MASH Report (5/5/14)

• Velocity changes from 2013 to April 2014. Enjoy.

Chris Sale is working without a return timetable, but he will throw a bullpen session today to get a better idea of his progress.

Doug Fister may return either Wednesday or Friday to the Nationals.

Dane de la Rosa could be a nice deep league saves stash. Rosa didn’t look the best in his first appearance after his first DL stint. Reports right have his velocity up now though.

De La Rosa, the 31-year-old right-hander who’s rehabbing from irritation in his right s/c joint, is “very close” to starting a rehab assignment and “his velocity is significantly better right now,” the Angels’ skipper added.

The Angel have unexciting Joe Smith as their current closer. I would not be surprise if Rosa gets the closer role at some point during the season.

Mike Pelfrey (25 PAIN) went on the DL with a strained groin. He has some injury signs, but not as many as some pitchers on top of the PAIN leaderboard. His fastball velocity was down from 92.4 mph to 90.8 mph.

Additionally, he Zone% was down from 51.3% to 49.8%.

 

Tony Cingrani is on the DL also. He had both a small drop in velocity (-0.9 mph) and Zone% (-3.4% points). Again, not enough tobe among the worse offenders, but still both line up.

Bruce Chen‘s bad back put him on the DL. He saw is Zone% (-6.3% points) and velocity (-0.8 mph) drop. These drop may seem like quite a bit, but other pitchers are seeing even more of difference. Here are the declines from the top five rated starters by PAIN.

Cingrani, Pelfry and Chen each saw signs of possible lingering injuries, but other pitchers have more obvious signs.

• The Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu went on the DL for an inflamed shoulder. No decent signs existed to point to an injury so the Dodgers may have caught it early on. It may seem like his velocity was declining, but generally his velocity jumps around. He had almost an exact same pattern last season without a DL stint.

Stolmy Pimentel‘s trip to the DL should not be a surprise with a near four mph drop in fastball velocity.

• My final take on the Clayton Kershaw hysteria which will happen tomorrow. The Dodgers made Kershaw have a second rehab start after Kershaw said he was fine. In the second start, Kershaw’s fastball averaged 90 mph, so I am guessing the Dodgers noticed the drop in the first game and gave him another start. I could see owners scramble a bit if they see the drop, but as I have shown, Kershaw will probably be fine at the lower velocity.

Fastball Velocities for Pitchers Returning from the DL

Jacob Turner‘s was fine

Jake Arrieta‘s was down about one mph from last season.

Hisashi Iwakuma‘s was down 2.5 mph

Tim Collins‘ looked more inline with 2013 than he previously did.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings :

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

(Min 100 PA in 2014 and HURT > 100)

Name HURT ISO (2014) ISO (2013) Diff Contact (2014) Contact (2014) Diff
Will Venable 214 0.068 0.216 -0.148 70.5% 77.2% -6.7%
Curtis Granderson 186 0.096 0.178 -0.082 69.2% 69.5% -0.3%
David Wright 179 0.064 0.207 -0.143 79.5% 83.4% -3.9%
Brad Miller 158 0.135 0.154 -0.019 75.3% 82.7% -7.4%
Khris Davis 158 0.195 0.316 -0.121 65.6% 73.4% -7.8%
Ian Desmond 155 0.137 0.173 -0.036 69.3% 75.3% -6.0%
Nate Schierholtz 133 0.043 0.219 -0.176 78.3% 79.7% -1.4%
Brandon Phillips 132 0.098 0.135 -0.037 75.5% 79.4% -3.9%
Tony Sanchez 131 0.027 0.167 -0.140 63.8% 78.1% -14.3%
Marcell Ozuna 131 0.169 0.124 0.045 68.5% 75.3% -6.8%
Derek Jeter 125 0.031 0.063 -0.032 84.5% 85.8% -1.3%
Domonic Brown 121 0.068 0.222 -0.154 76.6% 79.1% -2.5%
Miguel Cabrera 112 0.150 0.288 -0.138 83.1% 80.8% 2.3%
Matt Carpenter 110 0.050 0.163 -0.113 87.5% 88.8% -1.3%
Starling Marte 109 0.087 0.161 -0.074 72.8% 75.4% -2.6%
Brett Gardner 108 0.061 0.143 -0.082 85.0% 86.8% -1.8%
Marlon Byrd 103 0.170 0.220 -0.050 71.8% 72.7% -0.9%
Hanley Ramirez 101 0.172 0.293 -0.121 78.6% 80.7% -2.1%

Thoughts on a couple of the players:

• Will Veneable is probably still dealing with a back issue he had right before the season started.

Curtis Granderson hurt his ribs earlier in the season running into a wall. The effects could easily be lingering.

Players on or Probably on the DL to Start the 2014 Season

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

On DL

Minor League Report




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


12 Responses to “MASH Report (5/5/14)”

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  1. Tom says:

    A couple weeks back you indicated that you would see if you could take a look at recovery from different kinds of thumb injuries when I asked whether R. Zimmerman’s broken thumb would sap his power (I hear a broken thumb is much better than other types of injuries to the thumb as long as it heals). Any thoughts?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Yes I did say I would and no I didn’t. I quickly ran the numbers on all thumb injuries and the here are the average declines:

      Year = season on the DL for thumb injury

      Stat: Year-1 to Year, Year to Year+1, Year-1 to Year+1
      AVG: -0.010, -0.002, -0.015
      OBP: -0.012, -0.004, -0.021
      SLG: -0.015, -0.028, -0.044

      The injury seems to linger even the year after the fact. I will write it up in more detail in the next report.

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      • Tom says:

        Thanks Jeff! Look forward to next post. In it could you use your analysis to give a quick example of how R. Zimmerman’s ROS numbers might look? Also, I’d be interested in knowing if his break leaves him better off vs another type of thumb injury.

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  2. tylerzx2002 says:

    Any idea on an ETA for Taijuan Walker? Everyone seems a bit mum lately on his return date though he did begin throwing today. Closer to June perhaps?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      According to the linked article in the report:

      “Teammate Taijuan Walker is scheduled to begin throwing Monday as he’s on a similar return after being shut down with an impingement in his right shoulder that put a halt to his Minor League rehab stint.”

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  3. blackmon says:

    According to Brooks, Shields does not seem to be down as much as you have written. He seems to be around the same velocity as last season and faster in May. Are you using the same data.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      The data could easily be different. Brooks reclassifies the pitches after they are released by MLB. I just use the raw data.

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  4. blackmon says:

    I should add that I love the site and your work

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  5. Brian says:

    Do you guys like Everth Cabrera or Jonathan Villar rest of the season? Thanks!

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Of the two, I like Villar more. They are both basically the same hitter, SB and High K’s, but Villar can hit a home run. I could see both being rosterable in all but the shallowest of leagues.

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  6. Swfcdan says:

    Kenley only averaged 92mph last year? No way Jose (Reyes), that must be wrong.

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  7. blackmon says:

    According to Brooks Kershaw was at 94 avg max 95.4. I mention because of your past articles. Sorry but I’m still confused on the Shields thing. Wouldn’t the max be the same? Are you worried about Shields at all? Thanks

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