Looking back at 2013 shortstop ADPs

If you drafted a shortstop early this year, chances are you’re looking back and you’re pretty disappointed. That’s because very few of those shortstops drafted as starters in a 12-team league returned positive value relative to their draft positions.

This analysis will use Yahoo’s Average Draft Positions (ADP), and while a lot of people also play in auction leagues, it stands to reason that ADP and auction dollars would be tightly correlated. And of course, comparing ADP to actual value rank perhaps isn’t fair since the context of the rest of a person’s draft is required, but it should still be a good approximation of the majority.

Anyway, with the exception of perhaps Ian Desmond, nobody walked away happy with where they got their starting shortstop, it seems. There were some values to be found by waiting until backup shortstops (or MI positions) were being drafted, and those who jumped early due to positional scarcity weren’t really rewarded.

The table below shows shortstops listed by Yahoo ADP and includes their value rank, the gap and their standard value score, provided by Baseball Monster. The standard score is BM’s means of a catch-all value statistic, and it uses a standardized scores method.

Name Yahoo ADP Rank DIFF Standard Score
Troy Tulowitzki 17 42 -25 0.31
Hanley Ramirez 29 57 -29 0.11
Jose Reyes 30 121 -91 -0.46
Starlin Castro 44 189 -145 -0.93
Ian Desmond 70 30 40 0.52
Ben Zobrist 70 81 -11 -0.11
Elvis Andrus 72 51 21 0.21
Jimmy Rollins 80 155 -75 -0.75
Martin Prado 96 88 8 -0.19
Asdrubal Cabrera 102 133 -31 -0.56
Alcides Escobar 181 160 21 -0.77
Erick Aybar 183 125 58 -0.48
J.J. Hardy 190 64 126 0.02
Marco Scutaro 199 159 40 -0.77
Josh Rutledge 204 233 -29 -1.17
Everth Cabrera 218 95 123 -0.24
Yunel Escobar 234 136 98 -0.60
Jhonny Peralta 235 111 124 -0.38
Mike Aviles 238 152 86 -0.74
Alexei Ramirez 238 71 167 -0.02
Jed Lowrie 240 83 157 -0.15
Andrelton Simmons 244 122 122 -0.46
Stephen Drew 260 137 123 -0.62
Zack Cozart 262 135 127 -0.58
Jean Segura 268 23 245 0.65

If you drafted Ian Desmond as the fifth shortstop off the board or waited on an Alexei Ramirez type or stashed Jean Segura, you’re probably doing fairly well right now.

Presented another way, here is the table sorted by overall rank, with the same columns shown.

Name Yahoo ADP Rank DIFF Standard Score
Jean Segura 268 23 245 0.65
Ian Desmond 70 30 40 0.52
Troy Tulowitzki 17 42 -25 0.31
Elvis Andrus 72 51 21 0.21
Hanley Ramirez 29 57 -29 0.11
J.J. Hardy 190 64 126 0.02
Alexei Ramirez 238 71 167 -0.02
Ben Zobrist 70 81 -11 -0.11
Jed Lowrie 240 83 157 -0.15
Martin Prado 96 88 8 -0.19
Everth Cabrera 218 95 123 -0.24
Brian Dozier UND 107   -0.36
Jhonny Peralta 235 111 124 -0.38
Jose Reyes 30 121 -91 -0.46
Andrelton Simmons 244 122 122 -0.46
Erick Aybar 183 125 58 -0.48
Asdrubal Cabrera 102 133 -31 -0.56
Zack Cozart 262 135 127 -0.58
Yunel Escobar 234 136 98 -0.60
Stephen Drew 260 137 123 -0.62
Mike Aviles 238 152 86 -0.74
Jimmy Rollins 80 155 -75 -0.75
Marco Scutaro 199 159 40 -0.77
Alcides Escobar 181 160 21 -0.77
Starlin Castro 44 189 -145 -0.93
Jose Iglesias UND 190   -0.93
Brandon Crawford UND 192   -0.93
Pedro Florimon UND 196   -0.96
Eric Sogard UND 210   -1.05
Daniel Descalso UND 222   -1.13
Nick Franklin UND 226   -1.14
Brad Miller UND 227   -1.14
Didi Gregorius UND 228   -1.14
Josh Rutledge 204 233 -29 -1.17

It shouldn’t be surprising that Segura was the best value, going undrafted in some leagues but ranking as the top shortstop at present. Those who took Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki probably aren’t too disappointed, either, as those owners probably assumed some injury time.

Elvis Andrus kindly displays how you don’t need to be any good to have fantasy value, and J.J. Hardy and Alexei Ramirez demonstrate that the unsexy names you know can really help out.

So, was 2013 just an extraordinarily tough year to evaluate shortstops? It actually appears to at least be a three-year trend that the top-drafted shortstops struggle to return value. Some of this is due to injuries, and perhaps it’s apparent at all positions, but it’s worth keeping in mind for next year.

Name Y!/MDC ADP Rank DIFF
2011 Hanley Ramirez 2 141 -139
2011 Troy Tulowitzki 4 19 -15
2012 Troy Tulowitzki 5 243 -238
2013 Troy Tulowitzki 17 42 -25
2012 Jose Reyes 20 33 -13
2012 Hanley Ramirez 22 44 -22
2011 Jose Reyes 25 20 5
2013 Hanley Ramirez 29 57 -29
2013 Jose Reyes 30 121 -91
2012 Starlin Castro 40 49 -9
2011 Jimmy Rollins 43 46 -3
2013 Starlin Castro 44 189 -145
2012 Elvis Andrus 47 80 -33
2011 Derek Jeter 53 75 -22
2013 Ian Desmond 70 30 40
2013 Ben Zobrist 70 81 -11
2012 Asdrubal Cabrera 71 106 -35
2013 Elvis Andrus 72 51 21
2011 Elvis Andrus 75 43 32
2012 Jimmy Rollins 78 28 50
2013 Jimmy Rollins 80 155 -75
2011 Alexei Ramirez 81 84 -3
2013 Martin Prado 96 88 8
2013 Asdrubal Cabrera 102 133 -31
2011 Stephen Drew 112 218 -106
2012 Derek Jeter 113 31 82
2012 J.J. Hardy 135 122 13
2012 Alexei Ramirez 141 115 26
2012 Dee Gordon 141 222 -81
2011 Rafael Furcal 143 253 -110
2011 Starlin Castro 153 36 117
2012 Erick Aybar 163 116 47
2011 Ian Desmond 168 117 51
2011 Asdrubal Cabrera 180 29 151
2013 Alcides Escobar 181 160 21
2013 Erick Aybar 183 125 58
Positive Negative
Top-50 1 12
Top-100 6 17
Top-12 SS 15 21

The position is definitely a scarce one, but a lot of the value comes from late picks. The top names will always remain valuable because when healthy, they’re so much better than the rest of the lot.

But it seems pretty clear that the strategy for 2014 should be to wait beyond the top-100 picks for your shortstop unless you’re really enticed by a top name. This might even hold truer in 2014 with how the depth at the position has improved with some young additions later in the year.



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Blake Murphy is a freelance sportswriter based out of Toronto. Formerly of the Score, he's the managing editor at Raptors Republic and frequently pops up at Sportsnet, Vice, and around here. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.


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attgig
Member
attgig

“The top names will always remain valuable because when healthy, they’re so much better than the rest of the lot.”

except, of course…my keeper from this years draft… Starlin Castro. Where does he get drafted next year?

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