MASH (7/24/14)

• In keeper leagues, it is time for the top teams to stabilize their teams with healthy players. This is an opportunity for teams buy low on know health risks. Take Jason Kipnis for example. he has been limited by an oblique injury all year. If a top team has him and you have healthy Ian Kinsler, look to trade for Kipnis. Most owners will do about anything for a win and will take the stability for this season and you get an upgrade for next season. Another player to target is Shin-Soo Choo who has had a bad ankle. Additionally, look over the HURT lists below for more injured players.

• Well, the Dodgers plan on pitching Josh Beckett even though he struggled in his last start (4 runs, 3 home runs in 3.2 innings). His indicators were similar to his previous 2014 values in velocity (see below) and Zone%. I still think he will make all his starts until the trade deadline (to see if the Dodgers need more pitching) and then he will be shut down. There is really no upside with him right now.

Michael Wacha may end up being useless in redraft leagues since his earliest possible return is in early September. Maybe he is be worth picking up for teams in head-to-head playoffs.

Yu Darvish gave an interview where he talks about the why baseball in Japan is conducive to less injuries. The part I found interesting is the differences the ball.

Q.So do you need to adopt to the environment, Strasburg was young but had TJ?

It’s not about adjusting period, I think pitching on 4 days rest is fine, there are a lot more banned substances compared to 10,20 years ago, I’m not saying they were using substances  but now a days you can’t even take cold medicine I think that may be a reason too. I don’t think that Matsuzaka,Tanaka, Wada, Fujikawa had damage to their ligaments in Japan, when they came over here they had medical checks so I don’t think they had any issues, so it developed after they came here. So why?  I think it’s the time between starts and heavier ball those kind of things.

Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion may rejoin the team with little to no notice. The team is talking about adding them with no rehab starts

Fastball Velocity Watch for Pitchers Returning From the DL

Cliff Lee‘s average fastball velocity is down a couple mph. I bet he is still hurt and I would not start him in all but the deepest of leagues.

Jon Niese‘s velocity is at 2014 levels, but not to previous season levels

Nick Vincent‘s velo is down about 3 mph from before the DL stint.

Josh Beckett‘s looks fine.

Nick Martinez’s is fine.

Nick Masset is also fine.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (introduction/explanation) :

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.


June and July 2014

• No surprises in the yearly data.

• When looking as the last couple months only, Allen Craig‘s name sticks out. Even though he struggled in the season’s first couple months, his ISO the last two month’s is .068. To see if he has turned his season around, watch his ISO graph for an upward turn.

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (introduction/explanation)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.

Comparing 2013 to 2014

Comparing April and May 2014 to June and July 2014

• On the 2013 to 2014 comparison, Josh Tomlin is one few starters still pitching near the list’s top. Looking at his numbers though, he is steadily improving after having Tommy Surgery last season. For example, his velocity is creeping back up.

I would not be surprised to see his PAIN drop as the season winds down.

• No name caught my interest until Johnny Cueto‘s at a 75 PAIN score. He has had a history of injuries so looked at why he was showing up. The main reason is his Zone% has drop from the season’s first half.

His owners probably didn’t expect what they got out of him so far this season. Anything else they get over the rest of the season is going to be gravy.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report


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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

19 Responses to “MASH (7/24/14)”

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  1. J says:

    Man this page is not device friendly. Takes forEVER to load and destroys every other browser screen opened. Any way to fix it?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I bet it is the tables and I have found them the best way to keep the article shorter in length.

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  2. atoms says:

    BTW, I’ve been thinking for a while that the PAIN acronym isn’t very suitable. It’s not about abuse per se, it’s about injury, right? And the fact that you’re making the word INdex cover the IN part of the acronym isn’t very clean, either.

    How about something like…. Pitcher Ailment Indication Number?

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  3. JBizzy says:

    I’m sure this is a stupid question, but where do the velocity charts come from? I can’t find them on here. I’m sorry for the silly question but I appreciate the assistance!

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  4. Cason Jolette says:

    Shallow 10 team league…

    Currently carrying too many DL’d players, would you consider dropping Marte or Myers in a redraft league?

    How soon do you think Marte could be back?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Concussions are mess to predict, Belt seems out for a while, but once declared good, they are immediately back.

      Without knowing too much about your league, I would drop Myers. When he comes back, he still may not be 100%.

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  5. AJP says:

    Given Ross’ success and no apparent injury, would you be concerned with his pain index?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      From my 7/3 MASH Report:

      On the 2013 to 2014 comparison, Tyson Ross is one of the few starters with a PAIN score over 100 not to go on the DL so far this season. His PAIN score is a little skewed because he would expect a velocity drop from 2013 when he was a reliever. The main issue I have with him is the 40% slider usage. Sliders increase a player’s chance of injury 10% points. With Ross’s past injuries, it will be interesting to see if he can make through the season.

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  6. Josh B says:

    Does an extreme negative HURT score tell us anything in particular about the player’s performance?

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  7. stonepie says:

    what’s up with chris davis? slump? oblique still bothering him? babip’d to death?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      The shift has really hurt his average and the oblique was an issue previously. I will look at him in detail in Monday’s report.

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  8. cmi0222 says:

    ROS, do you like Lance Lynn or Phil Hughes better fantasy-wise? And by how much? Know Hughes has better fip xfip #’s but last month or so his struggles concern me. Thanks.

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