MASH Report (1/28/13)

Today, I will focus on players who played through injuries in 2012 and how those players performed compared to their projections. I found players, who played through injuries, over performed their their projected power numbers the next season. From my last year’s FG+ article:

If a player persevered through an injury during the season, their overall stats probably suffered. Projections don’t know if a player played through injuries, though. The player’s projections might have been better if the player had simply gone on the disabled list to recover instead of trying to play through pain.

In conclusion, I found the following differences:

Stat: Difference from projection
AVG: -0.001
OBP: 0.000
SLG: +0.013
ISO: +0.014

Then I identified 18 hitters (Jason Heyward, Chris Young, David Wright, Adam Dunn, Andre Ethier, Adam Lind, Alex Rios, Matt Holliday, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Brantley, Franklin Gutierrez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Rajai Davis, J.P. Arencibia, Denard Span, Scott Rolen) who played through injuries in 2011. Here is how the group performed according to their Marcel projections.

Stat: Difference from projection
AVG: +0.005
OBP: +0.001
SLG: +0.016
ISO: +0.011

The results were almost identical with the main factor depressed in the projections was power.

Throughout the 2012 season, I kept track of any report of a batter playing through an injury. Here is the list of players who should exceed their 2013 power projections because they played through injuries:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki

Recent injury data

 •  Free agent Carl Pavano was shoveling snow, fell and ruptured his spleen. There is so much wrong there, I don’t know where to start, but I will end with just stay away until he is healthy and has a job.

 •  Alex Rodriguez is likely lost for the year because of hip surgery. He may be worth a DL and stash in the last round or for a dollar or two. It is not worth paying any more.

•  Ryan Kalish is out again with more shoulder issues. Report are he will at least miss spring training. When back, he may platoon with Jonny Gomes in left field. The real news from this injury is more playing time for Gomes.

 •  Corey Hart will need knee surgery and be out until at least four months which puts his return at the end of May. Big winner here is his replacement Mat Gamel.

 •  Danny Espinosa reported a few days ago he had a torn rotator cuff over the last month of the season. During the season, he had an MRI and the shoulder injury was a bruised bone and inflamed shoulder socket. Before the injury he hit .258/.324/.420 and after the injury .171/.247/.271.

Player Return Timetables

Just some more additions to the tables. I will try to finish up all the TJS pitchers Thursday.

Name Injury Injury/Surgery Date Early Return Date Later Return date Status Source(s)
Joakim Soria TJS 4/2/12 Late May Early June Playing Catch (1)
Scott Baker TJS 4/17/12 Start of Spring Training Opening day Throwing off mound (1)
Brian Wilson TJS 4/19/12 Unknown Unknown Not ready to pitch (1)
Cory Luebke TJS 5/23/12 July July Unknown (1)
Danny Duffy TJS 6/13/12 Late May/Early June All Star Game Playing Catch (1)
Kyle Drabek TJS 6/19/12 Mid Season Mid Season Unknown (1)
Brandon Beachy TJS 6/21/12 Mid June Mid June Playing Catch (1)
Felipe Paulino TJS 7/3/12 Late July Late July Unknown (1)
Daniel Hudson TJS 7/9/12 July July Playing Catch (1)
Neftali Feliz TJS 8/1/12 July August Playing Catch (1)
Brian McCann Torn labrum 7/4/05 Opening Day Mid April Running and throwing (1)
 Andrew Cashner Thumb laceration 1/25/13 May May Rest (1)
Francisco Liriano Broken humerus 12/1/12 Early April Late May Rest (1)
Carl Pavano Ruptured spleen 1/25/13 Late March Mid April Rest (1)
Carl Crawford TJS 8/23/12 Early April Unknown Throwing (1)
Alex Rodriguez Hip surgery 1/16/13 Early July 2014 season Rest (1)
Michael Pineda Shoulder Surgery 5/1/12 May Early July Rest (1)
Ryan Kalish Shoulder Surgery 1/25/13 Early April Unknown Rest (1)
Corey Hart Right knee surgery 1/26/13 Late May Late May Rest (1)

Players Returning From Injury

Information will be added as it becomes available.

Players Playing Through Injuries

None know yet.

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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

6 Responses to “MASH Report (1/28/13)”

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  1. d_i says:

    As a Rendon owner, my 2013 PA expectations increased upon learning the news on Espinosa – sure he might be behind Lambardozzi, but I’m starting to expect to see him see some time at 2b this year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Stuck in a Slump says:

      I don’t understand the line of thinking that a lot of people have where Rendon will play 2B. So far in his professional career, Rendon has never played a game there, he’s only ever played at 3B and as the DH. I would think that if the Nationals thought they might need him there some time, or that he might be able to handle an up the middle position, shouldn’t he have been given a shot by now?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • d_i says:

        He only played in 45 games last year after coming back from yet another injury. I just tend to think last year was about getting back healthy and comfortable adjusting to his first experience at pro ball. I think that now that he’s healthy, they are more likely to try to fit him in if he produces as expected. 3B is still his most likely long term destination but if these three conceivable things happen, I expect to see him get 2b time: 1. Zimmerman, LaRache, (obviously Rendon as well) stay healthy 2. Espinosa or his injury replacement struggle 3. Rendon produces in the minors. Sure multiplying the odds of each of those might make it a stretch, but I’m just stating that I’m seeing the writing on the wall for that to materialize.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Stuck in a Slump says:

        Even if the only reason Rendon hasn’t play 2B as a professional, he still only has a handful of games in his collegiate record at 2B, Rice shows him playing just two games there, so the reason to believe that he’ll move from 3B to 2B is still slim, and given Zimmerman’s throwing issues, he could be moved to 1B, and since the Nationals are only committed to LaRoche for two years (we could presume that they didn’t want to give him three years guaranteed because of the Rendon situation), Rendon would be the natural replacement for him.

        I’d be heavily surprised if Rendon played enough games at 2B to qualify there in a given season, and would be even more shocked if he played there long enough for his eligibility to carry over to the next season. Between Espinoza and Lombardozzi, I just don’t see the Nationals moving him off of his natural position except for the most extreme cases.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Ian says:

    I don’t know that I’d categorize A-Rod as “likely” to miss the entire season at this point. But he’s certain to miss the first half at the very least, and who knows how he’ll perform after that.

    I wouldn’t even waste DL space on him, unless you have a lot of DL slots in your league. At most, keep him in the back of your mind in case your 3B busts and you need to pick someone up for the stretch run that may slightly out-perform other waiver-wire types, as 3B looks to be very shallow this season.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. canuckassassin says:

    I’m very disappointed that this article wasn’t about the episode of MASH where Charles loses all his money betting on the Dodgers to win the pennant.

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

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