MASH Report (7/5/13)

Just a quick update on injuries over the long holiday weekend.

• Darius Austin of MLB Injury News put together nice write up on how the Mets may handle Matt Harvey innings pitches as the season goes on with all the latest research.

Jeff Locke is having a break out season for the Pirates with 8 wins and a 2.12 ERA. Signs of regression exist with a .233 BABIP and with his ERA estimators near or above 4.00.

He was been a leader on my PAIN index because of an extremely low Zone% (41.4%). His last start was the first since the season’s start with a plus 47% Zone%. I would be selling him right now if possible.

Josh Willingham under went knee surgery for a lingering issue. All signs pointed to an injury, less power, contact and speed. While he hasn’t been on the top of the HURT rankings, he was 30th (min 100 PA in 2013, 500 PA 2010 to 2012).

He had signs of injury, but not to the level of other players. I feel I might not be giving people the information they need. I was wondering if people would just like a HURT and/or PAIN leader board or an embedded list with all the players to sort. Thoughts?

David Price returned pitching. Before the DL stint, his velocity was down 2 mph compared to 2012. It was at the same depressed level after returning.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in shutting out the Astros in his first game back. His arm is probably feeling the mileage of being a work horse over the past few seasons. His owners should expect a lower level of production from now on.

Henderson Alvarez made his 2013 Marlins debut on the 4th. While he didn’t walk a batter, he only struck out two. His velocity was down 1.5 mph from 2012.

Besides the drop in velocity, his release points were all over the place with over a one foot horizontal difference.

Finally, he was not able to keep up his velocity after the 3rd inning.

I would stay away from roster him until he shows the ability to throw with some level of consistency.

SLOWing (Swinging Late or Whiffing) Hitters (from 2012 to 2013 with a min 100 pitches in the heart of the strike zone)

Rank Name Difference (2013-2012) SLOW (2013) SLOW (2012)
1 Greg Dobbs 94.9 29.5 -65.4
2 Justin Upton 51.5 81.3 29.8
3 Nate Schierholtz 31.0 42.5 11.5
4 Starlin Castro 30.6 60.5 29.9
5 Rick Ankiel 30.5 58.8 28.3
6 Freddy Galvis 28.9 35.6 6.7
7 Evan Longoria 28.6 24.9 -3.7
8 Brett Gardner 28.3 43.0 14.7
9 John Buck 26.7 72.9 46.2
10 David Lough 26.0 9.1 -16.9
11 Ian Desmond 24.7 72.8 48.1
12 Ike Davis 23.8 49.6 25.8
13 Xavier Paul 23.2 19.9 -3.3
14 Matt Dominguez 20.8 17.7 -3.1
15 Conor Gillaspie 20.6 21.3 0.7
16 Eric Young 19.9 39.9 19.9
17 Logan Schafer 19.2 24.4 5.2
18 Jeff Keppinger 19.1 18.3 -0.8
19 Frederick Freeman 18.1 40.5 22.3
20 Ryan Doumit 18.0 19.9 2.0

Starlin Castro was a bright spot in the Cubs future plans, but his 2013 season has been a huge disappointment. Some of the decline can be attributed to inability to hit fastballs. His Pitch Value per 100 pitches went from 0.21 in 2012 to -1.96 this season. With his inability to hit the hard stuff, pitchers have increased the number of fastballs Castro sees from 33% last season to 38% this season. For a player needing to put the ball in play to have any value, not being able to hit a fastball is not a good sign

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


3 Responses to “MASH Report (7/5/13)”

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  1. Giovani says:

    Now you are just being stubborn with the Tulo timetable …

    Good stuff, as always, Jeff.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Dave Cornutt says:

    Paul Janish was activated a couple of weeks ago; he’s on the Braves’ active roster now. Jonny Venters had TJS on May 16th and is done for the year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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