You have to related a specific player’s skillset, in this case Ruggiano’s skillset, to the probability of that player being able to hit for a higher GB avg than the rest of the league (or you could use BABIP which should correlate well). In Ruggiano’s specific case, we know he is an above average speed guy so while there may be some regression you should really compare his numbers to other similar players if you want to know how much that number may regress.

]]>Based on his career stats, given 500 ABs he can surely be a 15-15 guy with a little upside to that. Consistently higher than league average BABIP, although .400 is obviously unsustainably high. BA of .270 doesn’t seem out of reach.

]]>