MASH Report – (6/17/13)

Quite a bit injury news happened over the weekend. I will examine several pitchers returning from the D.L. and several more acting hurt.

Stephen Strasburg returned from the disabled list to make a start yesterday. The biggest concern for me was the 4 BB in 5 IP with a Zone% just over 47%. His overall. velocity was consistent with his past speeds.

He did see a 2 mph drop in velocity in the 5th inning he threw.

It was a wait and see type of start. Not bad enough for doom and gloom. Not good enough to give an “all’s clear”. Just perfect to wait and see how his next start goes.

Johnny Cueto‘s velocity was fine:

• So was Huston Street‘s

• And Ross Detwiler‘s

• And Shawn Camp‘s

• And Jake Westbrook‘s (finally in 2013

Charlie Morton bucked the trended with a three mph jump from before his Tommy John surgery.

REQUEST: I am trying to figure out the best way to scale HURT and PAIN. I previously have anything over 100 to be a player at risk or playing through an injury. Last week and this week, a 100 value is the max value. I am not sure I like it this way and am thinking ot moving back to 100 being the imaginary injury threshold. Any suggestions?

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (min 30 PA in 2013 and min 600 PA from 2010 to 2012):

Note: Previously, I used an IFFB% component in the ranking, from now on I will remove it as it masks some of the real power declines of some players.

Rank Name HURT
1 John Jaso 93.6
2 Ike Davis 79.8
3 B.J. Upton 76.8
4 Seth Smith 66.0
5 Matt Kemp 64.2
6 Albert Pujols 64.2
7 Alex Avila 63.6
8 Chris Johnson 56.4
9 Brandon Inge 55.2
10 Chris Iannetta 55.2
11 Justin Turner 51.0
12 Miguel Montero 50.4
13 Robert Andino 50.4
14 Mark Teixeira 49.8
15 Aramis Ramirez 48.6
16 Victor Martinez 48.6
17 Melky Cabrera 48.0
18 Garrett Jones 48.0
19 Lance Berkman 48.0
20 Kevin Youkilis 48.0
21 Cesar Izturis 47.4
22 Jeff Keppinger 45.0
23 Adrian Gonzalez 43.8
24 Mark Kotsay 42.0
25 Lonnie Chisenhall 42.0

Notes

Last Thursday, I mentioned the following on Mark Teixeira:

Mark Teixeira shows up after returning recently from the DL because of a wrist injury. Two stats are causing the high value, Contact% and IFFB%. His contact rate is way down from around 90% to 80% and cause his K% to jump from 16% to 33%. Besides not make contact, he is hitting a ton of weak pop flies. His IFFB% has gone from near 10% the last few seasons to 27% in 2013 … Teixera may still be feeling the effects of his wrist injury.

Teixera looks to maybe headed back on the DL. While not everyone on the HURT leader board is going to the DL, quite a high percentage do.

Aramis Ramirez (knee) is another player who missed time early in the season to the DL. His ISO (.148) is 50 points lower than any value over the past three seasons. Also his Contact% and Speed Score are down a bit. It would be nice to see Ramirez get some of his power back and get off the list.

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (min 20 IP in 2013 and 20 IP in 2012)

Rank Name PAIN
1 Jeff Locke 115.7
2 Jared Hughes 106.5
3 Jason Marquis 89.2
4 Lucas Harrell 83.8
5 Jonathan Broxton 78.7
6 Francisco Liriano 74.0
7 Alexi Ogando 73.0
8 Craig Stammen 65.9
9 Tanner Scheppers 65.0
10 Cory Gearrin 61.1
11 Esmil Rogers 56.6
12 Ryan Dempster 56.6
13 Wily Peralta 55.4
14 John Axford 55.1
15 Matt Moore 53.9
16 Luis Mendoza 49.3
17 Carlos Villanueva 47.5
18 Burke Badenhop 42.4
19 Jason Grilli 40.5
20 Brett Myers 40.5
21 Darin Downs 40.0
22 Michael Gonzalez 38.3
23 Cody Allen 37.2
24 Scott Feldman 36.5
25 Carter Capps 35.5

Notes

Jonathan Broxton is currently the 5th highest ranked pitcher in PAIN and is heading to the disabled list with an elbow strain. Broxton is the perfect example of a injury risk pitcher with his dropping velocity and inability to throw strikes.

• While not a corner stone of any fantasy team, Luis Mendoza is ranked 16th in PAIN and has been trying to pitch through a knee issue.

• An interesting name on the list is Jason Grilli. Grilli is currently dominating hitters with a 0.88 ERA and an even lower FIP of 0.52. The reason he is showing up on the list is a sub-47% Zone% which dropped almost eight percentage points from last season. It is not like he is walking a ton of batters with a 2.1 BB/9. His release points are one of the tightest I have seen for pitcher during a season. I see no reason to worry about him for now.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


10 Responses to “MASH Report – (6/17/13)”

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  1. Sgt Hulka says:

    What’s the deal with Fister? Every time Leyland throws him out there for that last extra inning he seems to lose it a little. Also, his run support for the last 4 games before the last one was not good for a Tigers team.

    Should I be concerned about Fister and look to deal him?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I don’t see any issues with him right. He is throwing around a 3 ERA, even his run estimators agree.

      He is pitching like a top 15 pitcher, not sure who you expect to be an improvement.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Giovani says:

    Wou;dn’t the early return date on Moreland be late June, as in this Friday? That’s what I saw here:

    http://trsullivan.mlblogs.com/2013/06/16/moreland-to-begin-rehab-assignment-monday/

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. olerudshelmet says:

    The range of the y-axis on the Strasburg graph seems a little excessive.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Jack says:

    Brandon Beachy’s late return date should be “Early July”, not “Early June”.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. SleepNowInTheFire says:

    I know how talented he is, but at this point, is Matt Moore droppable? I’m in a shallow 10 team Head to Head, and my two worst pitchers are Moore and Jose Fernandez. Do I cut Moore because I think he’s not going to do much better than a 4.00 ERA going forward or do I drop Fernandez because he probably won’t be pitching in my league’s playoffs? I currently hold the 4th and final playoff spot.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Moore is pulling a Lincecum (rapidly declining velocity and control) and even though Moore never had the chance to actually be good. I would drop Moore, ride Fernandez as far as you can, and then find a replacement for Fernandez when needed for the playoff by your league’s rules.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

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