MASH Report (11/19/13) – Starting Pitcher DL Projections Reviewed

Today I will check back on my 2013 Starting Pitcher DL Projections. Additionally I have injury updates on several players.

• Before last season, I projected the chances a starting pitcher would go on the DL given a formula I created a few season. I took into consideration age, previous MLB experience and past injuries. It is time to see how it did.

First, I removed pitchers who were not on a team in 2013 like Kevin Millwood and Randy Wolf. Next, I added the DL percentage chances for the remaining pitchers. The formula predicted 44.8 pitchers were DL bound. In reality, 44 went on the DL. I will take it. Additionally, I looked at the 20 most and least likely players to go on the DL. Of the twenty least likely, I predicted 6.2 to go on the DL and the actual number was five. Looking at the most likely candidates, I predicted 9.9 to go on the DL and nine actually went. Overall, the results were outstandinga and I will put out the 2014 prediction at a later date.

Dustin Pedroia‘s surgery went better than expected.

There was some speculation that Pedroia may need a more complicated surgery that would require ligament reattachment. The extensive version of the surgery could’ve cost Pedroia an extra few weeks of recovery time, but Cherington said the simpler version was performed.

“He’s out of surgery; it went well,” Cherington said. “He did not require the graft that would’ve been the more extensive procedure. It was the less complicated of the two possibilities, so that was good news.”

He is expected to be ready by opening day, but don’t be surprised if he misses a few weeks or plays through some early pain.

Stephen Strasburg pitched in pain during the 2013 season.

Stephen Strasburg pitched with discomfort in his forearm, the result of small bone chips in his right elbow, for a “good amount” of the 2013 season, his agent Scott Boras said yesterday at the GM Meetings.

“He was dealing with some stress in the forearm and such from it,” Boras said. “Certainly, each performance, it was something he had to deal with for a few days after.”

Good and bad news here. Good – His elbow should feel better. Bad – Nothing predicts future injuries better than past injuries.

Yu Darvish‘s back is still bothering him.

Darvish was dealing with inflammation in a nerve in the area over the final six weeks of the season. He was given an anti-inflammatory injection once the season was over, and the Rangers don’t expect the problem to linger into next year. Darvish will be re-evaluated this week to see exactly where he stands in his recovery.

Darvish’s strength and endurance were affected by the nerve problem and he was 1-4 with a 3.38 ERA in his last nine starts. The Rangers went 3-6 in those starts but Darvish didn’t want to come out of the rotation while his team was fighting for a spot in the playoffs. The Rangers won his last three starts, but Darvish didn’t complete six innings in any of them.

I know it is tough to sell high on a player, but if an acceptable off comes across for Darvish, I would look at taking it.

Miguel Cabrera‘s rehab is going great.

“Every day I try to get better as a hitter, I try to get more consistent,” he said. “I try to always learn something every day to get more comfortable at home plate. I think you have to work hard every day, and that’s my goal.”

So far so good.

Albert Pujols says his foot is healthy.

“I feel really happy,” Pujols said in Spanish while on the show “Grandes en los Deportes” on Tuesday. “Last year … it was a really tough year for me physically, in terms of recovering. But now I feel really good, really excellent. With the foot, I feel 99.9 percent healthy. And with my knee, I’m doing my rehab like always. That’s something where you have to keep doing therapy so that something small doesn’t become something bigger.”

Now I would like to hear about the knee feeling great.

Derek Jeter feels good.

• Several People are wondering if CC Sabathia‘s velocity loss and dominance may be from his weight loss. I think he is damned if does or damned if he don’t in regard to the weight loss. The weight was killing his knees, but he as pitched worse since losing it. Personally,  I think age (33-years-old) and innings (200 IP or more thrown the past 7 seasons) are just catching up with him.

Vinnie Pestano was dealing with injury issues while struggling through the 2013 season. Cleveland will need a closer and he is in the running.

• A couple Mariner pitchers have an injury update. Top prospect Danny Hultzen will be out for the entire 2014 season. Also, it looks like Stephen Pryor may miss the start of the season.

• Two top Twins prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, were shutdown in the AFL for minor injuries. Both are supposed to be ready for the season’s start.

Welington Castillo had surgery on his knee to repair a meniscus tear. He should be ready for Spring Training.

• The Dodgers Onelki Garcia had his elbow cleaned up.

Ted Lilly wants to pitch so bad, he had his neck nerves cauterized. Ted, it is fine to retire.

Possible Players on the DL to Start the 2014 Season

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

Minor League Report




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


5 Responses to “MASH Report (11/19/13) – Starting Pitcher DL Projections Reviewed”

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  1. Daniel says:

    I assume you mean “will be out for the entire 2014 season” for Danny Hultzen, not 2015

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Mike says:

    No news are Cargo?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Gee's Up, Hoes Down says:

    What’s the news on Josh Beckett? He seems to have fallen off the face of the earth.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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