- FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy -

MASH Report (2/25/13)

I am working my way through Dr. James Andrew’s book on sports injuries, Any Given Monday. While the book is focused mainly on youth sports injuries, some of the information applies to older athletes. I found the entire chapter on baseball injuries is free online for viewing. I would highly recommend reading the entire chapter for some good information on baseball injury prevention.

Recent injury data

 • Curtis Granderson is out until early May with a broken forearm. Right now the Yankees are saying they are going to look in house for a replacement. I don’t exactly buy it. I would wait a couple of weeks if possible to see what they do for a replacement.

 • Johan Santana‘s start to spring training is delay because of weakness. The article reports a lack of velocity and an inability to throw his change. He will be trying to build up his strength. I would not acquire him without other possible starting pitcher options already in place.

 • Justin Ruggiano is day-to-day with a strained back. Back injuries just never seem to go away. Monitor him to see how long it takes him to start playing games regularly.

 • Ian Stewart is out 2-3 weeks with a quad strain. He was to be the starting 3B for the Cubs. Luis Valbuena will be filling as the Cubs 3B in while Stewart is hurt, but Stewart should get the starting job back once he returns

 • Jeff Mathis will miss six weeks with a broken collarbone. Too bad no one will miss the career 0.198 hitter.

 • David Ortiz and Mike Napoli are to be ready by opening day. One interesting piece of data from the article is this information from John Farrell:

Farrell said Ortiz would only need about two weeks’ worth of games to feel ready for Opening Day.

“If you ask any hitter, they get their timing pretty good in a two-week period. That’s going to give him probably 35-40 at-bats,” the manager said. “Time’s on our side in terms of a position player.”

So if a hitter is out for a while, they need 35-40 at-bats to get up to speed. Is this the same during the season? I may have to look to examine the data to see if there is any truth to the quote.

 • Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford both look ready to return playing by the start of the season.

 • Luis Perez (TJS recovery) and Chris Carpenter (spine and right shoulder irritation) were both officially placed on the 60-day disabled list.

 • I will be keeping track of pitcher fastball velocities when possible during spring training (mainly games at Surprise and Peoria) to look for any changes. Here are the values from several pitchers along with any previous season velocities. Alexi Ogando was the only pitcher who set off several red flags. Besides Ogando, Kelvin Herrera and Stephen Pryor both saw losses of over 2 mph from their 2012 average velocity. I will keep track of the trio’s future appearances.

For reference, fastball speeds stabilize quickly and spring training values are on average 0.6 mph slower than the regular season. Finally, thanks to brooksbaseball.net for the 2013 spring training Pitchf/x values.

All values are mph.

Alexi Ogando – The large drop in his velocity and other traits led me to write an entire article on his first start.
2010: 96.2
2011: 95.0
2012: 96.9
2013 ST (2/22): 93.1

Hector Noesi
2011: 93.3
2012: 92.5
2013 ST (2/22): 91.5

Derek Holland
2010: 92.1
2011: 94.2
2012: 93.0
2013 ST (2/22): 93.2

Kelvin Herrera:
2011: 96.2
2012: 98.5
2013 ST (2/24): 95.0

Tim Collins
2011: 92.4
2012: 93.2
2013 ST (2/24): 92.0

Tom Wilhelmsen
2011: 95.2
2012: 96.3
2013 ST (2/24): 94.9

Charles Furbush
2011: 90.9
2012: 91.3
2013 ST (2/24): 89.8

Stephen Pryor
2012: 96.6
2013 ST (2/24): 92.0

Casey Kelly (45th ranked prospect by Baseball America(BA))
2012: 91.2
2013 ST (2/24): 91.2

Robbie Ross
2012: 91.8
2013 ST (2/22): 91.2

Brad Boxberger
2012: 91.6
2013 ST (2/23): 91.8

Besides players with previous reported velocities, here are the fastball speeds for three highly touted pitching prospects:

Taijuan Walker (18th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/23): 94.6

Danny Hultzen (29th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/23): 91.3

Yordano Ventura (85th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/22): 98.0

James Paxton (87 ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/24): 89.5

Player Return Timetables

Name Injury Injury/Surgery Date Early Return Date Later Return date Status Source(s)
Scott Baker TJS 4/17/12 Mid April May Throwing off mound (1)
Grant Balfour Knee 2/14/13 Late March Middle April Rest (1)
Brandon Beachy TJS 6/21/12 Mid June Mid June Playing Catch (1)
Lance Berkman Knee 10/1/12 Late April Mid March Working out (1)
Jeremy Bonderman TJS 04/24/12 Late March Late March Healthy (1)
Tim Byrdak Shoulder Surgery 07/01/12 Early July Early July Bullpen Sessions (1)
Edwar Cabrera Shoulder 08/01/12 Mid March Unknown Unknown (1)
Chris Carpenter Nerve 02/05/13 September Retire Rest (1)
 Andrew Cashner Thumb laceration 1/25/13 Late March May Rest (1)
Carl Crawford TJS 8/23/12 Early March Late March Throwing (1)
Scott Diamond Elbow Surgery 10/1/12 Early April Early May Unknown (1)
Kyle Drabek TJS 6/19/12 Mid Season Mid Season Unknown (1)
Danny Duffy TJS 6/13/12 Late May/Early June All Star Game Playing Catch (1)
Neftali Feliz TJS 8/1/12 July August Playing Catch (1)
Frank Francisco Elbow 2/14/13 April Unknown Rest (1)
Rafael Furcal Elbow 2/20/13 Mid March Mid April Rest (1)
Mat Gamel Knee 2/18/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Curtis Granderson Right forearm 2/24/13 Early May Middle May Rest (1)
Corey Hart Right knee surgery 1/26/13 Late April Late May Rest (1)
Daniel Hudson TJS 7/9/12 July July Playing Catch (1)
Drew Hutchison TJS 08/08/12 August October Rehabilitation (1)
Derek Jeter Fractured Left Ankle 10/1/12 Late March Late March Fielding (1)
Ryan Kalish Shoulder Surgery 1/25/13 Early April Unknown Rest (1)
Matt Kemp Shoulder 8/1/12 Late March Late March Light Training (1)
Colby Lewis Elbow Surgery 7/1/12 Late May July Throwing (1)
Francisco Liriano Broken humerus 12/1/12 Early April Late May Rest (1)
Cory Luebke TJS 5/23/12 July July Unknown (1)
Ryan Madson TJS 04/11/12 April May Rest (1)
Nick Masset Shoulder Surgery 09/07/12 Unknown Unknown Throwing (1)
Jeff Mathis Broken Collarbone 02/23/13 Mid March Mid March Rest (1)
Brian McCann Torn labrum 7/4/12 Mid April May Running and throwing (1)
Logan Morrison Knee 9/1/12 Late March Late April Light Training (1)
Charlie Morton TJS 06/21/12 June Unknown Throwing (1)
Juan Oviedo TJS 09/06/12 September 2014 Rest (1)
Felipe Paulino TJS 7/3/12 Early July Early July Unknown (1)
Carl Pavano Ruptured spleen 1/25/13 Late March Mid April Rest (1)
Mike Pelfrey TJS 05/01/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Michael Pineda Shoulder Surgery 5/1/12 June Early July Rest (1)
Wilson Ramos ACL 5/1/12 Late March Late March Catching (1)
Alex Rodriguez Hip surgery 1/16/13 Early July 2014 season Rest (1)(2)
CC Sabathia Bone Spur 10/1/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Johan Santana Back Late April Middle March Throwing off mound (1)
George Sherrill TJS 5/1/11 Late April May Bullpen Sessions (1)
Joakim Soria TJS 4/2/12 Late May Early June Playing Catch (1)
Eric Surkamp TJS 07/24/12 Late July September Unknown (1)
Tsuyoshi Wada TJS 05/11/12 May Jun Throwing off mound (1)
Josh Tomlin TJS 08/22/12 August 2014 Rest (1)
Joe Wieland TJS 07/27/12 Early August 2014 Catch (1)
Brian Wilson TJS 4/19/12 Unknown Unknown Not ready to pitch (1)
Randy Wolf TJS 10/30/12 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Delmon Young Right ankle 10/1/12 Mid April Early May Rest (1)

Players Returning From Injury

Information will be added as it becomes available.

Players Playing Through Injuries

Name Injury Source
Hanley Ramirez Shoulder (1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta and Howie Kendrick