE Liriano will finish the season with an ERA under 10… But he could also finish the season with an ERA around 5, and why wait to find out? My advice to anyone who owns him is to cut your losses now – admit you were wrong and swallow your pride. Early in the season, there are too many hidden gems on the waiver wire who will fly off the board between now and the end of April, and if you miss out – you could be stuck with dead weight on your roster. I benched Liriano after his 2nd start this season and after the results of his 3rd start, I cut him for Kyle Drabek… Liriano’s weighted ERA impact to my team, while a horrible 10.0, by season’s end will only be worth 9 innings. Not 180 with an ERA of 5.
Liriano: filthy swing-and-miss stuff, ugly peripherals thru 11 IP, .455 BABIP, people freaking out.
Brandon Morrow: filthy swing-and-miss stuff, ugly peripherals thru 20 IP, .158 BABIP, people NOT freaking out.
You really expect Liriano to be a free agent in more than 87% of leagues? So you think more than 87% of leagues are comprised entirely of people who overreact to small sample sizes? Liriano = inconsistent and that’s how he’s been his whole career.
Two of Liriano’s last three seasons have been absolutely terrible, which reduced velocity and diminished command and control. Guess what? He has reduced velocity again this season, with diminished command and control.
It’s not a small sample size, it’s been the norm for years now.
Fastball speed, since 2006:
2006: 94.7
2008: 90.9
2009: 91.7
2010: 93.7
2011: 91.8
2012: 91.8
First strike %, since 2006:
2006: 60.5
2008: 48.9
2009: 55.3
2010: 61.7
2011: 49.4
2012: 42.9
This isn’t rocket science. If he isn’t throwing strikes and hitting 94 consistently, he’s worthless. If he could throw strikes at 92 he may be decent, but he’s never done that.
In his last start, Liriano averaged 93 MPH, which is a significant jump from the previous start when he averaged just 91.2. Though the results obviously didn’t follow, it’s highly encouraging that his velocity rebounded.
Exactly. For whatever reason, he’s gotten old really fast, or at least his skills have gone downhill faster than anyone expected. Still, when he’s on he’s filthy. He will have multiple double-digit K games this year, and multiple double-digit runs allowed games. Same as Morrow, Bud Norris, and Rich Harden of old. Liriano’s just happened to have his crap games in the first two weeks.
Morrow’s velocity is down somewhat and he isn’t getting swinging strikes this year. People actually should be a bit more concerned.
Maybe it’s time for Liriano to go back to the bullpen?
im dumb, you are smart, this guy or sale? this guy or niese? this guy or lilly?
It’s no surprise here in Minnesota. It’s common knowledge that Liriano is a head case with no hope. It does not help that the Twins philosophy of pitch to contact ruined him and his confidence. Both Anderson and Gardenhire are pretty much hated around these parts.
Yeah it’s pretty questionable. If they want pitch to contact fodders they should have traded for Trevor Cahill and Josh Tomlin. Why have a guy like Liriano with his stuff but only encourage him to “pitch to contact”
Given his injury history, and the inevitable upswing in HR/FB, should Peavy be considered a “sell high” candidate? Or is he really capable of continuing this for ~160 or so more innings this year?
It’s not worth trading him. Nobody will give you anywhere near equal production for him.
Liriano’s been throwing his two seam fastball way too much. In spring training he got ahead of batters, and was way more consistent when using his four seam fastball. If he would start using that again he should be much more efficient.