MASH Report (2/25/13)
I am working my way through Dr. James Andrew’s book on sports injuries, Any Given Monday. While the book is focused mainly on youth sports injuries, some of the information applies to older athletes. I found the entire chapter on baseball injuries is free online for viewing. I would highly recommend reading the entire chapter for some good information on baseball injury prevention.
Recent injury data
• Curtis Granderson is out until early May with a broken forearm. Right now the Yankees are saying they are going to look in house for a replacement. I don’t exactly buy it. I would wait a couple of weeks if possible to see what they do for a replacement.
• Johan Santana‘s start to spring training is delay because of weakness. The article reports a lack of velocity and an inability to throw his change. He will be trying to build up his strength. I would not acquire him without other possible starting pitcher options already in place.
• Justin Ruggiano is day-to-day with a strained back. Back injuries just never seem to go away. Monitor him to see how long it takes him to start playing games regularly.
• Ian Stewart is out 2-3 weeks with a quad strain. He was to be the starting 3B for the Cubs. Luis Valbuena will be filling as the Cubs 3B in while Stewart is hurt, but Stewart should get the starting job back once he returns
• Jeff Mathis will miss six weeks with a broken collarbone. Too bad no one will miss the career 0.198 hitter.
• David Ortiz and Mike Napoli are to be ready by opening day. One interesting piece of data from the article is this information from John Farrell:
Farrell said Ortiz would only need about two weeks’ worth of games to feel ready for Opening Day.
“If you ask any hitter, they get their timing pretty good in a two-week period. That’s going to give him probably 35-40 at-bats,” the manager said. “Time’s on our side in terms of a position player.”
So if a hitter is out for a while, they need 35-40 at-bats to get up to speed. Is this the same during the season? I may have to look to examine the data to see if there is any truth to the quote.
• Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford both look ready to return playing by the start of the season.
• Luis Perez (TJS recovery) and Chris Carpenter (spine and right shoulder irritation) were both officially placed on the 60-day disabled list.
• I will be keeping track of pitcher fastball velocities when possible during spring training (mainly games at Surprise and Peoria) to look for any changes. Here are the values from several pitchers along with any previous season velocities. Alexi Ogando was the only pitcher who set off several red flags. Besides Ogando, Kelvin Herrera and Stephen Pryor both saw losses of over 2 mph from their 2012 average velocity. I will keep track of the trio’s future appearances.
For reference, fastball speeds stabilize quickly and spring training values are on average 0.6 mph slower than the regular season. Finally, thanks to brooksbaseball.net for the 2013 spring training Pitchf/x values.
All values are mph.
Alexi Ogando – The large drop in his velocity and other traits led me to write an entire article on his first start.
2010: 96.2
2011: 95.0
2012: 96.9
2013 ST (2/22): 93.1
Hector Noesi
2011: 93.3
2012: 92.5
2013 ST (2/22): 91.5
Derek Holland
2010: 92.1
2011: 94.2
2012: 93.0
2013 ST (2/22): 93.2
Kelvin Herrera:
2011: 96.2
2012: 98.5
2013 ST (2/24): 95.0
Tim Collins
2011: 92.4
2012: 93.2
2013 ST (2/24): 92.0
Tom Wilhelmsen
2011: 95.2
2012: 96.3
2013 ST (2/24): 94.9
Charles Furbush
2011: 90.9
2012: 91.3
2013 ST (2/24): 89.8
Stephen Pryor
2012: 96.6
2013 ST (2/24): 92.0
Casey Kelly (45th ranked prospect by Baseball America(BA))
2012: 91.2
2013 ST (2/24): 91.2
Robbie Ross
2012: 91.8
2013 ST (2/22): 91.2
Brad Boxberger
2012: 91.6
2013 ST (2/23): 91.8
Besides players with previous reported velocities, here are the fastball speeds for three highly touted pitching prospects:
Taijuan Walker (18th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/23): 94.6
Danny Hultzen (29th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/23): 91.3
Yordano Ventura (85th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/22): 98.0
James Paxton (87 ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/24): 89.5
Player Return Timetables
| Name | Injury | Injury/Surgery Date | Early Return Date | Later Return date | Status | Source(s) |
| Scott Baker | TJS | 4/17/12 | Mid April | May | Throwing off mound | (1) |
| Grant Balfour | Knee | 2/14/13 | Late March | Middle April | Rest | (1) |
| Brandon Beachy | TJS | 6/21/12 | Mid June | Mid June | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Lance Berkman | Knee | 10/1/12 | Late April | Mid March | Working out | (1) |
| Jeremy Bonderman | TJS | 04/24/12 | Late March | Late March | Healthy | (1) |
| Tim Byrdak | Shoulder Surgery | 07/01/12 | Early July | Early July | Bullpen Sessions | (1) |
| Edwar Cabrera | Shoulder | 08/01/12 | Mid March | Unknown | Unknown | (1) |
| Chris Carpenter | Nerve | 02/05/13 | September | Retire | Rest | (1) |
| Andrew Cashner | Thumb laceration | 1/25/13 | Late March | May | Rest | (1) |
| Carl Crawford | TJS | 8/23/12 | Early March | Late March | Throwing | (1) |
| Scott Diamond | Elbow Surgery | 10/1/12 | Early April | Early May | Unknown | (1) |
| Kyle Drabek | TJS | 6/19/12 | Mid Season | Mid Season | Unknown | (1) |
| Danny Duffy | TJS | 6/13/12 | Late May/Early June | All Star Game | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Neftali Feliz | TJS | 8/1/12 | July | August | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Frank Francisco | Elbow | 2/14/13 | April | Unknown | Rest | (1) |
| Rafael Furcal | Elbow | 2/20/13 | Mid March | Mid April | Rest | (1) |
| Mat Gamel | Knee | 2/18/13 | 2014 | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
| Curtis Granderson | Right forearm | 2/24/13 | Early May | Middle May | Rest | (1) |
| Corey Hart | Right knee surgery | 1/26/13 | Late April | Late May | Rest | (1) |
| Daniel Hudson | TJS | 7/9/12 | July | July | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Drew Hutchison | TJS | 08/08/12 | August | October | Rehabilitation | (1) |
| Derek Jeter | Fractured Left Ankle | 10/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Fielding | (1) |
| Ryan Kalish | Shoulder Surgery | 1/25/13 | Early April | Unknown | Rest | (1) |
| Matt Kemp | Shoulder | 8/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Light Training | (1) |
| Colby Lewis | Elbow Surgery | 7/1/12 | Late May | July | Throwing | (1) |
| Francisco Liriano | Broken humerus | 12/1/12 | Early April | Late May | Rest | (1) |
| Cory Luebke | TJS | 5/23/12 | July | July | Unknown | (1) |
| Ryan Madson | TJS | 04/11/12 | April | May | Rest | (1) |
| Nick Masset | Shoulder Surgery | 09/07/12 | Unknown | Unknown | Throwing | (1) |
| Jeff Mathis | Broken Collarbone | 02/23/13 | Mid March | Mid March | Rest | (1) |
| Brian McCann | Torn labrum | 7/4/12 | Mid April | May | Running and throwing | (1) |
| Logan Morrison | Knee | 9/1/12 | Late March | Late April | Light Training | (1) |
| Charlie Morton | TJS | 06/21/12 | June | Unknown | Throwing | (1) |
| Juan Oviedo | TJS | 09/06/12 | September | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
| Felipe Paulino | TJS | 7/3/12 | Early July | Early July | Unknown | (1) |
| Carl Pavano | Ruptured spleen | 1/25/13 | Late March | Mid April | Rest | (1) |
| Mike Pelfrey | TJS | 05/01/12 | Late March | Late March | Throwing | (1) |
| Michael Pineda | Shoulder Surgery | 5/1/12 | June | Early July | Rest | (1) |
| Wilson Ramos | ACL | 5/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Catching | (1) |
| Alex Rodriguez | Hip surgery | 1/16/13 | Early July | 2014 season | Rest | (1)(2) |
| CC Sabathia | Bone Spur | 10/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Throwing | (1) |
| Johan Santana | Back | Late April | Middle March | Throwing off mound | (1) | |
| George Sherrill | TJS | 5/1/11 | Late April | May | Bullpen Sessions | (1) |
| Joakim Soria | TJS | 4/2/12 | Late May | Early June | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Eric Surkamp | TJS | 07/24/12 | Late July | September | Unknown | (1) |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | TJS | 05/11/12 | May | Jun | Throwing off mound | (1) |
| Josh Tomlin | TJS | 08/22/12 | August | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
| Joe Wieland | TJS | 07/27/12 | Early August | 2014 | Catch | (1) |
| Brian Wilson | TJS | 4/19/12 | Unknown | Unknown | Not ready to pitch | (1) |
| Randy Wolf | TJS | 10/30/12 | 2014 | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
| Delmon Young | Right ankle | 10/1/12 | Mid April | Early May | Rest | (1) |
Players Returning From Injury
Information will be added as it becomes available.
Players Playing Through Injuries
| Name | Injury | Source |
| Hanley Ramirez | Shoulder | (1) |
Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:
Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta and Howie Kendrick
Question 1. On the return time tables, I update them with new information, but don’t designate it in any way. Would you like the updated data designated in any way. I was thinking of changing the (x) to the next highest number for an update. Or just make the update information Bold or red? Thought.
Coloring seems like a good idea
Colors > numbers. Information can come in fast and furious. Without personally keeping track, it will be tough to know if a higher number means newer information or just a high-profile injury (with more frequent updates).
An alternative idea is to have the list sorted by the date of the most recent update. Newest info at the top, oldest at the bottom.
Question 2. How do you like the velocity numbers? Should it be all pitchers in ST or just pitchers who lost a certain amount of velocity like 2 mph. I have to basically look at every pitcher, so adding everyones values isn’t that much more work. Should it change once the regular season starts?
Just the velocity changes you think are significant please. (I now find myself wondering what you are telling us about Derek Holland given us velocity is the same roughly as last year and he’s not coming off of an injury).
Significant changes sounds best.
Things of note:
Paxton might be a velocity loss candidate. If you’ve got him clocked at 89MPH this spring then it seems like he’s a couple miles under his average. He generally sits around 92-94 with his four seamer getting up to 97 some scouts have said.
what’s the standard dev for velocity loss? I would want to know how significant a 2mph change is. The stand dev should also vary by appearance/IP so as ST goes on you can lower the deviation. I feel like 2mph is pretty arbitrary at this point.
I echo the ‘significant’ side, but share Gump’s thought that significant might be arbitrary. And velocity gains are just as significant as velocity losses.
I think some research was done on this last year (probably by you, Jeff). Even if there isn’t a fundamental basis for a cutoff, I think 2 MPH above/below last years number is a reasonable point.
As for formatting, it would look great in the same table format as the return timetables. Player/last year/this year/change. Not sure if most recent outing is better than best/worst outing, though. That’s why you make the millions, I guess.
OK, thanks. I think I will track the pitchers with a loss or gain of 2 mph for the next report. I will also let the readers know if any pitchers were move off the list.
Jeff – thanks for the work. Bold for changes sounds good to me.
So we should add the 0.6 mph to the ST velocities in order to compare them to the 2011 and 2011 figures?
something doesnt seem right with ortiz. hes 7 months removed he should be further along by now. Notorious slow starter also I dont like a limited spring. He was a target of mine, now I think I will stay away.
Hi. How often you publish the Mash Report?
I try for Monday and Thursday afternoons with big news (Granderson) covered by the rest of the staff or when I see fit (Ognando’s outing).