MASH Report (8/12/13)

In my last MASH Report, I looked at the full season Zone% (Pitchf/x) laggards and found no additional useful information. Today, I have two new Zone% leaderboards, one for June, July and August and one for just July and August. A few more interesting name show up. Additionally, a bit more injury information was available to report on over the last few days.

Hanley Ramirez stated he will likely play with a shoulder injury for the rest of the season (source).

Ramirez jammed his right shoulder last Sunday. He completed a full workout Sunday but said he still felt discomfort when extending his right arm on his swing and when throwing to first base … “I’m just worried if I am going to keep feeling that every time I throw the ball,” he said. “If I have to play like that, I’ll play.” … Ramirez said the Dodgers’ medical staff has assured him the condition should improve over time. Indeed, Ramirez said, “I’m getting better every day.”

Owners should expect a drop off in production for a few weeks and maybe lasting until the end of the season. The main drop in production will likely be in the power department.

Neftali Feliz is on the comeback trail with his velocity currently on the low side (source)

He gave up a single and walked two batters over his 22-pitch outing that had him sitting in the 91-94 mph range with his fastball. He will make another rehab appearance with the Express on Saturday.

The 91-94 mph range is about where Feliz sat in his first two rehab appearances in the rookie league in Arizona, and his velocity is likely to get into the 94-96 mph range by the time he’s ready. It probably won’t rise into the high-90s or occasionally touch 100 mph, as it did in the past.

“The velo probably won’t come back like that until next year, which is normal,” Comstock said. “But he still has enough to get outs by sitting in the 94-96 range.”

The lower velocity could be offset, however, by Feliz rediscovering a feel for his changeup by throwing it more often during the early parts of his rehab. He still has a slider in his repertoire, too.

When Feliz was starting, his fastball ranged between 91 and 98 mph with the average set at 95 mph. If Feliz does comeback to pitch in the majors, expect his production to suffer.

Jonathan Broxton‘s post DL fastball average fastball velocity is up compared to earlier in the season.

Additionally, his Zone% before going on the DL, was under 45%. Since he has returned, his Zone% is over 55% for each of his relief appearances.

Ryan Vogelsong‘s velocity is at career low of 88 mph.

Additionally in his first start back, less than 40% of his pitches found the strike zone. I would stay away from starting him for now.

Jon Niese‘s velocity looked fine in first start back.

Additionally, his release points were all over the place in the return start.

I noted he had this problem back in June. He is another pitcher I would just currently stay away from.

Zone% Laggards

June, July and August Laggards (min 500 pitches or ~5 to 6 starts)

Pitcher Zone%
Jason Marquis 37.5%
Lucas Harrell 40.1%
Jeff Locke 40.6%
Kyle Gibson 40.7%
Craig Stammen 41.8%
Francisco Liriano 41.9%
Kevin Gausman 42.5%
Jake Westbrook 42.5%
Tanner Scheppers 42.7%
Wily Peralta 42.9%
Hiroki Kuroda 43.4%
Yoervis Medina 43.9%
Joe Saunders 43.9%
Tyson Ross 44.1%
Eric Stults 44.2%
Adam Warren 44.5%
Edinson Volquez 44.7%
Edwin Jackson 44.7%
Brian Duensing 44.8%
Tony Watson 44.9%
Josh Johnson 45.0%
Luis Mendoza 45.1%
Preston Claiborne 45.1%
Jerome Williams 45.3%
Jose Cisnero 45.3%
Zack Greinke 45.4%
Scott Feldman 45.4%
Esmil Rogers 45.5%
Yovani Gallardo 45.5%
Tim Hudson 45.5%

July and August Laggards (min 400 pitches or ~4 to 5 starts)

Lucas Harrell 39.6%
Jeff Locke 40.4%
Kyle Gibson 40.7%
Hiroki Kuroda 41.4%
Francisco Liriano 41.8%
Wily Peralta 42.5%
Tyson Ross 42.6%
Scott Feldman 43.6%
Jerome Williams 43.8%
Zack Greinke 44.1%
Yovani Gallardo 44.3%
Wade Miley 44.4%
Ricky Nolasco 44.4%
Josh Johnson 44.6%
Jake Westbrook 44.8%
Tim Hudson 44.8%
Jorge de la Rosa 44.9%
Joe Blanton 44.9%
Ivan Nova 45.0%
Eric Stults 45.0%
Garrett Richards 45.1%
Jacob Turner 45.7%
Tim Lincecum 45.7%
Gio Gonzalez 45.7%
Esmil Rogers 45.8%
Edinson Volquez 46.0%
Edwin Jackson 46.1%
Joe Saunders 46.2%
Tyler Chatwood 46.4%
Felix Hernandez 46.5%

• A few names continue to show up on the leader boards (Harrell, Locke, Liriano, etc), but a few other names show up.

Jacob Turner has never posted a good Zone%, but it has been horrible in 4 of his last 5 starts.

Over the same 5 starts, his velocity is down.

His results are also down in those 5 games with an ERA of 4.13 and 1.8 K/BB. In his earlier starts this season, his ERA was 2.33 and a 2.2 K/BB. He is struggling more and more as the season has gone on.

Wade Miley‘s Zone% has been falling over his last few starts.

Additionally, his velocity is down a bit.

I would keep an eye on him and hope he reverses the trend.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first season in Tout Wars, he won the H2H league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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