MASH Report (4/11/13)

Recent injury data

 • Matt Harrison was placed on the DL because of continuing back discomfort. He displayed several signs of injury with his Zone% going from 51.3% in 2012 to 41.3% in 2013. Also, his fastball velocity went from 92.1 mph to 91.2 mph over the same time frame. The more I follow injuries, a low Zone% is more of an indicator or injuries than loss of velocity. Here are the current starter laggards in Zone% (min. 2 starts).

Name Team Zone%
Lucas Harrell Astros 38.9 %
Cole Hamels Phillies 40.0 %
Wily Peralta Brewers 40.2 %
Alex Sanabia Marlins 40.2 %
Matt Harrison Rangers 41.3 %
Tim Lincecum Giants 41.5 %
Ryan Dempster Red Sox 41.8 %
Rick Porcello Tigers 42.3 %
Jaime Garcia Cardinals 42.5 %
Jeremy Hellickson Rays 42.7 %

 • Jered Weaver will be out for about a month with broken left elbow. Dave Cameron spotted Weaver’s issues before he was officially DL bound.

 • Scott Sizemore is probably done for 2013 with a torn ACL.

 • Also, Jeff Niemann‘s season is done because of shoulder surgery.

 • The decision to start or sit Wandy Rodriguez on Sunday may not come until late Saturday or Sunday.

 • Sean Marshall is out for a unknown time with “tendinitis”. It seems like the Reds or Marshall don’t know exactly the issue. In his one appearance, his fastball was off by 3 mph.

 • Bad news news for Jason Motte owners, he looks like he may end up getting Tommy John surgery. Decision coming in a couple of weeks.

 • Chris Narveson will miss some time with a sprained finger.

 • In completely useless news, Lou Marson is headed to the DL for a neck strain.

 • Erick Aybar looks DL bound with a left heel contusion. Too bad since he has been one of the bright spots on the Angels team this year.

 • Gordon Beckham needs to improve or he will also be headed to the DL.

 • Michael Saunders is another player who is possibly headed for the DL with a shoulder sprain.

Some players are looking at coming off the DL soon.

 • Darwin Barney is planning on returning this up coming Tuesday.

 • Cody Ross may return to the Diamondbacks on Friday. He may be nice pick up for a team needing an NL outfielder (19% ownership in Yahoo! leagues).

Player Return Timetables

Name Injury Injury/Surgery Date Early Return Date Later Return date Status Source(s)
Tony Abreu (*) Quad Strain UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Henderson Alvarez (*) Shoulder UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Scott Baker (**) TJS Complications 04/17/12 Late July August Rest (1)
Darwin Barney (*) Cut Knee 03/31/13 April 4th Late April Rest (1)
Brandon Beachy (*) TJS 06/21/12 Mid June Mid June Playing Catch (1)
Wilson Betemit (*) Knee 03/25/13 Late April Mid May Rest (1)
Jeff Bianchi (*) Hip UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Travis Blackley (*) Back 04/06/13 Late April Early May Rest (1)
Willie Bloomquist (*) Strained Oblique 03/27/13 UNK UNK Rest (1)
Craig Breslow (*) Sore Shoulder 03/07/13 April April Throwing (1)
Cesar Cabral (**) Elbow fracture UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Edwar Cabrera (**) Shoulder 08/01/12 Mid April Unknown Unknown (1)
Chris Carpenter (**) Nerve 02/05/13 2014 Retire Rest (1)
Jose Ceda (**) TJS 04/01/12 UNK UNK UNK UNK
Chase d’Arnaud (**) Thumb 02/20/13 Mid May June Rest (1)
James Darnell (*) Strained Oblique UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
John Danks (*) Shoulder 03/15/13 April April Throwing Games (1)
Cole De Vries (*) Forearm strain 03/20/13 Mid April May Rest (1)
Scott Diamond (*) Elbow Surgery 10/01/12 Mid April May Bullpen Sessions (1)
Kyle Drabek (**) TJS 06/19/12 Mid Season Mid Season Unknown (1)
Danny Duffy (*) TJS 06/13/12 Early June All Star Game Throwing (1)
Adam Eaton (*) Strained Elbow 03/22/13 Late April Late May Rest (1)
Scott Elbert (*) Elbow Surgery 01/01/13 UNK UNK UNK UNK
Nathan Eovaldi (*) Shoulder UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Josh Fields (*) Forearm strain 04/04/13 UNK UNK UNK UNK
Neftali Feliz (**) TJS 08/01/12 July August Playing Catch (1)
Logan Forsythe (*) Foot 03/28/13 Mid April May Playing (1)
Frank Francisco (*) Elbow 02/14/13 Mid April Mid April Throwing (1)
Freddie Freeman (*) Oblique 04/06/13 Late April Mid May Rest (1)
Rafael Furcal (*) TJS 03/13/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Mat Gamel (**) Knee 02/18/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Avisail Garcia (*) Bruised Heel 03/22/13 UNK UNK UNK (1)
Christian Garcia (*) Forearm 03/22/13 April May Rest (1)
Matt Garza (*) Strained Lat 02/21/13 Mid May June Throwing (1)
Jason Giambi (*) Back strain UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Didi Gredorius (*) Elbow UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Curtis Granderson (*) Right forearm 02/24/13 Early May Middle May Rest (1)
Taylor Green (*) Hip Strain UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Matt Harrison (*) Back 03/01/13 Early May June Rest
Corey Hart (**) Right knee surgery 01/26/13 Late May Late May Strengthening (1)
Chase Headley (*) Broke Thumb 03/18/13 Mid April Late April Batting Practice (1)
Frank Herrmann (**) TJS 03/01/13 UNK UNK UNK UNK
Daniel Hudson (**) TJS 07/09/12 July July Bullpen (1)
Drew Hutchison (**) TJS 08/08/12 August October Rehabilitation (1)
Brandon Inge (*) Shoulder UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Paul Janish (*) Shoulder Surgery 10/01/12 UNK UNK UNK UNK
Derek Jeter (*) Fractured Left Ankle 10/01/12 May 1st Mid May Batting Practice (1)
Steve Johnson (*) Lat strain UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Ryan Kalish (**) Shoulder Surgery 01/25/13 Early April Unknown Rest (1)
Jeff Karstens (*) Shoulder 02/01/13 April April Batting Practice (1)
Scott Kazmir (*) Abdominal Strain 04/04/13 Late April May Rest (1)
Casey Kelly (**) Elbow 03/14/13 Unknown 2014 Rest (1)
Josh Kinney (**) Side 03/10/13 May June Rest (1)
Casey Kotchman Hamstring 04/04/13 Late April May Rest (1)
John Lackey (*) Biceps 04/10/13 Late April May Rest (1)
Brett Lawrie (*) Ribs 03/07/13 Mid April Late April Exercise (1)
Colby Lewis (*) Elbow Surgery 07/01/12 Late May June Bullpen (1)
Ted Lilly (*) Shoulder Surgery 09/01/12 April April Pitching (1)
Francisco Liriano (*) Broken humerus 12/01/12 Early April Late May Rest (1)
Ryan Ludwick (*) Shoulder 04/03/13 Early July Early July Rest (1)
Cory Luebke (**) TJS 05/23/12 July July Playing Catch (1)
Ryan Madson (*) TJS 04/11/12 May June Throwing off mound (1)
Joe Mahoney (*) Intercostal Strain UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Shawn Marcum (*) Shoulder 03/20/13 Mid April Mid April Rest, again (1)
Sean Marshall (*) Tendinitis 03/10/13 UNK UNK Rest (1)
Lou Marson Neck 04/09/13 UNK UNK UNK UNK
Fernando Martinez (*) Strained Oblique UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Nick Masset (*) Shoulder Surgery 09/07/12 Unknown Unknown Throwing (1)
Jeff Mathis (*) Broken Collarbone 02/23/13 Early May Early May Rest (1)
Brian McCann (*) Torn labrum 07/04/12 Late April May Batting Practice (1)
Dustin McGowan (**) Shoulder UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Jerry Mejia (*) Elbow Sprain UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Franklin Morales (*) Bulging Disk 03/15/13 Early April Late April Rest (1)
Logan Morrison (**) Knee 09/01/12 Late May June Light Training (1)
Charlie Morton (*) TJS 06/21/12 June June Pitching (1)
Jason Motte (*) Elbow Strain/TJS? 03/23/13 Early May 2014 Rest (1)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (*) Strained hamstring 03/28/13 Mid April Mid April Rest (1)
Chris Naveson (*) Sprained finger 03/07/13 Late April May Rest (1)
Jeff Niemann (*) Shoulder 04/07/13 August 2014 Tests (1)
David Ortiz (*) Achilles 03/03/13 April 19th Early May MiLB Rehab (1)
Juan Oviedo (**) TJS 09/06/12 September 2014 Rest (1)
Felipe Paulino (**) TJS 07/03/12 Early July Early July Throwing (1)
Luis Perez (**) TJS 07/01/12 Early July Early September Rest UNK
Martin Perez (*) Broken Forearm 03/03/13 Late April Late May Bullpen (1)
Brett Pill (*) Knee UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Michael Pineda (**) Shoulder Surgery 05/01/12 June Early July Bullpen (1)
Armamis Ramierez (*) Knee 41370 Late April Early May Rest (1)
Hanley Ramirez (*) Thumb 03/17/13 Early April June Rest (1)
Brian Roberts (*) Knee 04/06/13 Late April Mid May Rest (1)
Adam Rosales (*) Thunk 03/24/13 Early April Late April Rest (1)
Alex Rodriguez (**) Hip surgery 01/16/13 Early July 2014 season Rest (1)
Fernando Rodriguez (**) TJS 03/14/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Mark Rodgers (*) Shoulder UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Cody Ross (*) Strained Leg 01/06/13 April April Jogging (1)
Johan Santana (**) Back 02/25/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Michael Schwimer (*) Shoulder UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Luke Scott (*) Calf Strain 03/31/13 Mid April Mid May Rest (1)
Leyson Septimo (*) Shoulder Strain UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Alfredo Silverio (**) Fractured Clavicle UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Scott Sizemore (*) ACL Tear 04/10/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Joakim Soria (*) TJS 04/02/12 Late May Early June Bullpen (1)
Ian Stewart (*) Quadricep 02/15/13 April Unknown Everything, but run (1)
Eric Surkamp (*) TJS 07/24/12 Late July September Unknown (1)
Andrew Taylor (**) Torn labrum UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Mark Teixeira (*) Strained Wrist 03/06/13 May 1st Mid June Rest (1)
Josh Tomlin (**) TJS 08/22/12 August 2014 Rest (1)
Jonny Venters (*) Elbow Sprain 03/26/13 Mid May UNK Rest (1)
Arodys Vizcaino (**) TJS 03/01/12 March June UNK UNK
Joe Wieland (**) TJS 07/27/12 Early August 2014 Catch (1)
Tsuyoshi Wada (**) TJS 05/11/12 May June Throwing off mound (1)
Jered Weaver (*) Broken Elbow 04/08/13 Mid May Early June Rest (1)
Alex White (**) Likely TJS 04/04/13 2014 2014 UNK (1)
Blake Wood (**) TJS 05/01/12 May June Unknown UNK
Tim Wood (*) Rotator cuff strain UNK UNK UNK UNK UNK
Delmon Young (*) Right ankle 10/01/12 Mid April Early May Rest (1)

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List

Players Returning From Injury

 • Stephen Drew returned from his concussion injury. A small study I did a couple of years ago showed players returning from concussions under performed for at least a month after returning. With Drew, watch to see if his owners look to move him if he struggles and get him at a under market price.

 • Chad Billingsley returned from the DL and all signs are good. His fastball averaged 91.2 mph which is 0.4 mph less than last season.

Players Playing Through Injuries

 • Carlos Beltran‘s broken toe may be behind the huge drop in his production. He isn’t hitting (.275 wOBA). His Speed Score is Adam Dunn like (0.3). I would not count on production from him for a while.

Name Injury Source
Carlos Beltran Toe (1)
Zack Greinke Elbow (1)
Bryce Harper Thumb (1)
Nick Markakis Neck (1)
Russell Martin Shoulder (1)
Will Middlebrooks Wrist (1)
Daniel Murphy Intercostal (1)
Albert Pujols Foot (1)
Nolan Reimold Shoulder (1)
Pablo Sandoval Elbow (1)
David Wright Intercostal (1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta, Howie Kendrick




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


7 Responses to “MASH Report (4/11/13)”

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  1. Jonathan Sher says:

    Love the excellent work you have done on this series, Jeff, but I’m not sure why you are praising Dave Cameron for “spotting Weaver’s issues before he went to the D.L.”

    Weaver went to the D.L. because his arm was broken when he fell trying to avoid a hard hit up the middle — perhaps he was surprised Mitch Moreland made such good contact.

    In any case, the issue Cameron pointed to had absolutely nothing with why Weaver went to the D.L..

    That aside, keep up the excellent and helpful work.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Dancing Homer says:

    Is that Zone% data still too small a sample size to be an indicator yet? You got me all scared about Cole Hamels.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Probably, but not exactly sure when Zone% stabilizes. I plan on looking at the April laggards from the last few seasons. I know Kyle Drabek had the lowest Zone% from 2012.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. big red machine says:

    I only looked at a couple so I don’t know if the rest are right, but Hellickson’s Zone % shows as 45% on his player page…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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