MASH Report (6/19/14)

• Reader Cason Jolette asked about Jason Kipnis possibly still being hurt. He basically lost the entire month of May because of a strained oblique. Since coming back off the DL, his injury indication stats show he may still be injured.

Stat: Pre-injury, Post-injury
ISO: .160, .037
HR&FB Dist: 272ft, 257ft
K% (contact issues): 14%, 18%

It would be nice to see him hit more than two extra base hits over the time frame. For owners looking to see if he gets back, there two places I would look. Go to Baseballheatmaps.com’s individual player batted ball distance page, set it to the past couple weeks and see if his distance is improving.  Also, check out his ISO graph here at FG and look to see if it starts to final trend up (not stay constant).

• San Diego’s Nick Vincent isn’t going to populate many rosters, but he did give some good information on his injury.

Vincent said he was dealing with a bit of a sore elbow last month, and the fallout might have led him to drop his arm angle. That could have led to the shoulder fatigue, he said.

“I really don’t know if that put more stress on the shoulder or not,” Vincent said. “But me and [pitching coach Darren Balsley] watched video and the arm slot looked a little lower. We tried to get it back up, but we couldn’t.”

Going to Brookbaseball.net, here are his average vertical release points from this season.

A bit lower than last season, but I just don’t see much change. At least not enough to predict a possible injury.

• In redraft leagues, Mitch Moreland is droppable after having season ending surgery on his ankle.

Mark Trumbo is ready to begin a rehab assignment, but the team thinks he is still a month away from returning. Bet on the team.

Fastball Velocity Watch for Pitchers Returning From the DL

Gio Gonzalez‘s average fastball velocity was at a 3-year low. Additionally, only 45% of his pitches were in the strike zone. I don’t think he is 100% yet.

Miguel Gonzalez‘s velocity is fine.

Sergio Santos‘s velocity is at the low end of his past performance (93 mph vs 95 mph). Keep a close eye on him to see if it eventually creeps back up.

Here is how the average fastball velocity from pitchers who have thrown in June compare to the season’s first two months. Remember pitchers should expect to throw slower as starters (see Kevin Gausman).

Thoughts

Bryan Morris, the pitcher traded to the Marlins by the Pirates for a draft and a groundball machine, has seen a continuous decline in his sinker speed.

Yu Darvish had a stinker of a last game with his fastball velocity down to 91 mph and only 37% of his pitches in the strike zone. I know Oakland has had his number in the past, but it seems Davish was his worst enemy. Keep an eye on his next start to see if he can pull it together.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (introduction/explanation) :

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

Note: I compared Une 2014 production to a 2014 full season projection. Take these numbers with much skepticism as we are dealing with small samples.

Alfonso Soriano looks done. ISO down to .077. K% up to 46%. No power, no contact. Keep an eye on him if he can possibly turn it around.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

On DL

Minor League Report



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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first season in Tout Wars, he won the H2H league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


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chri521
Member

Holy wow, Betances is actually UP in velo? What was his previous high IP? I wonder if he’ll wear down by end of the year.

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