MASH (12/9/2013) – Starting Pitcher DL Chances

Besides the 2014 starting pitcher disabled list (DL) predictions, have a few notes on some players.

• A few weeks ago I re-examined my 2013 starting pitcher DL predictions. The results were dead on as usual. For the 2014 predictions, I have put them in a spreadsheet for everyone to complain about. The main DL percentage chance is based off of age, MLB experience and past injuries.  Additionally, I have added an indication if the player has any other injury inducing traits like heavy breaking ball usage and the inability to throw strikes. While the entire list is available on the spreadsheet, here are the 10 least likely pitchers to go on the DL who also have no other injury indicators.

Name DL Chance
Rick Porcello 27.6%
Clayton Kershaw 28.0%
Mike Leake 29.0%
Mike Minor 29.8%
Patrick Corbin 30.0%
Julio Teheran 30.2%
Chris Sale 30.3%
Gio Gonzalez 30.4%
Shelby Miller 30.4%
Jose Quintana 30.6%

• Corey Hart has been “Cleared!” to begin baseball activities. Keep an eye on where he goes as he could be nice 2014 buy low canidate.

Johnny Cueto is “feeling 100 percent right now” and is wanting to pitch in the Caribbean this winter. I think he will still be injury risk until he takes away the twist in his rotation.

• A few injury risk assessment have been published recently. Jeff Sullivan here at FanGraphs and RK at MakeNoLittlePlans each wrote about Jacoby Ellsbury‘s injury risk. At my own blog,, I did quick look at Doug Fister‘s injury risk.

Possible Players on the DL to Start the 2014 Season

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

Minor League Report

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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

7 Responses to “MASH (12/9/2013) – Starting Pitcher DL Chances”

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  1. Jay29 says:

    Any recommendation as to how to incorporate the DL chances into projections for games started? For example, if Liriano has a 44.7% chance of hitting the DL, and thus missing at least 2 starts (15 days), it still doesn’t say anything about the length of any given DL stint.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I have and could fairly easily. Let me see what I could do. I will probably do an average and mean days lost.

      The one issue I have always thought of is if a pitcher has to get TJS in August. I would just show him with 30 days lost, but it would basically he 2 season.

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  2. d_i says:

    I appreciate what you’re doing here and the need to quantify for the clubs, but have you back tested your 2013 analysis? I’d be curious to know the correlation because my conjecture is that the error bars are probably large enough that the analysis doesn’t tell us much more than we would know based on intuition – certainly not accurate enough to use a decimal point.

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  3. Metsy says:

    What percentage is a good cutoff point? For example, stray away from anyone greater then a 40% probability?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I always take talent first.

      First, I use the DL numbers to break tie breakers if I have to decided between similar pitchers.

      Also, it helps with figuring out a bench. If 3 teams each have 8 starters, and here is each one’s average DL%

      Team 1: 30%
      Team 2: 40%
      Team 3: 50%

      Team 1 should expect to lose 2.5 starters, Team 2 is 3.2 starters and Team 3 is 4 starters. It helps me understand if I may need to pick up an additional hitter or pitcher.

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