MASH Report (3/25/13)

In the general injury material for this week, I have found a couple interesting articles.

Kyle Boddy’s piece at the Hardball Times where he looks at how different injured pitchers at different levels were handled by their coaches.

Second, Bill Petti examined claims by Bill James about groundball pitchers. Bill James claims groundball pitchers are more injury prone while Bill found the exact opposite.

Recent injury data

 • Roy Halladay is not close to the same pitcher we have seen in the past. He got only 7 of 18 minor league batters out in his last start. He hasn’t been able to put together one good start this season, but according to him, nothing is wrong besides a stomach virus. The virus caused him to lose 10 pounds in 2 days. No one should expect to be 100% after losing 10 pounds quickly.

On the other hand, his velocity has been down over 4 mph since the start of spring training. He has begun to compare himself to Jamie Moyer.

“No, to me, it’s a competition. It’s not a boxing match. It’s not strength versus strength. It’s a chess match. It’s competition of the mind, and execution, and being smarter and being more prepared. To me, that’s what I’ve enjoyed. That’s what I’ve liked about baseball. You look at a Jamie Moyer. He could compete with the best of them. He would have gotten knocked out in the first round if he was a boxer.”

I think most fantasy owners will have heard or read of the struggles by now, so no one will value him like in the past. I am wondering if people will go to the other end of the spectrum and way under value him. If the bug was killing his strength, he could be a top 10 pitcher. Or he could be Jamie Moyer. Right now I see him as the highest risk-reward in the draft.

 • Jason Motte is down with an elbow strain. The team looks looks to bring him back quickly according to GM John Mozeliak

“Right now it’s going to slow him down. We’re certainly going to be aggressive with the rehab.”

The preceding quote should stir mixed emotions for his owners. Good: He will be back soon and accumulating Saves. Bad: He may be rushed back and risk further injury. Mitchell Boggs (2.3 K/BB) is a must pick up in Save leagues right now and maybe should be held for a while once Motte returns.

 • Adam Eaton is out for 4-8 weeks with a strained left elbow (small tear in his UCL). A smorgusborg of player have been listed as his replacement including A.J. Pollock, Martin Prado, Gerardo Parra and Cody Ross (injured).

 • Expect Derek Jeter to start the season on the DL since he is playing minor league games. Teams are able to back date the DL start day to the last day played with the MLB team. Players who may need a less than 15 day DL stint to start the season will be playing minor league games (see Sandoval, Halladay, Drew, Markakis etc).

 • Greg Holland‘s fastball velocity is down 2 mph from last season (96.5 mph to 94.5 mph). Keep an eye to see if he happens to struggle and look at picking up setup man, Kelvin Herrera, as insurance.

 • Shin-Soo Choo‘s is experiencing back spasms. He is expected to be ready by opening day. I don’t like rostering players with back issues since the problems never seem to go away. David Freese is one such player who just can’t shake his back issue, but it seems Nick Markakis‘s back no longer hurts.

 • Add Paul Konerko to the list of players who played through an injury last season.

After a minor offseason procedure to take care of a nagging wrist injury, Paul Konerko said he is as good as new and ready to take on the 2013 season. 

In fact, the recovery time was so short that Konerko seemed to have a twinge of regret about not having the procedure done when the wrist started to bother him last season. 

“The surgery was a lot easier and way less recovery time than what we thought,” Konerko said. “There was no way of knowing that until we went in there and got it out. But within 10-12 days after the surgery, I felt like I could have played in a game.” 

Expect him to possible exceed his 2013 projections since the numbers don’t know he was battling through the wrist injury.

 • Pablo Sandoval is dealing with bone spurs in his elbow. He is missing days here and there for the injury. His owners may look into the depleted 3B pool of players for some possible insurance.

 • Currently, Brian McCann will likely miss all of April because of a shoulder injury.

 • Stephen Drew has been OK’ed to play after his concussion. It still may be a few weeks before he joins the Red Sox.

 • The Cubs Scott Baker will miss at least half of the 2013 season because from a elbow muscle strain. He had Tommy John surgery on the elbow last season.

 • Chad Bilingsley expects to be ready by opening day.

Player Return Timetables

Name Injury Injury/Surgery Date Early Return Date Later Return date Status Source(s)
Scott Baker TJS Complications 4/17/12 Late July August Rest (1)
Grant Balfour Knee 2/14/13 Late March Middle April Throwing Games (1)
Brandon Beachy TJS 6/21/12 Mid June Mid June Playing Catch (1)
Lance Berkman Knee 10/1/12 Late March Mid April Playing Games (1)
Jeremy Bonderman TJS 4/24/12 Late March Late March Throwing Games (1)
Craig Breslow Sore Shoulder 3/7/13 April April Throwing (1)
Tim Byrdak Shoulder Surgery 7/1/12 Early July Early July Bullpen Sessions (1)
Edwar Cabrera (**) Shoulder 8/1/12 Mid April Unknown Unknown (1)
Chris Carpenter (**) Nerve 2/5/13 2014 Retire Rest (1)
 Andrew Cashner Thumb laceration 1/25/13 Late March April Throwing Games (1)
Carl Crawford TJS 8/23/12 Late March Early April Playing Games (1)
Jesse Crain Abductor Strain 3/4/13 Late March Early April Bullpen Sessions (1)
Chase d’Arnaud (**) Thumb 2/20/13 Mid May June Rest (1)
John Danks Shoulder 3/15/13 Early April April Throwing Games (1)
Scott Diamond (*) Elbow Surgery 10/1/12 Mid April May Bullpen Sessions (1)
Kyle Drabek (**) TJS 6/19/12 Mid Season Mid Season Unknown (1)
Stephen Drew Concussion 3/3/13 Late March April Rest (1)
Danny Duffy TJS 6/13/12 Early June All Star Game Throwing (1)
Adam Eaton Strained Elbow 3/22/13 Late April Late May Rest (1)
Neftali Feliz (**) TJS 8/1/12 July August Playing Catch (1)
Frank Francisco Elbow 2/14/13 Late March Early April Throwing (1)
Rafael Furcal (*) TJS 3/13/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Mat Gamel (**) Knee 2/18/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Christian Garcia (*) Forearm 3/22/13 April May Rest (1)
Matt Garza Strained Lat 2/21/13 April May Throwing (1)
Curtis Granderson Right forearm 2/24/13 Early May Middle May Rest (1)
Corey Hart Right knee surgery 1/26/13 May May Rest (1)
Chase Headley Broke Thumb 3/18/13 Mid April Late April Rest (1)
Daniel Hudson (**) TJS 7/9/12 July July Playing Catch (1)
Phil Hughes Bulging Disk 2/28/13 Late March Middle April Throwing (1)
Drew Hutchison (**) TJS 8/8/12 August October Rehabilitation (1)
Casey Janssen Shoulder Surgery 11/1/13 Late March Mid April Pitching (1)
Derek Jeter Fractured Left Ankle 10/1/12 Early April Early May Playing Games (1)
Ryan Kalish (**) Shoulder Surgery 1/25/13 Early April Unknown Rest (1)
Jeff Karstens Shoulder 2/1/13 Late March April Batting Practice (1)
Casey Kelly Elbow 3/14/13 Unknown 2014 Rest (1)
Josh Kinney Side 3/10/13 Late April Early May Rest (1)
Brett Lawrie Ribs 3/7/13 Early April Late April Catch (1)
Colby Lewis Elbow Surgery 7/1/12 Late May June Throwing (1)
Francisco Liriano Broken humerus 12/1/12 Early April Late May Rest (1)
Cory Luebke TJS 5/23/12 July July Unknown (1)
Ryan Madson TJS 4/11/12 May June Throwing off mound (1)
Shawn Marcum Shoulder 3/20/13 Late March Unknown Throwing (1)
Nick Masset Shoulder Surgery 9/7/12 Unknown Unknown Throwing (1)
Jeff Mathis Broken Collarbone 2/23/13 Early May Early May Rest (1)
Brian McCann Torn labrum 7/4/12 Late April May Batting Practice (1)
Franklin Morales Bulging Disk 3/15/13 Early April Late April Rest (1)
Logan Morrison Knee 9/1/12 Late April Early May Light Training (1)
Charlie Morton TJS 6/21/12 June Unknown Throwing (1)
Jason Motte Elbow Strain 3/23/13 Early March Late March Rest (1)
Daniel Murphy Intercostal Strain 3/18/13 Early April Late April Running bases (1)
David Ortiz Achilles 3/3/13 April April Hitting (1)
Juan Oviedo TJS 9/6/12 September 2014 Rest (1)
Felipe Paulino (**) TJS 7/3/12 Early July Early July Throwing (1)
Carl Pavano Ruptured spleen 1/25/13 Late March Mid April Rest (1)
Mike Pelfrey TJS 5/1/12 Late March April Throwing (1)
Chris Perez Strained Shoulder 3/1/13 Late March Early April Rest (1)
Luis Perez (**) TJS 7/1/12 Early July Early September Rest UNK
Martin Perez Broken Forearm 3/3/13 Late April Late May Rest (1)
Michael Pineda (**) Shoulder Surgery 5/1/12 June Early July Bullpen (1)
Carlos Quentin Knee 10/1/12 Late March April Fielding (1)
Hanley Ramirez Thumb 3/17/13 Early April June Rest (1)
Wilson Ramos ACL 5/1/12 Late March Late March Catching (1)
Clay Papada Shoulder 3/22/13 April April Bullpen work (1)
Alex Rodriguez (**) Hip surgery 1/16/13 Early July 2014 season Rest (1)
Fernando Rodriguez (**) TJS 3/14/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Cody Ross Strained Leg 1/6/13 Late March Early April Jogging (1)
CC Sabathia Bone Spur 10/1/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Johan Santana Back 2/25/13 Late March May Throwing off flat ground (1)
George Sherrill TJS 5/1/11 Late April May Bullpen Sessions (1)
Joakim Soria TJS 4/2/12 Late May Early June Playing Catch (1)
Ian Stewart Quadricep 2/15/13 April Unknown Everything, but run (1)
Eric Surkamp TJS 7/24/12 Late July September Unknown (1)
Anthony Swarzak (*) Ribs 1/25/13 April May Throw of mound (1)
Mark Teixeira Strained Wrist 3/6/13 Mid May 2014 Rest (1)
Tsuyoshi Wada TJS 5/11/12 May June Throwing off mound (1)
Josh Tomlin (**) TJS 8/22/12 August 2014 Rest (1)
Joe Wieland (**) TJS 7/27/12 Early August 2014 Catch (1)
Brian Wilson TJS 4/19/12 Unknown Unknown Not ready to pitch (1)
Randy Wolf TJS 10/30/12 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Blake Wood (**) TJS 5/1/12 May June Unknown UNK
David Wright Intercostal Strain 3/10/13 Late March Early April Swinging Bat (1)
Delmon Young Right ankle 10/1/12 Mid April Early May Rest (1)

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List

Players Returning From Injury

No information yet.

Players Playing Through Injuries

Will Middlebrooks Wrist (1)
Nolan Reimold Shoulder (1)
Russell Martin Shoulder (1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta, Howie Kendrick, Paul Konerko

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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first season in Tout Wars, he won the H2H league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Stuck in a Slump
Stuck in a Slump

Is Hart supposed to be listed as Late-May for his earliest and latest return dates or was that supposed to be early-May late-May?