MASH Report (3/7/13)

Bleacher Report’s Will Carroll has released a detailed Health Report for every major league team. Read away.

Recent injury data

 • Mark Teixeira is out 8-10 weeks with a strained wrist with Dan Johnson taking over at 1B.

 • Rafael Furcal will have Tommy John surgery and is done for the season.

 • Cody Ross was shut down for 2-3 weeks because of a lower leg strain. He will likely begin the season on the DL.

 • Delmon Young made weight, but will still be out until mid-April after having ankle surgery.

 • Craig Breslow will probably start the season on the disabled list.

 • Chad Billingsley‘s velocity is fine while dealing with a tear in his UCL. On 3/2 he was throwing at 92 mph after averaging 91.5 mph over the last 3 seasons. It will be interesting to see if he can make through the season without have Tommy John surgery to repair the tear. Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness looked at pitchers who decided not to get the surgery and determined most of the pitchers eventually ended up needing surgery.

 • After two horrible appearances to start the season, Alexi Ogando had a good outing on Wednesday where he struck out six batters and walked only two in 3 IP. His velocity was still down 2 mph and his release point was fairly scattered. Additionally, his fastball location was all over the place as noted by Ron Washington. His progress should continue to be monitored.

 • Juan Nicasio, who had micro fracture surgery this off season, averaged 94.2 mph while touching 97 mph. He averaged 93.5 in 2012.

 • Aramis Ramirez will be out a couple of weeks with a strained knee with a chance he may miss a few games to start the season.

 • Jesse Crain pulled out of the WBC and may not be ready for the start of the season.

 • Jenrry Mejia‘s thyroid is being looked at in New York.

Player Return Timetables

Name Injury Injury/Surgery Date Early Return Date Later Return date Status Source(s)
Scott Baker TJS 4/17/12 Mid April May Throwing off mound (1)
Grant Balfour Knee 2/14/13 Late March Middle April Throwing bullpen sessions (1)
Brandon Beachy TJS 6/21/12 Mid June Mid June Playing Catch (1)
Lance Berkman Knee 10/1/12 Late March Mid April Working out (1)
Jeremy Bonderman TJS 04/24/12 Late March Late March Healthy (1)
Craig Breslow Sore Shoulder 03/07/13 April April Throwing (1)
Tim Byrdak Shoulder Surgery 07/01/12 Early July Early July Bullpen Sessions (1)
Edwar Cabrera (**) Shoulder 08/01/12 Mid March Unknown Unknown (1)
Chris Carpenter (**) Nerve 02/05/13 September Retire Rest (1)
 Andrew Cashner Thumb laceration 1/25/13 Late March May Rest (1)
Carl Crawford TJS 8/23/12 Late March Early April Swinging (1)
Jesse Crain Abductor Strain 3/4/13 Late March Early April Rest (1)
Scott Diamond Elbow Surgery 10/1/12 Early April Early May Unknown (1)
Kyle Drabek (**) TJS 6/19/12 Mid Season Mid Season Unknown (1)
Danny Duffy TJS 6/13/12 Early June All Star Game Throwing (1)
Neftali Feliz TJS 8/1/12 July August Playing Catch (1)
Frank Francisco Elbow 2/14/13 Late March Early April Throwing (1)
Rafael Furcal TJS 3/7/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Mat Gamel Knee 2/18/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Matt Garza Strained Lat 2/21/13 April April Throwing (1)
Curtis Granderson Right forearm 2/24/13 Early May Middle May Rest (1)
Corey Hart Right knee surgery 1/26/13 Late April Late May Rest (1)
Daniel Hudson (**) TJS 7/9/12 July July Playing Catch (1)
Phil Hughes Bulging Disk 2/28/13 Late March Middle April Throwing (1)
Drew Hutchison TJS 08/08/12 August October Rehabilitation (1)
Derek Jeter Fractured Left Ankle 10/1/12 Late March Late March Fielding (1)
Ryan Kalish (**) Shoulder Surgery 1/25/13 Early April Unknown Rest (1)
Jeff Karstens Shoulder 2/1/13 Late March April Batting Practice (1)
Matt Kemp Shoulder 8/1/12 Late March Late March Light Training (1)
Colby Lewis Elbow Surgery 7/1/12 Late May June Throwing (1)
Francisco Liriano Broken humerus 12/1/12 Early April Late May Rest (1)
Cory Luebke TJS 5/23/12 July July Unknown (1)
Ryan Madson TJS 04/11/12 April May Rest (1)
Nick Masset Shoulder Surgery 09/07/12 Unknown Unknown Throwing (1)
Jeff Mathis Broken Collarbone 02/23/13 Mid March Mid March Rest (1)
Brian McCann Torn labrum 7/4/12 April April Batting Practice (1)
Logan Morrison Knee 9/1/12 Late March Late April Light Training (1)
Charlie Morton TJS 06/21/12 June Unknown Throwing (1)
David Ortiz Achilles 03/03/13 Late March April Hitting (1)
Juan Oviedo TJS 09/06/12 September 2014 Rest (1)
Felipe Paulino (**) TJS 7/3/12 Early July Early July Throwing (1)
Carl Pavano Ruptured spleen 1/25/13 Late March Mid April Rest (1)
Mike Pelfrey TJS 05/01/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Chris Perez Strained Shoulder 03/01/13 Late March Early April Rest (1)
Luis Perez (**) TJS 7/1/12 Early July Early September Rest UNK
Martin Perez Broken Forearm 03/03/13 Late April Late May Rest (1)
Michael Pineda Shoulder Surgery 5/1/12 June Early July Rest (1)
Aramis Ramirez Strained Knee 3/5/13 Middle March Late March Rest (1)
Wilson Ramos ACL 5/1/12 Late March Late March Catching (1)
Alex Rodriguez (**) Hip surgery 1/16/13 Early July 2014 season Rest (1)
Cody Ross Strained Leg 1/6/13 Late March Early April Rest (1)
CC Sabathia Bone Spur 10/1/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Johan Santana Back 2/25/13 Late March Middle April Throwing off mound (1)
George Sherrill TJS 5/1/11 Late April May Bullpen Sessions (1)
Joakim Soria TJS 4/2/12 Late May Early June Playing Catch (1)
Eric Surkamp TJS 07/24/12 Late July September Unknown (1)
Mark Teixeira Strained Wrist 03/06/13 Early May Late May Rest (1)
Tsuyoshi Wada TJS 05/11/12 May June Throwing off mound (1)
Josh Tomlin (**) TJS 08/22/12 August 2014 Rest (1)
Joe Wieland (**) TJS 07/27/12 Early August 2014 Catch (1)
Brian Wilson TJS 4/19/12 Unknown Unknown Not ready to pitch (1)
Randy Wolf TJS 10/30/12 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Delmon Young Right ankle 10/1/12 Mid April Early May Rest (1)

Pitchers with Velocity Drops

Name 2013 2012 2011 2010
Jeremy Bonderman 87.0 89.8
John Danks 87.0 90.1 91.6 91.7
Kelvin Herrera 95.9 98.5 96.2
Greg Holland 93.0 96.1 94.9 95.8
Roy Halladay 87.0 90.6 92.0 92.6
Joe Nathan 91.9 94.0 92.3
Alexi Ogando 94.9 96.9 95.0 96.2
Mike Pelfrey 88.0 93.5 92.2 92.0
Oliver Perez 90.7 93.7 88.0 90.0
Stephen Pryor 93.9 96.6

Addison Reed 92.5 94.6 94.9
Clayton Richardson 88.5 90.7 90.4 91.3
Joe Saunders 84.0 88.9 89.6 90.5

For reference, fastball speeds stabilize quickly and spring training values are on average 0.6 mph slower than the regular season.

Players Returning From Injury

No information yet.

Players Playing Through Injuries

Name Injury Source
Hanley Ramirez Shoulder (1)
Will Middlebrooks Wrist (1)
Nolan Riemold Shoulder (1)
Russell Martin Shoulder (1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta and Howie Kendrick

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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

15 Responses to “MASH Report (3/7/13)”

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  1. jevant says:

    Regrettably, I think you mean Dan Johnson, not Nick Johnson, will be taking over for Teix. The Yankees wish they had a healthy Nick Johnson to replace MT.

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    • Stuck in a Slump says:

      I was about to comment on this, since Nick just retired… I was so excited for him when he signed with the Yankees to DH a few years back. Definitely one of the greatest ‘what-ifs’ in recent memory, him and Grady Sizemore.

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  2. KJ says:

    Why is Ackley added? Any news or just your projection?

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    • Ender says:

      Ackley played through a bone spur in his ankle last year that he got cleaned up during the off season.

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  3. Dave says:

    Zimmerman, Kemp, Tulowitzki, Crawford, Maybin, and Ackley are all playing through injuries right now… you think they’re going to beat their power projections?

    Who do you have as playing through injuries as of now that we will see decreased power from? I think you should have:

    OF Jose Bautista (wrist)
    OF Matt Kemp (shoulder)
    SS Hanley Ramirez (shoulder)
    1B Albert Pujols (knee)
    SS Troy Tulowitzki (groin)
    3B Ryan Zimmerman (shoulder)
    3B Aramis Ramirez (knee)
    C Victor Martinez (knee)
    2B/SS Danny Espinosa (shoulder)
    OF Nelson Cruz (chest)
    C/1B Mike Napoli (hip)
    3B Will Middlebrooks (wrist)
    DH David Ortiz (achilles)
    OF Cameron Maybin (wrist)
    2B Chase Utley (knee)
    2B Neil Walker (back)
    C Russell Martin (shoulder)
    1B/3B Kevin Youkilis (oblique)
    OF Colby Rasmus (shoulder)
    C Alex Avila (knee)
    C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (back)
    OF Nolan Reimold (neck/shoulder)
    OF Andy Dirks (intercostal strain)
    OF Jonny Gomes (knee)
    OF Justin Ruggiano (back)
    2B Daniel Murphy (side)
    OF Carlos Quentin (knee)
    SS Derek Jeter (ankle)
    2B Dustin Ackley (ankle)

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    • Stuck in a slump says:

      Tulo had surgery in season in 2012 to clear up scar tissue affecting a nerve in his groin (this came from an older injury). He never played again during the season, and the underlying problem was removed. So, how is he playing through an injury exactly?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      No, hitters who played through injuries last season should exceed projections this season. If a hitter has an injury, and plays through it, their production will be reduced this season.

      Also, I am going to wait until the regular season to see if they “play” through them. When I have run the numbers, it was with players who played through them for a significant amount of time.

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  4. jim says:

    shouldn’t we expect ogando’s velocity this year to be much lower than where it was when he was a reliever last year? if he’s at 94.9, that’s essentially the same as the 95.0 he had as a starter in 2011

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  5. big red machine says:

    I Love the comment that Ogando had “only” 2 BBs in 3 IP… that’d be a BB/9 of only 6 lol

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  6. Rawl says:

    Where did you find velocity data for those pitchers?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      For the velocity data, I either read it in an article.


      Goto, look for games where Texas/KC or SanDiego/Seattle are at home and those games have velocities.

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  7. Scott Clarkson says:

    Sergio Santos and his ailing tricep in the surgically repaired arm has had his next ST appearance pushed back from Saturday to Monday or Tuesday….2nd delay….worth a mention?

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  8. Ashman says:

    Any notable jumps in velocity?

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