MASH Report (10/17/13) – Batter Edition

For the first time ever in the history of MASH, it happens to be hitter only news. I will update four hitters on the mend and look at the end of season HURT rankings.

• The latest report has Manny Machado returning in 6 months (link)

Manny Machado will miss Spring Training and almost certainly be delayed to start the 2014 regular season, as the Orioles third baseman’s recovery timetable following Monday’s knee surgery is approximately six months.

Josh Reddick will under go surgery after playing through a broken wrist in 2013. Both his power and contact skills were down compared to previous seasons. He is supposed to be ready by spring training.

Michael Morse is having wrist surgery and will be out 6-8 weeks (link).

Doctors estimated that the outgrowth of the capitate bone that runs down through the hand was caused by trauma and probably occurred sometime in May, which likely affected his power and extension during his swing.

Morse, 31, had hit 11 homers and had 21 RBIs through May, but he hit just two more home runs and compiled a .165 average after June 1.

He struggled with a 5 year low in ISO (.167) and BABIP (.254). I could see him as a great buy low candidate. I don’t see a return to his 2011 levels where he hit 31 HR and had a .303 AVG. If he finds a full time gig, he will have value in all but the shallowest of leagues by hitting .280 with 20+ HRs.

Michael Bourn had minor hamstring surgery. He will be fully recovered in a month or two.

• Looking back at HURT

HURT was created to find players will the traits of injured players (less power, speed, and/or contact). Overall, the system worked great. On many occasions, players showed up in the rankings before an actual injury was reported. For example, Michael Morse never reported an injury all season until last week, but he had the 29th highest HURT value. While it seems to miss on some players, possibly Chris Johnson, it was on most of the time. The only big change I see for next season is to look at players at the intra-season level

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (top hitters with at least 50 PA in 2013 and at least 600 PA from 2010 to 2012 – complete list found here):

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

Name HURT ISO ISO_3Y_Proj ISO_Diff Contact Contact_Proj Contact_Diff PA_Season PA_Prev_3_Seasons
B.J. Upton 226 0.105 0.193 -0.088 67.0% 73.0% -6.0% 446 1883
Casper Wells 178 0.021 0.189 -0.168 66.0% 72.0% -6.0% 102 656
Jason Kubel 174 0.100 0.201 -0.101 70.0% 77.0% -7.0% 290 1554
Seth Smith 166 0.139 0.200 -0.061 76.0% 78.0% -2.0% 410 1372
Josh Willingham 157 0.159 0.233 -0.074 73.0% 76.0% -3.0% 471 1629
Albert Pujols 140 0.179 0.253 -0.074 83.0% 85.0% -2.0% 443 2021
Chris Johnson 133 0.136 0.157 -0.021 76.0% 76.0% 0.0% 547 1295
Lance Berkman 130 0.117 0.208 -0.091 77.0% 78.0% -1.0% 294 1165
Ryan Ludwick 127 0.085 0.179 -0.094 74.0% 75.0% -1.0% 140 1583
Paul Konerko 120 0.111 0.226 -0.115 82.0% 82.0% 0.0% 520 1868
Melky Cabrera 120 0.081 0.146 -0.065 88.0% 88.0% 0.0% 372 1716
Giancarlo Stanton 119 0.231 0.282 -0.051 68.0% 68.0% 0.0% 504 1498
Mark Kotsay 119 0.032 0.118 -0.086 83.0% 87.0% -4.0% 171 770
Starlin Castro 118 0.102 0.128 -0.026 82.0% 84.0% -2.0% 705 1912
Troy Tulowitzki 118 0.229 0.240 -0.011 84.0% 88.0% -4.0% 512 1338
Miguel Montero 118 0.114 0.170 -0.056 74.0% 77.0% -3.0% 475 1457
Chris Iannetta 118 0.148 0.174 -0.026 72.0% 75.0% -3.0% 399 902
Cesar Izturis 113 0.062 0.052 0.010 87.0% 90.0% -3.0% 142 719
Tyler Colvin 108 0.120 0.225 -0.105 74.0% 73.0% 1.0% 78 1069
Alex Presley 106 0.097 0.163 -0.066 84.0% 86.0% -2.0% 195 626
Matt Kemp 103 0.125 0.233 -0.108 68.0% 73.0% -5.0% 290 1806
Aramis Ramirez 102 0.178 0.219 -0.041 80.0% 81.0% -1.0% 351 1763
Robert Andino 101 0.053 0.092 -0.039 77.0% 82.0% -5.0% 85 1008
Mark Teixeira 100 0.189 0.232 -0.043 75.0% 84.0% -9.0% 63 1920

Possible Players on the DL to Start the 2014 Season

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

Minor League Report




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


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