MASH Report (5/20/13)

Just one pitcher coming back from the DL to check velocity on, so I dug a little deeper into a few other players.

• One of favorite setup men, Vinnie Pestano, returned from the disabled list. His fastball velocity is off a couple mph from appearances earlier in the season.

It was just one inning, but his owners should keep a close eye on him to see if/when he is 100%.

Johnny Cueto will return tonight to the Reds rotation and may change his delivery to prevent further injury(source).

Cueto injured his right oblique in the National League Division Series last year. Soreness in the same area delayed his return from a strained lat muscle this year.

“This is part of the game, part of the sport,” Cueto said. “You can say maybe I do too much rotation. I’m going to have to see what’s going on. If that continues to happen, I’m going to have to change my mechanics.”

Cueto does an exaggerated turn as part of his delivery. He turns his back almost completely to the hitter as part of it.

He is going to have less body rotation which could easily lead to less velocity. I plan on covering tonight’s outing in detail for the main site tomorrow.

• A couple of hitters, Joe Mauer (source) and Adam Dunn (source), are dealing with back injuries. The effects of back injuries are just tough to shake. Both hitters have dealt with several injuries before in their careers. If I was counting on production from either (hope not from Dunn), try to get a contingency plan in place if either ends up on the DL.

David Freese states his earlier back injury is not part of his current struggles (source).

Freese said he has addressed and corrected the usual culprits behind an extended struggle. He insists his health, which complicated his spring training, is no longer an issue and points to how he’s moving at third base as proof. The trouble he had seeing the ball several weeks ago has been fixed. His swing is not a jumble of glitches.

Here is a quick look at power and contact numbers, indicators of an injury, to see if anything is wrong.

Season Contact% ISO FB&HR Dist
2011 79.9% 0.144 290
2012 75.3% 0.174 303
2013 74.9% 0.058 269

Definitely his power is down in 2013 and he has seen a small insignificant drop in contact. Back injuries are not a good thing. Let’s see if he can pull out of his current funk.

Alexi Ogando has been hurt for a while, you don’t say.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

18 Responses to “MASH Report (5/20/13)”

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  1. mymaus says:

    Price is injured and you mentioned in an earlier MASH that you thought that Gio might be an injury risk. Where do you rank them ROS?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I am not sure what to think with Price. I would like to see what happens once he starts throwing off the mound.

      Gio is still throwing, but the signs still point to an injury.

      I would stay will Gio, but he probably going to pitch as a 4 run pitcher. Price would be better if he comes back. I would rank them:

      Price(with good news) + replacement pitcher
      Gio and possible replacement pitcher later
      Price (with bad new) + replacement pitcher

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      • mymaus says:

        I should have checked your latest SP Consensus Rankings first. I noticed you ranked Gio 17 and Price 9. Do you still go with these ranks given Price’s injury and your thoughts about Gio being a 4.00 ERA pitcher?

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      • Jeff Zimmerman says:

        I had my ranks done before the Price injury. I would drop a bit (drop a few others on playing time).

        I would keep Gio where he is at based off my approach of using the average between ZiPS and Steamer. I like how it gives a talent level baseline for a player. People can then adjust accordingly.

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  2. Chicago Mark says:

    Any word on Jamie Garcia? Any thoughts?

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    • busch says:


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      • Jeff Zimmerman says:

        The only indicator I found was a Zone% under 47% for 2013 (46%) after being around 49% in 2011 and 2012.

        Release points ware good. Velocity showed a small drop over the last few games.

        He may be out against the season:

        “I would say at this point it’s worse,” Garcia said, when asked how the discomfort compared to what he dealt with last year. “There’s a lot more pain than last year. It started three starts ago. I was feeling great up until that point. I basically tried to take care of doing little things here and there and it went downhill getting worse and worse.”

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  3. Jeff says:

    Curious whether the Luebke dates have been impacted by the recent news that he’s stopped throwing. And Maybin’s not coming back until late May. But HUGE thanks for the series.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I moved the dates back a month. He should be looking to come off the DL next month (13 months after TJS). It may be even longer. I should have July and August instead.

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  4. Dancing Homer says:

    If Adam Dunn’s back was acting up last week, he found the right wacky tabacky to fix the problem. Got smoked in H2H b/c of that dude.

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  5. Brad Johnson says:

    What I want to know is how you iframed in that sheet. Is there a tool that does that or was it coded in?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I used SkyDrive and it has am embed feature for a set area.

      The only problem with SkyDrive is it locks up all the time and I have to copy and sheet and start from where I left off.

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  6. shapular says:

    You still have Luis Avilan in that table. He’s been back for a while.

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  7. shibboleth says:

    Pestano blown save tonight, looks like he served up one to Seager. Here’s hoping it’s just rust.

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  8. shibboleth says:

    Corbin, you magnificent son of a bench!

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  9. mymaus says:

    Ian Kennedy have injury issues? Velocity looks OK, but zone% is down from previous years, especially the last couple of games.

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