MASH Report (6/6/13)

A little bit of everything today, a few pitchers returning from the disabled list, HURT rankings (I will do a different subset of players every report) and a couple of injury related articles. I am hoping to introduce PAIN, the pitcher injury predictor on Monday.

• I found two injury-related articles interesting this week. The first is on the Nationals being too “macho” to go on the DL. The other deals with the intense schedule and the inability of players to keep up with it.

Josh Johnson returned from the DL and Ben Duronio covered his return in detail yesterday.

Andy Pettitte struggled in his first game back from the DL giving up 7 hits, 3 walks and only 3 strikeouts. I see several issues with him (release points and Zone%), but not much should be expected from a player about to turn 42 later this month. He is going to deal with injuries and struggle. Play the match-ups with and get whatever value you can out of him.

Alexi Ogando‘s fastball was at its pre-injury level, but he couldn’t keep it up and it dropped 3-4 mph from the 5th inning on:

Also, his release points were all over the place:

I still don’t think he is 100% and don’t expect continued production from him.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (no min of PA in 2013 and no min from 2010 to 2012):

BTW, thanks for all the suggestions for naming this metric. I went with HURT because it will be easy to relate to “H”itters and I will use PAIN for “P”itchers. I was really tempted to name the hitter one SWEENEY and the pitcher one BEDARD. Oh well.

Rank Name Injury Indez 2010-2012 PA 2013 PA Age
1 B.J. Upton 305 1883 201 28
2 Garrett Jones 182 1647 188 32
3 Tyler Moore 174 171 101 26
4 Ike Davis 169 1334 201 26
5 Luis Cruz 155 313 102 29
6 Nolan Reimold 154 505 113 29
7 Xavier Paul 154 491 123 28
8 DeWayne Wise 144 461 66 35
9 Cesar Izturis 142 719 69 33
10 Pete Kozma 139 104 216 25
11 John Jaso 135 1038 166 29
12 Mark Kotsay 120 770 62 37
13 Matt Kemp 119 1806 210 28
14 George Kottaras 116 582 53 30
15 Seth Smith 113 1372 200 30
16 Shane Victorino 111 1900 142 32
17 Justin Turner 109 690 86 28
18 Albert Pujols 104 2021 257 33
19 Yorvit Torrealba 99 1000 75 34
20 Blake DeWitt 99 769 4 27
21 Colby Rasmus 99 1685 213 26
22 Josh Willingham 98 1629 226 34
23 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 93 864 173 28
24 Jurickson Profar 91 17 48 20
25 Carlos Peguero 91 212 7 26

Notes

Ike Davis is towards the top of the list but there are no reports of a 2013 injury in the interwebs. One note I did find was he lied about the extent of his 2012 injuries. I would not trust he is 100% healthy and expect his struggles to continue.

Colby Rasmus is another regular near the top with no signs of injuries. Looking at his stats, he is showing some power increase in 2013, but his contact and speed numbers are way down. With him it may be more of a change in talent vice an injury.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


14 Responses to “MASH Report (6/6/13)”

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  1. Erik says:

    Whoa! Thanks for using my suggestions, Jeff!

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  2. Scotttttttttt says:

    Ryan Braun is playing through injury and should be included on your HURT chart.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      He is not taking a big enough hit to his stats to make the this list. I use IFFB% as one factor and it is way down this year.

      Thanks for the information, it is stuff like this I can use to tweak the numbers.

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  3. The Humber Games says:

    How did Profar end up on that list?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Super small sample from last year (I put no min of PA for this set). I am thinking like 100/1000 from now on. Just a different list.

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  4. mymaus says:

    MASH – one of my favorite features of FG. On Pettitte…his zone% was 49.4 for his last start and his velocity was among the highest over last couple of years. I know we’re dealing with SSS here but his BABIP was .389 for that game. Can I chalk that up as bad luck and trust him vs a weaker Seattle lineup? My other streaming choices are Jackson vPIT (Burnett) or Phelps @SEA (F. Hernandez).

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Pettitte’s start seemed an OK start. I see no reason to go with him again for now after the rest.

      I also like Jackson, but he is another pitcher with the BABIP and LOB bug.

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      • mymaus says:

        Do you mean “no reason NOT to go with him” or are you, in fact, advising against starting him?

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  5. Mario Mendoza says:

    Greinke’s FB velo has been down all year, and reached a career low in his last start.

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  6. SwitchRodeo says:

    Harper seeing Dr. Andrews about his knee? Any idea what this could be about? Worst case scenario?

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  7. mymaus says:

    Can you take a look at Kennedy? He’s looked horrible tonight. Even Shelby Miller is hitting him. I know he’s not great, but he’s usually not this bad. He’s gotta be hurt.

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    • mymaus says:

      P.S. Letting a pitcher bat after giving up 10 ER should be considered cruel and unusual punishment. Especially when he could be injured. Then they take him out after he bats!!!! Gibsoooooooooooooon!?!?!?!?!!?

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  8. Jeff says:

    Maybin’s back and played tonight.

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